2008 Predications

[Inmate Trump]

Yea, that's right: 2008.  I know, this is mainly for 2004-related material, but I thought it'd be interesting to see what everybody thought about the election after next.

Such as, who will be in the Republican primary?  Who will be in the Democratic primary?  And who do you think will win both elections (primary and general)?

This is really early, I know.  But open elections where there's no incumbent seem more fun to play with, don't they?

[Inmate Trump]

Here's what I predict:

Republican Primary (possible):
Jeb Bush (FL)
Bill Frist (TN)
Rudolph W. Giuliani -or, not both- George E. Pataki (NY)
Condoleezza Rice (CA)

Democratic Primary:
Hillary Rodham Clinton (NY)

I think, if this is the way it is, Giuliani or Bush would win (although my vote would go to Frist).

Giuliani v. Clinton=Giuliani win.
Bush v. Clinton=Toss up.

[Inmate Trump]

First off it depends who wins the 2004 election.

Secondly it depends on the results of the 2006 elections.

Well, of course.  It also depends on every other event leading up to November 2008.  I'm not asking for some scholarly answer here or some factual response.  But as things stand right now, what could happen then?  Assuming that Bush is reelected (as it stands right now, there's a good chance he would be), who might the players in 2008 be?  There are plenty of predictions already going around about 2008, in the news, on the Internet, etc., I just thought I'd bring the hypothesizing to this board, because...well...it's fun.  :-)

[Inmate Trump]

Obviously very early to say. If the Dems win in 2004, then obviously the incumbent president will be the Dem nominee. If Bush wins, then both races are wide open. Certainly the ruminating about the Republican nominee can at least begin, since no matter what happens in 2004 the GOP nomination will be open. Is there much of any chance that Cheney would run if Bush wins in 2004? It seems as though most people think he won't run, that he'd be too old, and that his health would be a problem. But, if Bush is the incumbent, it would be very hard to deny Cheney the nomination if he decides that he wants to run.
I agree that Jeb Bush and Frist would likely be the frontrunners for the GOP nomination if they chose to run (and assuming Cheney didn't run, or that GW Bush lost). As for the Dems, if the Dem nomination is available, then yes, Hillary Clinton would be a frontrunner, along with Al Gore if he wants to make another run. Also, if any of this year's Dem candidates put in what is considered a solid performance but don't win the nomination, they could still come back in 2008 (I'm thinking someone like Edwards).
I doubt either Pataki or Giuliani could win the GOP nomination. How would you conservatives on this board feel personally about Pataki or Giuliani as the nominee, given their liberal views on social issues? I'm curious as to what the GOP base would think about this.

I don't think Cheney would run.  If he did, I think he'd lose to either Jeb Bush or Frist.  But that opens up something else: say both Cheney and Jeb ran--who would G.W. Bush endorse, his brother or his vice president?  Hm.

I think Edwards would be an ideal V.P., but he just doesn't strike me as presidential material (this looking at it from a non-partisan view).

Pataki couldn't win the nomination, but I think Giuliani could.  He's a liberal Republican, but even so.  If he did win the nom, he'd be a lock for the presidency, in my view.  Eventually, the Republican party will move closer to the middle/left, while the Democrats will move even more left.  This is evident with Schwarzenegger, Giuliani, Howard Dean, etc being the big names of their respective parties.  So, I would have no problem with a President Giuliani, but he probably wouldn't get my primary vote.

[Inmate Trump]

Well for starters I admit I may be a bit more moderate than a majority of GOP voters but I would definitely jump for Guiliani.
Even speaking as a neutral observer, his tough-guy image could go a long way to neutralizing his socially liberal attitude as regards GOP primary voters. In any event if he starts considering a run, he is smart enough to shift right; enough to take the primary.

Pataki is out nationally and he knows it! He may consider a vice-presidency but most probably I feel he would want to round up his career in the Senate.

Among all the names so far mentioned I would go for Guiliani in the primary.

I think only one of the two (Pataki, Giuliani) would run, not both.  If Pataki gets Giuliani to run for governor in 2006, as some say he's trying to do, then Pataki will go on to run for president.  If not, then Giuliani is free to run for the presidency and Pataki won't challenge him.  Whatever happens, I don't think they'll both run in the primary.  I wouldn't be to keen on a Pataki run...I just don't see him as good as the others...but I'd love to see Giuliani.  He'd beat the Democrat easily, and that's always fun to watch.

Someone mentioned Bill Owens (CO) as a possibility.  I've heard rumblings about him before.  At first it was for possible replacements for Cheney in Bush's reelection campaign.  But since Cheney's staying (much to my dismay), we'll see if Owens makes a run in 2008.  I can't wait!  This kind of stuff makes me salivate at the mouth from excitement; I'm just a geek like that.  :-)

[Inmate Trump]

Well, we all seem to agree about the potential frontrunners for the Republican and Democratic nominations.  Now here's something else fun to disucss.  Who might win in possible match-ups?  Obviously, if Hillary runs, she gets the nomination.  So let's assume she's the Democratic candidate.  Who would have the best chance against her?  Here are my predictions:

Bill Frist v. Hillary=Toss-up.
Pataki v. Hillary=Hillary
Condoleezza Rice v. Hillary=Hillary
Jeb Bush v. Hillary=Toss-up; leans Hillary
Giuliani v. Hillary=Giuliani
Powell v. Hillary=Toss-up; leans Hillary
Bill Owens v. Hillary=Toss-up; leans Hillary
Cheney v. Hillary=Hillary
Elizabeth Dole v. Hillary=Toss-up; leans Hillary

I know, I know.  In the end, all that we're discussing here doesn't matter.  But what the heck?  It's fun!

