Most vulnerable House freshmen

[Mr.Phips]

He still will be President.  Do you not think that Clinton being President hurt Democrats in 2000 or Johnson being President hurt them in 1968?

Yeah, but remember that both men had their respective Vice Presidents running in those years.

It also helped we ran a conservative Democrat who fits the district rather than a Rendell type.

Oh, it most certainly did. I'm not making the argument that Altmire isn't a good fit ideologically. However, I don't think he is as well liked as Hart is in that area. I really believe that the voters of that district will likely "forgive and forget" Hart for her mistakes in 2006.

Do you think Hart would have beaten Ron Klink if she ran against him in 2000 if he didn't run for Senate?  Because Klink and Altmire's ideologies are almost identical.

It would have been a close race. Hard to say who would have won.

The answer is that Klink would have won handily. 

[Keystone Phil]

Klink would have won handily. 

I wouldn't be too sure of that. Hart was very popular. An easy win was the win he had over current State Representative Mike Turzai in 1998 when he took 64% of the vote. Hart was much more popular than Turzai. It would have been a real battle. The Bush - Gore race would have made it tight, too. Bush won the district with 51% to Gore's 47%.

[Mr.Phips]

Klink would have won handily. 

I wouldn't be too sure of that. Hart was very popular. An easy win was the win he had over current State Representative Mike Turzai in 1998 when he took 64% of the vote. Hart was much more popular than Turzai. It would have been a real battle. The Bush - Gore race would have made it tight, too. Bush won the district with 51% to Gore's 47%.

Klink would have gotten at least 54%.  He was the incumbent and people trusted him.

[Sensei]

Tim Mahoney WILL lose in 2008, no doubt about it.

[Keystone Phil]

Tim Mahoney WILL lose in 2008, no doubt about it.

Why do you say that? I know the district is very Republican but are the candidates lining up on the GOP side strong?

[Adlai Stevenson]

Tim Mahoney WILL lose in 2008, no doubt about it.

Why do you say that? I know the district is very Republican but are the candidates lining up on the GOP side strong?

The District is not very Republican.  Bush won it 54%-46% in 2004 and by 53%-47% against Al Gore. 

[Keystone Phil]

Tim Mahoney WILL lose in 2008, no doubt about it.

Why do you say that? I know the district is very Republican but are the candidates lining up on the GOP side strong?

The District is not very Republican.  Bush won it 54%-46% in 2004 and by 53%-47% against Al Gore. 

Actually, I just checked and if I read it correctly, Gore won with 51% of the vote in the district. Very odd since the media has always noted this is a very Republican seat. I wonder what the party registration breakdown is.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Gore won the old seat before redistricting. The seat after redistricting voted about 52% for Bush.

The problem is that while the seat is basically split down the middle politically, it's very partisan, Republicans vote Republican, Democrats vote Democratic. I still think Mahoney will win if the GOP nominates a far right winger though.

[Mr.Phips]

Tim Mahoney WILL lose in 2008, no doubt about it.

Why do you say that? I know the district is very Republican but are the candidates lining up on the GOP side strong?

The district is not very Republican at all.  Bush only got 52% and 54% in 2000 and 2004 and Clinton carried it in 1996.

[Mr.Phips]

Gore won the old seat before redistricting. The seat after redistricting voted about 52% for Bush.

The problem is that while the seat is basically split down the middle politically, it's very partisan, Republicans vote Republican, Democrats vote Democratic. I still think Mahoney will win if the GOP nominates a far right winger though.

Being the incumbent, Mahoney should be able to pick off at least a few of those partisan Republican voters(likely the more elderly ones, especially when the Social Security issue comes up).

[Keystone Phil]

Tim Mahoney WILL lose in 2008, no doubt about it.

Why do you say that? I know the district is very Republican but are the candidates lining up on the GOP side strong?

The district is not very Republican at all.  Bush only got 52% and 54% in 2000 and 2004 and Clinton carried it in 1996.

Ok, I got that...

Tim Mahoney WILL lose in 2008, no doubt about it.

Why do you say that? I know the district is very Republican but are the candidates lining up on the GOP side strong?

The District is not very Republican.  Bush won it 54%-46% in 2004 and by 53%-47% against Al Gore. 

Actually, I just checked and if I read it correctly, Gore won with 51% of the vote in the district. Very odd since the media has always noted this is a very Republican seat. I wonder what the party registration breakdown is.

[Democratic Hawk]

Tim Mahoney WILL lose in 2008, no doubt about it.

Why do you say that? I know the district is very Republican but are the candidates lining up on the GOP side strong?

The district is not very Republican at all.  Bush only got 52% and 54% in 2000 and 2004 and Clinton carried it in 1996.

Ok, I got that...

Tim Mahoney WILL lose in 2008, no doubt about it.

Why do you say that? I know the district is very Republican but are the candidates lining up on the GOP side strong?

The District is not very Republican.  Bush won it 54%-46% in 2004 and by 53%-47% against Al Gore. 

Actually, I just checked and if I read it correctly, Gore won with 51% of the vote in the district. Very odd since the media has always noted this is a very Republican seat. I wonder what the party registration breakdown is.

As of 10 October, 2006, FL-16 had 202,702 Republicans; 171,474 Democrats and 85,913 NPAs, whom I assume are Independents

Dave

[Sensei]

Mahoney still almost lost with Foley's name on the ballot.

[Mr.Phips]

Mahoney still almost lost with Foley's name on the ballot.

People knew they were voting for Negron.