No Watergate and how future elections play out
CPT MikeyMike:
What-if Watergate doesn’t occur. Simply Richard Nixon and his administration simply didn’t break into the Watergate. Here’s the alternate history.
To begin a few notes about 1972 and early 1973.
1. The 1972 Presidential and Congressional Elections have no change. Nixon wins by one of the largest landslides in American History. Spiro Agnew is re-elected Vice President. The 93rd Congress will have 56-42-2 margin, in favor of the Democrats, in the Senate and the Democrats control the House with a 242-192-1 advantage.
2. Nixon and Henry Kissinger reach a peace record with North Vietnam on 23 January 1973.
Here’s the story….
The spring and summer of 1973 play out generally as is except for Watergate. Nixon does keep John Ehrlichman and H.R Halderman on his staff and remain there throughout his administration. By August 1973, Nixon’s approval rating is at 54%. Those polled gave Nixon high ratings in foreign policy especially with the SALT Treaty with the Soviet Union and the cease fire in Vietnam. Nixon did score below 45% approval in domestic policy, especially with the economy as inflation continues the plague the nation.
Nixon is plagued in the fall of ‘73 by a couple of issues.
1. Vietnam and The War Powers Act. By September 1973, President Nixon realizes that South Vietnam’s government is not effective and is asking the United States for increased aid. Nixon is more than willing to give assistance to South Vietnam. In September, Nixon announces that he will step up aid in South Vietnam. This in turn, triggers Congress to pass the War Powers Resolution, Nixon vetoes it immediately, and Nixon is successful in getting enough support by Republican and southern Democrats in congress to prevent the veto for being overridden. Nixon authorizes a 2,500 military advisor team to Saigon.
2. Spiro Agnew. As it actually happened, Spiro Agnew resigns on 10 October 1973 after he pleads no contest to charges of income tax evasion on $29,500 he received in 1967. With a decent approval rating, Nixon nominates his top choice for the Vice Presidency; former Treasury Secretary and former Governor of Texas, John Connally. The pick is criticized by some liberal Democrats who see Connally as a traitor after switching parties in 1972. The hearings for Connally were brutal from Democrats like Ted Kennedy, Henry Jackson and Robert Byrd. A filibuster is further attempted by Thomas Eagleton and Walter Mondale however the filibuster is overridden by a 64-36 vote and on 07 January 1974, Connally wins approval from the Senate by a 56-44 vote and a week later wins approval by a 271-164 vote in the House.
One last note to 1973: The Yom Kipper War happens as is actually did - no change to that and of course the 1973 Energy Crisis, which was triggered from the Yom Kipper War happens as it as well.
The end of 1973 give President Nixon somewhat of a beating. His approval rating on New Years Eve stands at 49%. 55% of Americans disapprove of Nixon sending military advisors back to Vietnam and are further discouraged by the energy crisis. After Connally is confirmed by congress, a Gallup Poll gives Connally a commanding lead in the race for the Republican nomination (leads Nelson Rockefeller by a 56%-26% margin) and a slight lead over Hubert Humphrey (35%-33%) and Ted Kennedy (37%-34%) in a presidential match-up.
1974 is plagued mainly by domestic issues such as inflation. Nixon, like Jerry Ford actually did, devised a campaign called WIN (Whip Inflation Now) which did little to control the situation. In August, Nixon attempts to place another 90 day price freeze which further compounds the problem. Nixon is able to temporally smooth the energy crisis by lowering the national speed limit to 55MPH.
By the fall of 1974, Nixon’s approval rating stands at 44%. Mainly based off of soaring inflation rates. Democrats are positioned to make huge gains in the mid-term elections and all appears that way until the week before the election when President Nixon collapses while campaigning for congressional candidates in San Diego. Nixon’s phlebitis, which he was suffering from since June, formed a blood clot in his lungs and needed emergency surgery in order to save his life. With the news turning away from the campaign and turning into Nixon’s illness, the Democrats hopes for making gains in congress looked less promising. Vice President Connally, campaigning in 15 states in the last 7 days used the rally theme “Let’s win this one for the President.” The response turned out to help the Republicans on election night.
1974 mid-term election: Republican, who looked like they would lose 25-30 seats, only lose 6 seats in the House. In the Senate, the Democrats, who hoped to gain 6-8 seats, do not gain a seat.
The 94th Congress looks as follows:
House:
Democrats: 249
Republicans: 186
Senate:
Democrats: 56
Republicans: 42
Other: 2
Some notes to present day. Patrick Leahy and John Murtha, who won in 1974, lose their initial election. Also, Democrats lose in the Senate, Birch Bayh and George McGovern to defeat.
Next - Nixon and South Vietnam (Does he save it?) and the race for 1976 heats up.
What do you guys think so far?
Wakie:
No Watergate also means no Halloween Massacre which means no HW Bush as CIA head.
CPT MikeyMike:
Absolutely correct. Some of those key players will play out in this story at some point - stay tuned!
AndrewTX:
I'm liking it.
TommyC1776:
yeah this it is great. cool.
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