[Inmate Trump]

Hey Ryan!

Yea, Cheney shouldn't be on the ticket anymore.  Tom Ridge would be a good pick for V.P., you're right about that.  And having Pennsylvania's electoral votes would be a big plus.  Bush has got the south (unless Clark is the Democrat nominee), so he should concentrate on those other big states to the north and west.

The Hillary question.  First, I think it depends really on who the Republican nominee would be.  Frist v. Hillary would be a toss-up, probably leaning toward Frist.  He'd get the south, she'd get the north and some western states.  But Frist just doesn't seem like as tough presidential material as G.W. Bush.

Pataki seems a little weak to me, and I don't think he'd even win his home state (N.Y. would go to Hillary).

Rice, as much as I love and admire the woman, is a black woman.  Hillary is a white woman.  Voters would look down on both of them for these reasons (I wouldn't, but a lot would).  The "lesser of two evils," so to speak...especially to southern voters...would be the white woman.

Jeb Bush, as someone said earlier in this thread, would be too much like a dynasty and some might look down on this.  Who knows?

Giuliani would win New York, a few other northern states, most of the south, a lot of western states, and Hillary would lose the election.

Powell.  Again, the race factor.  A lot of southern white voters just wouldn't go for him, regardless of politics.

Bill Owens...maybe I was too easy to call it a Hillary-leaner.  He actually might be able to beat her.

Cheney just wouldn't win.  Period.

Elizabeth Dole v. Hillary.  Woman v. Woman.  Hillary has the bigger name.  While Dole might be able to win the south, she might lose key states like Florida, Arkansas, and others.  She also wouldn't be able to win some western and northern states that have a lot of electoral points.  She'd lose.

[Inmate Trump]

If Giuliani were to run for President, I think he will attempt to take Hillary Clinton's Senate seat in the 2006 election first.

Interesting. A victory here would be an absolute masterstroke for Giuliani since his biggest rival for 2008 would immediately fall by the wayside. Very interesting.

Do you think he would wait until 2006 to run for the Senate?  If he did that, and won, that *could* (but probably not) knock Hillardy completely off the Democratic "would-be presidents" list, which is a good thing.  On the other hand, why not run in 2004 against Charles Schumer?  I just saw this new Zogby poll that has Giuliani beating incumbent Senater Schumer 52% to 43%.  What other N.Y. Republican would get those kind of numbers, especially against a popular incumbent?  Go to Zogby.com to see the actual poll yourself.

But if Giuliani can beat Schumer, I almost think he should go for it and forget about Hillary in 2006 where he might not get the same kind of numbers.  Might, but might not--you gotta remember that this IS New York we're talking about here...they love Hillary.

By running and winning a seat in N.Y., Giuliani would still be in a position to launch a presidential campaign in 2008.  Also, he might be able to deliver some more votes for President Bush in N.Y. were he to run for senate in '04; obviously he wouldn't be able to do that in 2006.  I doubt Bush would ever win the state, but still...every extra vote counts, and I think Giuliani could deliver them.

[Inmate Trump]

As of right now here are the people I consider potential 2008 candidates ....

REPUBLICANS
-----------------
*Jeb Bush
*Bill Frist
*Rick Santorum
*Condeleeza Rice
*Roy Moore
*Tommy Thompson
*George Pataki
*Tom Ridge
*John McCain
*Elizabeth Dole

DEMOCRATS
---------------
*The incumbent (assuming they win in 2004)
*Hillary Clinton
*Al Gore
*John Edwards
*Dennis Kucinich
*Al Sharpton
*Evan Bayh
*Gary Locke
*Tom Vilsack
*Bill Bradley
*Russ Feingold

Assuming that Bush wins reelection and nothing dramatic happens to any of these folks ... I honestly think that most likely we will see the Republicans nominate Jeb Bush or John McCain (I doubt Giuliani or Powell will run) and the Democrats nominate Hillary Clinton or Al Gore.

Hm... That would interesting with a McCain campaign for president.  I dunno...I just don't think he could get past the primary--just like in 2000, whoever his closest rival is (assuming this person is more conservative than is McCain) would overwhelmingly beat him.  Even Jeb Bush (though neither of these guys, McCain, Jeb, would go on to win the general election).

I really do think either (but not both) Giuliani or Pataki would get in the race.  Pataki wouldn't win the primary--or the general, if he got that far-but Giuliani has the potential to kill all competition.

Rick Santorum could be interesting.  And he would most likely win his home state of Pennsylvania, which has gone to the Democrats the last few elections.  Hm.....