Ealing Southall and Sedgefield by-elections thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Now that the writs have been moved, this thread be created.

[Harry Hayfield]

Both by-elections will be held on July 19th 2007. Based on the 2005 general election, Sedgefield should declare at about 1.30am at the earliest (dependent on number of candidates and turnout), Ealing, Southall should declare at 1.00am (again dependent on candidates and turnout).

I will be contacting both councils on Monday to ask about the electorates and will post that figure when they tell me.

[Verily]

The Conservative candidate in Sedgefield will be Graham Robb. There has been a lot of buzz about Reg Keys running for the Lib Dems in Sedgefield, but nothing is confirmed.

IMO, the Conservatives should screw up the nomination papers and give the Lib Dems a free run at Sedgefield. The Conservatives stand absolutely no chance of winning (especially with an aristocratic French translator as their candidate), but Labour losing Sedgefield to the Lib Dems would be a problem for Brown. (And the perfect storm for the opponents of Labour would be Labour losing Ealing Southall to the Conservatives and Sedgefield to the Lib Dems.)

[Ben.]

And the perfect storm for the opponents of Labour would be Labour losing Ealing Southall to the Conservatives and Sedgefield to the Lib Dems.

mmm... that would be nice (wont happen... but it'd be nice ).

As it stand i think Tory efforts are almost certain to be concentrated on London if by dint of geography rather than anything else (its in London, in an area were they did very well in the local elections and they can call upon a massive activist base in the capital)...

Half the battle in a by-election is establishing your candidate as the "local candidate" and your campaign as the "challenging" campaign, LibDem's are masters at this and it'd signal a radical improvement in the Tory by-election machine if they manage to do this and come second in Ealing...   

[Democratic Hawk]

And the perfect storm for the opponents of Labour would be Labour losing Ealing Southall to the Conservatives and Sedgefield to the Lib Dems.

mmm... that would be nice (wont happen... but it'd be nice ).

Ben,

While I can understand you wanting the Tories to win Ealing Southall, surely, you can spare me any niceties in wishing the Lib Dems any success in Sedgefield !

Dave

[Ben.]

Sorry Dave... i forgot about Sedgefield being right next to your patch. While i might not want a boost for Brown as it's your 'neck of the woods' I hope (and frankly expect!) you'll hold off any 'yellow peril'.

Both the LibDems and the Tories will focus on Ealing in all likelihood (Tories have got started early which makes a nice change) however it's a by-election and the LibDems will go in "hammer and tongs", but it's still Labour's to lose IMHO (something thats even more the case in Sedgefield). 

So an unofficial... best of luck mate!      

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There has been a lot of buzz about Reg Keys running for the Lib Dems in Sedgefield, but nothing is confirmed.

He has no ties to the area and didn't exactly do that well in 2005. The most likely LibDem candidate is Greg Stone (a Newcastle counciller, and not exactly a very strong candidate himself).
I've heard some interesting names mentioned for Labour candidate though.

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Um... why would they want to do that?

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The LibDems don't stand much of a chance either. The thing about Sedgefield is that in a majority of the constituency, only one party ever polls above single digits. There are plenty of non-Labour voters in the Darlington commuter villages and in Sedgefield itself, but not in Newton Aycliffe (the biggest town in the constituency). And there are even less of them in the string of old pit villages between Spennymoor and Peterlee (where during General Elections, little red signs sprout up like weeds just about everywhere).
In all honesty, I wouldn't be entirely surprised if the BNP finished second in Sedgefield.

[Democratic Hawk]

Sorry Dave... i forgot about Sedgefield being right next to your patch. While i might not want a boost for Brown as it's your 'neck of the woods' I hope (and frankly expect!) you'll hold off any 'yellow peril'.

Both the LibDems and the Tories will focus on Ealing in all likelihood (Tories have got started early which makes a nice change) however it's a by-election and the LibDems will go in "hammer and tongs", but it's still Labour's to lose IMHO (something thats even more the case in Sedgefield). 

So an unofficial... best of luck mate!      

Cheers Ben ,

Sometimes I wonder whether Labour and the Conservatives should be, somehow, working to rid Britain of the 'yellow peril'

High-time voters woke up to the fact that the LD's aren't quite the nicey-nice, inoffensive, centre - left/right party they'd have them believe

I'll be doing my bit in Sedgefield

Dave

[Ben.]

What really gets me is the slightly "saintly" air that the LibDems seem to assume while they engaged in distortions, lies and character assassinations... i suppose in the short term its very effective politics and wins you by elections against the two major parties but in the wider scheme of things it just drags the whole process further into disrepute.     

[Democratic Hawk]

What really gets me is the slightly "saintly" air that the LibDems seem to assume while they engaged in distortions, lies and character assassinations... i suppose in the short term its very effective politics and wins you by elections against the two major parties but in the wider scheme of things it just drags the whole process further into disrepute.     

Very true, Ben, very true

Dave

[afleitch]

What really gets me is the slightly "saintly" air that the LibDems seem to assume while they engaged in distortions, lies and character assassinations... i suppose in the short term its very effective politics and wins you by elections against the two major parties but in the wider scheme of things it just drags the whole process further into disrepute.     

True.

However my personal preference is for Labour to loose in both seats to whoever is the strongest challenger (as in all cases parties like the BNP are the obvious exception!) That may end up being the Liberal Democrats. When it comes down to it, I would rather have the Liberal Democrats pick up than for Labour to hold from now right through to the next GE. Sorry Dave. I tend to support the use of more heavy political fire against Brown than I did against Blair.

