Prediction stagnation?

[Padfoot]

Looking at the aggregate prediction history it appears we have hit a stagnation point.  What will it take to break it?  How long will it last?

[Aizen]

It's probably going to stay this way until we know who the two candidates will be and we are seeing polls in various states.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

We've had most all of the forum regulars make their initial predictions now, so  until some news comes up, we're likely to be stagnant for a while.


Here are the States that would need 10 or fewer of the existing 169 predictions to be changed to affect the map (assuming my idea of how the results are being tabulated is correct).  Only the changes marked below in bold would affect the line graph:

Colorado: 7 D>40% or higher to D>30% or lower to change the prediction from D>40% to D>30%

Delaware: 8 Weak D or lower  to Strong D would change the prediction from Weak D to Strong D.

Florida: 10 Tossup or lower to Weak R or higher would change the prediction from Tossup to Weak R.

Hawaii: 2 Strong D to Weak D or less would change the prediction from Strong D to Weak D.

Minnesota: 10 Weak D or higher to Tossup or less would change the prediction from Weak D to Tossup.

Missouri: 8 Tossup or lower to Weak R or higher would change the prediction from Tossup to Weak R.

Missouri: 10 R>50% or higher to R>40% or lower would change the prediction from R>50% to R>40%.

Nevada: 3 D>40% or higher to D>30% or lower to change the prediction from D>40% to D>30%

New Hampshire:3 Weak D or higher to Tossup or less would change the prediction from Weak D to Tossup.

Pennsylvania: 4 Tossup or lower to Weak D or higher would change the prediction from Tossup to Weak D.

Texas: 8 R>60% or higher to R>50% or lower to change the prediction from R>60% to R>50%

[Sensei]

I'm surprised they had Pennsylvania as a tossup to begin with.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I'm surprised they had Pennsylvania as a tossup to begin with.

Pennsylvania has been at a Weak D at times, most recently for one day on the 19th.  It's change from a Weak D to a Tossup was the last change to affect the line graph.

[Hash]

Looking at MA, 2 users listed it as a Rep win (one including a STRONG R win). Cookie to anyone who finds that map.

Looking at DC, once again 2 users have a R win there (once again one has it has strong R, and the % is R> 80%). I want to see those 2 maps!

[Alcon]

Looking at MA, 2 users listed it as a Rep win (one including a STRONG R win). Cookie to anyone who finds that map.

Looking at DC, once again 2 users have a R win there (once again one has it has strong R, and the % is R> 80%). I want to see those 2 maps!

Easy; sorted by most GOP.

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2008/pred.php?action=indpred&id=454

Aaand of course, our good friend:

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2008/pred.php?action=indpred&id=455

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Looking at MA, 2 users listed it as a Rep win (one including a STRONG R win). Cookie to anyone who finds that map.

Looking at DC, once again 2 users have a R win there (once again one has it has strong R, and the % is R> 80%). I want to see those 2 maps!

Easy; sorted by most GOP.

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2008/pred.php?action=indpred&id=454

Aaand of course, our good friend:

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2008/pred.php?action=indpred&id=455

Damn! Beat me to it.

Oh well, I have my own cookies

[Hash]

LOL!

[Padfoot]

Looking at MA, 2 users listed it as a Rep win (one including a STRONG R win). Cookie to anyone who finds that map.

Looking at DC, once again 2 users have a R win there (once again one has it has strong R, and the % is R> 80%). I want to see those 2 maps!

Easy; sorted by most GOP.

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2008/pred.php?action=indpred&id=454

Aaand of course, our good friend:

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2008/pred.php?action=indpred&id=455

I believe jamespol is trying to scare people from nominating Obama.  As for tancredo08, I think his name says it all.

[Likely Voter]

I wish the serious predictions could be sorted out from the 'wishful thinkings' or 'crazy scenarios'

[Josh/Devilman88]

I wish the serious predictions could be sorted out from the 'wishful thinkings' or 'crazy scenarios'

Me too, there are to many left-wing waks that think the Democrats are going to get all of the toss-up states. They need to wake up and smell the coffee, it isn't going to happen.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I wish the serious predictions could be sorted out from the 'wishful thinkings' or 'crazy scenarios'

Me too, there are to many left-wing waks that think the Democrats are going to get all of the toss-up states. They need to wake up and smell the coffee, it isn't going to happen.

You mean like Reagan lost the tossup state of Minnesota in 1984?

[they don't love you like i love you]

WV at Lean Republican is rather amusing.

[Aizen]

WV at Lean Republican is rather amusing.

Why is it amusing?

[they don't love you like i love you]

Because it's not a Republican state, and the GOP candidate will likely be much worse for the state than Bush in 2004 (especially Giuliani, who is about as awful as you can get for a candidate for WV. He's at the polar opposite with it on almost every issue)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I'd have to disagree with you in part.  West Virginia is unlikely to go for the Democratic candidate more strongly than the national PV goes in a strictly two-party race.  I do have to wonder about the 66 of 174 predictions that have it as a Strong GOP state though.  Absent a third party that fractures the anti-GOPers I can't see WV as any better than Lean GOP.

