What states does Bloomberg win at 33%

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Let's imagine the nation popular vote in the 2008 presidential race looks like this:
Clinton: 33%
Thompson: 33%
Bloomberg: 33%
Other: 1%

In this scenario, what states does Bloomberg win?

My guess: (in approximate order of Bloomberg victory margin)
New Jersey
Connecticut
Maine
New Hampshire
Oregon
Washington
Minnesota
Wisconsin

[Jacobtm]

I can't imagine the popular vote being split 3 even ways and 1 candidate getting only 8 states...

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

So what other states does he win?

I think even if Bloomberg gets 33% support, if the other candidates also poll 33%, their support will be more geographically concentrated than Bloomberg's, allowing one of the other two two still win most states.   

He probably would win a couple more states, I'm just not sure which ones.  But I'm pretty sure he would still finish a distant third in the electoral college.

[jacob_101]

It's really hard to imagine him getting anywhere near that % but if he did, I think he would win.....

Connecticut
New Jersey
Rhode Island
Massachusetts
Vermont
Maine
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Illinois
California
Washington
Oregon

[Speed of Sound]

I just dont see Bloomberg winning PA. Hes a social liberal and econimic centrist, which really doesnt match PA politics at all.


The Bloomberg voted would have to be so concentrated to make this that I dont see him winning much more than like New York and New Hampshire....maybe Nevada.

[bbt]

Bloomberg would fail to hit 20% in any state in '08

[muon2]

If the 1992 election had a 14% increase for Perot, 10% decrease for Clinton, and 4% decrease for Bush to create an even split, and those percentages were applied to each state then the result would be: Clinton 197, Bush 204, Perot 137.