2000 White Map & 2000-2008 White Swing/Trend Map

[Tender Branson]

A map of how Whites voted in 2000, using ABC Exit Polls:

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/2000vote/general/exitpoll_hub.html

Next I'll do a 2000 vs. 2008 trend map among Whites ...

[bgwah]

Washington =

[Meeker]

I'm assuming green is a tie?

[Tender Branson]

White Trend Map from 2000 to 2008:

(It was really fast to calculate because the swing was also the trend ... )

Data Table and shade description:

[Tender Branson]

I'm assuming green is a tie?

Yepp

[bgwah]

So, which states have had their white populations voting Democrat for the longest period of time? Every state had their white population vote Republican in 1984, obviously. Mondale's win in Minnesota was small enough that minority votes probably put him over the top with Reagan narrowly winning the white vote. But MN whites have almost certainly been Democrat every election from 1988 onwards. I think it's safe to say Washington whites have been Democrat since 1988.

MA and RI seem like the only other ones that could possibly go back to 1988. Maybe Hawaii, but I doubt it.

[minionofmidas]

Obama's margin over Gore coming from increasing numbers of Hispanics and Asians on the voter rolls, swings among them, and increased turnout among Hispanics and Blacks alone?
Yeah, sorry. Day I buy that is the day I buy Bering Straits beachfront property.

Now, a White swing barely within the Margin of Error of that... that's perfectly reasonable.

[Nym90]

Obama's margin over Gore coming from increasing numbers of Hispanics and Asians on the voter rolls, swings among them, and increased turnout among Hispanics and Blacks alone?
Yeah, sorry. Day I buy that is the day I buy Bering Straits beachfront property.

Now, a White swing barely within the Margin of Error of that... that's perfectly reasonable.

Maybe there was actually a reverse Bradley effect in exit polls with white voters in 2008? I know some pollsters had theorized this may occur.

[phk]

Interesting, a lot of NE whites have actually trended R since 2000.

[Alcon]

Interesting, a lot of NE whites have actually trended R since 2000.

Is that remotely surprising when you look at Long Island and similar areas?

[DariusNJ]

Wow, 26% of Alabama whites voted for Gore?

[You kip if you want to...]

Wow, 26% of Alabama whites voted for Gore?

Makes me wonder how much Clinton got.

[Nym90]

Wow, 26% of Alabama whites voted for Gore?

Makes me wonder how much Clinton got.

Probably about 35 percent or so, I'd guess, just from looking at the county maps and such.

If Clinton had gotten the black turnout that Obama got, he could well have won the state. Same thing for Mississippi, which he only lost by 5 points in 1996.