2008 Predications

[Nym90]

Obviously very early to say. If the Dems win in 2004, then obviously the incumbent president will be the Dem nominee. If Bush wins, then both races are wide open. Certainly the ruminating about the Republican nominee can at least begin, since no matter what happens in 2004 the GOP nomination will be open. Is there much of any chance that Cheney would run if Bush wins in 2004? It seems as though most people think he won't run, that he'd be too old, and that his health would be a problem. But, if Bush is the incumbent, it would be very hard to deny Cheney the nomination if he decides that he wants to run.
I agree that Jeb Bush and Frist would likely be the frontrunners for the GOP nomination if they chose to run (and assuming Cheney didn't run, or that GW Bush lost). As for the Dems, if the Dem nomination is available, then yes, Hillary Clinton would be a frontrunner, along with Al Gore if he wants to make another run. Also, if any of this year's Dem candidates put in what is considered a solid performance but don't win the nomination, they could still come back in 2008 (I'm thinking someone like Edwards).
I doubt either Pataki or Giuliani could win the GOP nomination. How would you conservatives on this board feel personally about Pataki or Giuliani as the nominee, given their liberal views on social issues? I'm curious as to what the GOP base would think about this.

[Nym90]

As for the GOP nomination in 2008, it all depends on who the establishment determines is their favored candidate. It seems like the GOP establishment always coalesces around one candidate early,  and they always win the nomination. The Dems, on the other hand, have much more wide open races for their nomination, it seems. Democratic primary voters aren't as likely to listen to party leaders when determining who to vote for as are GOP primary voters.
I still don't think Giuliani could win the nomination, but I might be wrong. There would be a large amount of opposition to his liberal positions on social issues. Yes, his "tough guy" image would help, but I can't see that being enough to convince the Christian Coalition to go along with him. For them, his position on abortion would be a litmus test, I think. A pro-life candidate would probably threaten to run in the general election as a 3rd party candidate. Unfortunately, abortion seems to be a real litmus test for people on both sides, and I think that the base vote in both parties would demand that both people on the ticket adhere to the party platform on that issue. There was even talk of a huge backlash against Bush if he had put Ridge on the ticket, because Ridge was pro-choice. A pro-choice GOP running mate wouldn't be as objectionable to the religious right, but I still think they would be threatening to walk out of the convention.

[Nym90]

Kennedy was the last sitting senator to be elected, yes. Johnson and Nixon have both been elected since then, and they were both Senators, but both had been Vice President first before becoming President.
It's probably no coincidence that Nixon was the last former Senator to be elected, as his administration greatly enhanced cynicism towards Washington politicians.
When Carter was elected, he was the first President elected who had been a Governor since Roosevelt. Clearly Watergate marked a shift in preference among Americans in their Presidents from career Washington politicians towards outside-the-beltway politicians.

[Nym90]

If the "Ahnuld" amendment passes, then maybe we could have a 2008 race in which neither party nominates someone born in the United States. The GOP nominates Schwarzenegger, and the Dems nominate Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm (born in Canada).
Be careful what you wish for, Orrin Hatch! :-)

[Nym90]

I agree that Santorum would be too conservative to win in a general election.

[Nym90]

Hutchison might be a strong candidate. Yes, she's intelligent and charming. She's too conservative for me, but she might be a formidable nominee. Dole is probably getting to be too old to make a run, but you never know.

[Nym90]

I doubt Bush would run again in 2008, unless 2004 was a very close and controversial race.
I do remember hearing during the recount in 2000 a lot of Republicans saying that even if Gore wins the recount, Bush will run again in 2004, due to the closeness and controversy of the race and the fact that he still would have beaten expectations given the strength of the economy. Likewise, even at that time Dems were saying that Gore shouldn't run if he ends up losing, since he ran a relatively poor campaign.