Ealing Southall and Sedgefield by-elections thread

[minionofmidas]

I wonder how the BNP would have faired in ES had they ran a candidate. UKIP's vote was derisory both here (0.78%) and in Sedgefield (1.92%)

Dave

Badly.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wonder how the BNP would have faired in ES had they ran a candidate. UKIP's vote was derisory both here (0.78%) and in Sedgefield (1.92%)

Dave

Badly. The sort of demographics that the BNP need to get a good vote has never existed in Ealing and don't exist in Southall... anymore.
Southall was actually an early stronghold of the post-war far-right with the original BNP polling over three thousand votes 1964 and with some local fascist party often winning seats on the local council. But these people moved to whiter places decades ago.

Talking of '64, here's the result for that year: Lab 47.9%, Con 42.9%, BNP 9%. This being back when the constituency was just Southall itself (which was a safe Labour seat from the War until a sharp swing to the Tories in 1959).

[Ben.]

Right, having only just got back today after a week down in Ealing (was awake and working my arse off for twenty four hours straight, from dawn raid leafleting till the declaration this morning), I'll offer my initial reaction...

I got down to Ealing the day after "the photo" came out, the immediate impact of which IMHO was to wobble what had been a very solid Tory vote in Ealing, at the same time it had very little impact on what ever vote Lit secured in Southall, however I have no doubt that the low turnout in bits of Ealing was directly as a result of disaffected Ealing Tories responding to the photo and the subsequent Labour/LibDem attacks and sitting on their hands.

The Tory campaign was a massive improvement on what had gone before with the Tories in by-elections, in terms of selection of candidates (Lit for all his faults was a strong candidate IMHO), creation and distribution of literature and media profile... where the campaign fell apart was in the way in which it attempted some pretty basic elements of campaigning, canvassing data (even in Ealing) was poor, there was NO effective knocking up operation, no poster campaign by the Conservative campiagn, while much of the literature was good it's theme and form could have been more consistent (something always true of LibDem literature).

So in short, some areas of real improvement but at the same time the Tory campaign still fell far short of both Labour and LibDem in terms of field operations at least... one thing was very interesting, that while Labour ran a campaign that was often very negative (as did the LibDems) the Tories remained positive for the entire campaign... was that wise? I dont really know but remember in Chedale a remorselessly negative Tory campaign did rather well in the circumstances.               

[afleitch]

I think you're right Ben. To be the third party and not be 'squeezed' is not a bad result. The problem was Ealing was 'talked up', not by the party itself I may add, but by the blogs, particularly ConHome and this spilled onto PB.com too.

[Verily]

I think you're right Ben. To be the third party and not be 'squeezed' is not a bad result. The problem was Ealing was 'talked up', not by the party itself I may add, but by the blogs, particularly ConHome and this spilled onto PB.com too.

Of course, had the Tories not been talked up, they would have been squeezed. It's still a really bad result.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

one thing was very interesting, that while Labour ran a campaign that was often very negative (as did the LibDems) the Tories remained positive for the entire campaign... was that wise?     

If you play at the sort of politics that the Tories did in Southall, then you deserve everything that comes your way as a result.

[afleitch]

one thing was very interesting, that while Labour ran a campaign that was often very negative (as did the LibDems) the Tories remained positive for the entire campaign... was that wise?     

If you play at the sort of politics that the Tories did in Southall, then you deserve everything that comes your way as a result.

What 'sort of politics'? A positive campaign? Or if you're referring to the fact they parachuted in a candidate and blatantly courted bloc community votes well they learned from the Lib Dems and Labour on that one respectively.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What 'sort of politics'? A positive campaign? Or if you're referring to the fact they parachuted in a candidate and blatantly courted bloc community votes well they learned from the Lib Dems and Labour on that one respectively.

What they did was more than just going after an assumed bloc community vote (which is bad enough behaviour). There were some uglier actions (especially over the defections; it would be interesting to know exactly what certain people were promised...) and some equally uglier assumptions. Hopefully, now that everyone has seen that this sort of politics doesn't even work, it won't happen again.

On the general issue of going after assumed bloc votes, all three parties started doing it at around about the same time (mid 1960's or so if we're talking just about the votes of ex-Commonwealth immigrants. Late '50's if we're talking about exploiting the white backlash for all it was worth) though in different areas; it was just such an obvious thing to do.

[Democratic Hawk]

If anything, the Conservatives just ran a very unconvincing candidate in Tony Lit. Cameron would be wise not to run candidates as David Cameron's Conservatives in future.

The fact of the matter is the Conservatives should have done a lot better in this by-election when you consider they were only 5 or 6 per cent behind Labour in last years locals

Dave

[Ben.]

If anything, the Conservatives just ran a very unconvincing candidate in Tony Lit. Cameron would be wise not to run candidates as David Cameron's Conservatives in future.

The fact of the matter is the Conservatives should have done a lot better in this by-election when you consider they were only 5 or 6 per cent behind Labour in last years locals

Dave

Agree... as i say though Lit (bar "that photo") was perhaps the best candidate that could have been hoped for, the performance was as much down to the Tory campaign having zero grasp of field operations (voter ID, GOTV, poster campaign, coherent leafleting strategy etc...)... short comings that really came into sharp relief in the last week, when such things can be so important! 

Personally I'd have had the name on the ballot as Conservative Candidate: Stop the Tram.... at least that would have reflected what was (in theory) the campaign's theme and whats more a theme that was key to Tory local success last year.     

[afleitch]

Bear in mind that between 2001 and last weeks results, the Conservatives have only increased their vote in the Blaenau Gwent (nothing more than statistical) and Cheadle by-elections. The by-election result really wasn't that bad in context, however out of context and shortly after Brown's premiership bounce they didn't look so rosy.