Besides Mingthuselah will be up for the chop should they perform poorly on the night and I'd rather he stayed put as leader for as long as possible

[Democratic Hawk]

Liberal Democrats select Nigel Bakhai for Ealing Southall

http://www.libdems.org.uk/news/nigel-bakhai-ealing-southall.12842.html

Dave

[Verily]

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Um... why would they want to do that?

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The LibDems don't stand much of a chance either. The thing about Sedgefield is that in a majority of the constituency, only one party ever polls above single digits. There are plenty of non-Labour voters in the Darlington commuter villages and in Sedgefield itself, but not in Newton Aycliffe (the biggest town in the constituency). And there are even less of them in the string of old pit villages between Spennymoor and Peterlee (where during General Elections, little red signs sprout up like weeds just about everywhere).
In all honesty, I wouldn't be entirely surprised if the BNP finished second in Sedgefield.

I don't hold any delusions that the Lib Dems are likely to win in Sedgefield, either, but even the Lib Dems doing an inch better than the Tory, LD and Keys votes from 2005 combined would be seen as a blow to Brown when he's currently ahead of Labour's 2005 numbers in the polls.

The Tories would want to give the Lib Dems a free run because the Lib Dems can do better than the Tories there; the key is that the Tories haven't a hope of even making Sedgefield close (can't squeeze the Lib Dem vote effectively, can't win over Labour or Keys voters) while the Lib Dems can at least pull within 10% of Labour. Bad news for Labour is good news for the Conservatives, so the Conservatives would want to pull out of Sedgefield. IIRC, Labour used this same by-election strategy against the Conservatives in safe Conservative seats in the 90s.

I would be very surprised if the BNP finished second in Sedgefield.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The guy they ran last time IIRC. An interesting choice given his less-than-stellar record in local elections.

Despite the surname he's based out in the west of the seat, btw. Going to be a "fun" race; hopefully the very short campaign period means that the nastiness that has defaced recent by-elections will have less time to build up.

Hah. Maybe in Sedgefield, but West London politics is nasty, full stop.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh, and the three candidates most likely to get the Labour nod in Sedgefield (barring the national party parachuting someone in) are Phil Wilson, Dr Simon Henig and Pat McCourt. McCourt is the furthest Left of the three (and is the son of a well known local politician), Wilson is the favourite (and is apparently quite close to John Burton; Blair's former agent and a quintessential Durham machine politician), while Henig is the Deputy Leader of Chester-le-Street District Council, a political academic and the son of Stan Henig (M.P for Lancaster in the '60's) and Ruth Henig (now a Life Peer).

[Verily]

UKIP will be wasting its time in both by-elections. They didn't even stand in Ealing Southall in 2005. I can't imagine them winning more than 2% in either by-election, and that may be generous.

http://ukip.org/ukip_news/gen12.php?t=1&id=3089

[Verily]

The Greens have renominated Sarah Edwards, their 2005 candidate, in Ealing Southall. She pulled a sizeable 4.6% in 2005, nearly retaining her deposit. The Lib Dems and Labour will obviously both be trying to squeeze her vote.

[Democratic Hawk]

http://www.thisisthenortheast.co.uk/display.var.1514181.0.five_names_put_forward_in_search_for_blairs_successor.php

The five Labour prospective candidates for Sedgefield are: Simon Henig (Deputy Leader of Chester-le-Street DC), Melanie Johnson (former MP for Welwyn Hatfield), Pat McCourt (Deputy Leader of Ferryhill TC); Alan Strickland (former President of Oxford University Student's Union, hails from Newton Aycliffe) and Phil Wilson

The only one I know, personally, is Simon Henig

Meanwhile, in Ealing Southall:

http://www.libdemvoice.org/tories-hit-by-defection-in-by-election-seat-of-ealing-southall-958.html

Brij Mohan Gupta, the Deputy Chair (Political) of Ealing Southall Conservatives has defected to the Lib Dems

Dave

[Verily]

Andrew Spence will be running for the BNP in Sedgefield. Surprisingly, they didn't manage to run a candidate last time.

[Keystone Phil]

Since no one answered it in the other thread, I'll post it here:

Any chance that Reg Keys runs as a Labour candidate? How about another independent run?

[Ben.]

Any chance that Reg Keys runs as a Labour candidate? How about another independent run?

Not a chance... to coin a phrase, wouldn't happen in a month of sundays!

If he runs again as an indy it'll probably be with the backing of 'respect' and assorted lefties/Trots wont get anywhere close to contention though.

However looking at the local elections in Sedgefield is interesting, in a by-election there is little to suggest the potential for a LibDem surge and there no reason why the low turnout couldn't see a respectable second place for the Tories IMHO.   

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Keyes has no links to the area (he lives near Bala IIRC).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour have selected Wilson in Sedgefield; he looks like a strong candidate (mind you, so did some of the other names) and shouldn't have any trouble becoming an M.P.

And the Labour shortlist in Southall reads as follows:

1. Jo Sidhu
2. Virendra Sharma

Sonika Nirwal didn't make the shortlist; to the surprise of many. Sidhu is a lawyer (I think) while Sharma is a longtime local counciller and is now the favourite for the Labour nod.

Another candidate that failed to make the shortlist (Gurcharan Singh) is rumoured to be thinking about standing as an Independent; no idea whether that's just idle speculation or not though.

[Verily]

The English Democrats will be running in both seats, Stephen Gash in Sedgefield and one of two candidates on a shortlist in Ealing Southall. After a dismal performance in what should be English Democrat "heartland", Bromley and Chislehurst, they will have no influence at all.

The Liberal Democrats are running Greg Stone in Sedgefield.

[Ben.]

The Liberal Democrats are running Greg Stone in Sedgefield.

Was that the bloke who ran in Newcastle Central at the general election... or am i getting him confused with someone else?