Would Giuliani spark a 3rd party challenge from the right?

[Keystone Phil]

Very possible but I really can't say for sure right now. What many Rudy fans don't realize is that this could really hurt the GOP, too. I don't think the candidate would receive a significant amount of the national popular vote but it could be enough to swing a few states. But I realized in the past couple of days that arguing with Rudy supporters is worse than having a brain tumor. Some of those people are just flat out stupid.

Hey, nice to see that you realize that.

What the Giuliani supporters fail to realize is all the moderate voters who voted for Kerry and Democratic candidates last election are not pro-war and not going to vote for a pro-war candidate. Their ideal candidate is not a pro-choice pro-war candidate.

Giuliani will do well among moderate voters. 2008 won't be all about Iraq. That being said, he is getting way too much hype over being this super candidate. I'm tired of hearing about Thompson being overrated when Rudy is even worse.

[Likely Voter]

rudy may be a paper tiger. I think he will get 'swiftboated' and some one is going to trot out the NYPD and NYFD to say real nasty things about him.

just imagine the commercial with the crying widow surrounded by NYFD 'hero of 9/11' firefighters talking about what a bad man Rudy is. How many people even know they hate his guts. They were wearing No to Rudy buttons at their convention and he was the only candidate they didnt invite.

if Karl Rove tought political operatives anything...attack your opponents strength. If you want to take Rudy down you got to take away 9/11. After that he is just a cross-dressing big city east cost liberal mayer with a lot of ex wives

[NDN]

Very possible but I really can't say for sure right now. What many Rudy fans don't realize is that this could really hurt the GOP, too. I don't think the candidate would receive a significant amount of the national popular vote but it could be enough to swing a few states. But I realized in the past couple of days that arguing with Rudy supporters is worse than having a brain tumor. Some of those people are just flat out stupid.

Hey, nice to see that you realize that.

What the Giuliani supporters fail to realize is all the moderate voters who voted for Kerry and Democratic candidates last election are not pro-war and not going to vote for a pro-war candidate. Their ideal candidate is not a pro-choice pro-war candidate.

Giuliani will do well among moderate voters. 2008 won't be all about Iraq. That being said, he is getting way too much hype over being this super candidate. I'm tired of hearing about Thompson being overrated when Rudy is even worse.

I don't think he could win at this point.

Giuliani isn't just saying we need to finish the job in Iraq. He's saying that Iraq was a good idea, that torture is OK with him, that we need a National ID, that he will use nuclear weapons on Iran if need be. Those stances might woo over Conservatives that would otherwise have stayed home. But none of them are going to play well with the average, middle of the road voter.

To be honest, I don't think the GOP can win in 2008 unless it's candidate runs as a reformer (re: distances himself from Bush) and/or on a "peace with honor" type platform. None of this 'stay the course' rhetoric coming from the current front runners is going to work. But even that could mean defeat, if it alienates enough of the right..

[StateBoiler]

Here's a scenario I think might happen. This scenario would be contingent on Giuliani winning the Republican nomination for President.

-Point One: I think there's a number of Republican operatives that have the assumption they will lose 2008 regardless due to blowback from the Bush presidency.

-Point Two: Giuliani will be pressed by some Republicans cause they want to defeat the Democrats and think they cannot nominate the typical conservative that will be able to do the job of winning the election because he is moderate on some issues.

-Point Three: Religious conservatives, mindful of Point One, will defect temporarily to a Constitution Party-type candidate (if not that party). This will serve two purposes.

Purpose One: The Democrat, probably a liberal, will win. What can be better for bankrolls and recruiting for religious conservatives than a liberal President? If Giuliani won this hypothetical election, religious conservatives would have just as much disgruntlement, but it would be muted cause of the conundrum of "Who else could we support, the Democrat?"

Purpose Two: If a Giuliani candidacy fails without these religious conservatives, it would reinforce that the Republican Party cannot win without them. And we know that Republicans cannot and will not ridicule this group. So these religious conservatives could force themselves to have more say-so in future nominations.

An example of Purpose Two is Ralph Nader's 2000 performance showing liberal disgust with "The Third Way", and Howard Dean's underdog challenge forcing the rest of the Democratic Party left in 2003. A perfect example of the effect of this is Joe Lieberman. He went from being accepted by acclimation as his party's Vice Presidential nominee at the 2000 Democratic Convention to being kicked out of the party and is now shouted down by Democratic activists and politicians alike.