[Harry Hayfield]

Smallest Conservative increases in by-elections since 1950 (Emboldened since 1997)

Stockport South 1955 (+0.1%)
Beaconsfield 1982 (+0.1%)
Chichester 1958 (+0.1%)
Sedgefield 2007 (+0.2%)
Wakefield    1954 (+0.2%)
Harwich 1954 (+0.2%)
Harrogate 1954 (+0.2%)
Abertillery    1965 (+0.2%)
Wycombe   1952 (+0.3%)
Tottenham 2000 (+0.3%)
Morpeth 1954 (+0.6%)
Abertillery    1950 (+0.6%)
Edinburgh North 1955 (+0.6%)
Cleveland    (+0.7%)
Ealing, Southall 2007 (+0.9%)
Hayes and Harlington 1953 (+0.9%)
Brighouse and Spenborough 1960 (+0.9%)
Paddington North 1953 (+1.0%)

[Democratic Hawk]

If anything, the Conservatives just ran a very unconvincing candidate in Tony Lit. Cameron would be wise not to run candidates as David Cameron's Conservatives in future.

The fact of the matter is the Conservatives should have done a lot better in this by-election when you consider they were only 5 or 6 per cent behind Labour in last years locals

Dave

Agree... as i say though Lit (bar "that photo") was perhaps the best candidate that could have been hoped for, the performance was as much down to the Tory campaign having zero grasp of field operations (voter ID, GOTV, poster campaign, coherent leafleting strategy etc...)... short comings that really came into sharp relief in the last week, when such things can be so important! 

I've been looking at the Conservative ''bench'' in Ealing Southall and while it is true they seem to have some established local councillors in the Ealing part of the existing constituency, their councillors in the new constituency (Elthorne and Northfield wards) seem to be freshmen elected in 2006, all of whom are white I understand

Therefore, given that the new constituency is going to be significantly more Asian, perhaps Tony Lit may have very well been their best shot. Of course, thanks to the 'Southall Five' they do now have Asian councillors in new constituency. It's only a matter of time before they either a) spit their dummies out with the Conservatives, as they did Labour or b) get their asses kicked out when they are next up for re-election. I'd guess their electorates, for the most part, voted Labour; though, I may be mistaken

I must admit, for a while, I thought Labour were in serious trouble in this by-election and a 5000 majority was music to my ears, all shenanigans considered

Even had Tony Lit won, my money would have been on him having a very short tenure indeed. I wonder if he'll ever be catapulted into some safe Tory seat somewhere. It would be a foolish move if he was

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Bear in mind that between 2001 and last weeks results, the Conservatives have only increased their vote in the Blaenau Gwent (nothing more than statistical) and Cheadle by-elections. The by-election result really wasn't that bad in context, however out of context and shortly after Brown's premiership bounce they didn't look so rosy.

Certainly not in that context

My point is that the principal opposition party should be making significant inroads at Labour's expense in parliamentary by-elections. The 2006 locals indicated that the Conservatives had a real shot at Ealing Southall. There were those on politicalbetting relishing the prospects of Labour finishing third!

That said, the malcontents in the Conservative Party, of course, are blowing the whole thing out of proportion. The real test, however, will come should there be a by-election arise in a Labour-Conservative marginal where the Labour majority is 5000 or less. And were Cameron to fall short there, then he will have problems

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's the report! In that case, how about we split the task eh? I do Wales (as that's the area I know best), you do the part of the UK that you know best and we'll divide the rest between us, okay?

Sounds like a plan, I'll do London and the South East. If we make the colour keys distinctive enough we can decide on a "unified" (one if that makes sense).

Can you send me a link to the constituency but, I can't seem to find it in the "full report".

bump

[afleitch]

That's the report! In that case, how about we split the task eh? I do Wales (as that's the area I know best), you do the part of the UK that you know best and we'll divide the rest between us, okay?

Sounds like a plan, I'll do London and the South East. If we make the colour keys distinctive enough we can decide on a "unified" (one if that makes sense).

Can you send me a link to the constituency but, I can't seem to find it in the "full report".

bump

Anyone have a link to the file? If we select a colour code and break it down region by region it should be easier to do. I now the JR report has maps of the urban regions which appear to be broken down by town/community. They may be worth replicating as they are a bit blurred.

[Serenity Now]

That's the report! In that case, how about we split the task eh? I do Wales (as that's the area I know best), you do the part of the UK that you know best and we'll divide the rest between us, okay?

Sounds like a plan, I'll do London and the South East. If we make the colour keys distinctive enough we can decide on a "unified" (one if that makes sense).

Can you send me a link to the constituency but, I can't seem to find it in the "full report".

bump

Anyone have a link to the file? If we select a colour code and break it down region by region it should be easier to do. I now the JR report has maps of the urban regions which appear to be broken down by town/community. They may be worth replicating as they are a bit blurred.

If i can't have these stats, I don't know what I'll do!

[Harry Hayfield]

The posting about Wales is here https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=60337.0 but I can't do much about sending them without an e-mail address.

[afleitch]

The posting about Wales is here https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=60337.0 but I can't do much about sending them without an e-mail address.

Nice maps but we really need the link if you know where to find it. Helps put things in context

EDIT: Found it

http://www.sasi.group.shef.ac.uk/research/transformation/

[Filuwaúrdjan]

http://www.sasi.group.shef.ac.uk/research/transformation/

Interesting stuff. Very interesting. A lot of potential for all sorts of maps and so on there...

[afleitch]

http://www.sasi.group.shef.ac.uk/research/transformation/

Interesting stuff. Very interesting. A lot of potential for all sorts of maps and so on there...

I threw this together - https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view;id=81

Just to test out the best way to display data. Thank goodness its in Excel, it's easer to work with.