[they don't love you like i love you]

I'd have to disagree with you in part.  West Virginia is unlikely to go for the Democratic candidate more strongly than the national PV goes in a strictly two-party race.  I do have to wonder about the 66 of 174 predictions that have it as a Strong GOP state though.  Absent a third party that fractures the anti-GOPers I can't see WV as any better than Lean GOP.

Based on what? Against a cultural conservative I can understand this argument though it is still rather flawed, but what appeal does Giuliani have in West Virginia?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Why bring Rudy into this?  While I won't be shocked if he gets the nom, I doubt he will.  With his probable second place in the delegate totals, Rudy may well be the person that the nominee picks to "balance" the ticket, especially if a non-ex-Governor such as Thompson or McCain gets the nom, but basing GP predictions on Giuliani being the nominee is not a good idea right now.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It's been two weeks since I last did this:

Here are the States that would need 10 or fewer of the existing 197 predictions to be changed to affect the map (assuming my idea of how the results are being tabulated is correct).  Only the changes marked below in bold would affect the line graph:

Delaware: 6 (-2 from last time) Weak D or lower to Strong D would change the prediction from Weak D to Strong D.

Hawaii: 6 (+4 from last time) Strong D to Weak D or less would change the prediction from Strong D to Weak D.

Missouri: 7 (-1 from last time) Tossup or lower to Weak R or higher would change the prediction from Tossup to Weak R.

New Hampshire:8 (+5 from last time) Weak D or higher to Tossup or less would change the prediction from Weak D to Tossup.

Pennsylvania: 3 (-1 from last time) Tossup or lower to Weak D or higher would change the prediction from Tossup to Weak D.


Florida and Minnesota were within range if a change in their strength prediction, but no longer are.

Colorado, Missouri, Nevada, and Texas were within range of a change in their percentage prediction, but no longer are.

Net changes in the predictions over the past two weeks have overall seen a slight change towards the Democrats.  Some of the change is due to the increase in sample size, but not all.  Still from here on out, my threshold for looking at which States are susceptible to a change in prediction will be 5% of the sample size rounded to the nearest integer, with halves rounded to the nearest even integer.

[Padfoot]

It's been two weeks since I last did this:

Here are the States that would need 10 or fewer of the existing 197 predictions to be changed to affect the map (assuming my idea of how the results are being tabulated is correct).  Only the changes marked below in bold would affect the line graph:

Delaware: 6 (-2 from last time) Weak D or lower to Strong D would change the prediction from Weak D to Strong D.

Hawaii: 6 (+4 from last time) Strong D to Weak D or less would change the prediction from Strong D to Weak D.

Missouri: 7 (-1 from last time) Tossup or lower to Weak R or higher would change the prediction from Tossup to Weak R.

New Hampshire:8 (+5 from last time) Weak D or higher to Tossup or less would change the prediction from Weak D to Tossup.

Pennsylvania: 3 (-1 from last time) Tossup or lower to Weak D or higher would change the prediction from Tossup to Weak D.


Florida and Minnesota were within range if a change in their strength prediction, but no longer are.

Colorado, Missouri, Nevada, and Texas were within range of a change in their percentage prediction, but no longer are.

Net changes in the predictions over the past two weeks have overall seen a slight change towards the Democrats.  Some of the change is due to the increase in sample size, but not all.  Still from here on out, my threshold for looking at which States are susceptible to a change in prediction will be 5% of the sample size rounded to the nearest integer, with halves rounded to the nearest even integer.

thanks for keeping tabs on this Ernest.  Its very interesting. 

[Jaggerjack]

(PA lean Dem now) Well, there goes the stagnation...

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Strange, there is still less than a majority of predictions that have Pennsylvania as either lean or strong Dem, yet the State now shows as lean Dem.  By the method I'd use to make the determination, it's a Tossup for the median prediction, since a lean Dem would need that majority to be called as lean Dem.

198 Predictions

98 D (of which 25 are strong)
92 Tossup
7 R
1 I

[Smash255]

Strange, there is still less than a majority of predictions that have Pennsylvania as either lean or strong Dem, yet the State now shows as lean Dem.  By the method I'd use to make the determination, it's a Tossup for the median prediction, since a lean Dem would need that majority to be called as lean Dem.

198 Predictions

98 D (of which 25 are strong)
92 Tossup
7 R
1 I

just might take a little bit to update, the last two tossup predictions were within the last hour or so, the last one was within the last 20 minutes, which is what actually moves it back to tossup

[they don't love you like i love you]

Don't expect anything other than flukey movements until:

1-We have a clue who the nominees will be and
2-State polls start to come out regularly.