Data for progress - Biden +1

[MR DARK BRANDON]

https://zeteo.com/p/new-poll-biden-trump-election?r=2x1yde&triedRedirect=true

Biden - 47
Trump - 46

[kwabbit]

41 Trump
40 Biden
12 Kennedy

[kwabbit]

This is unchanged from their previous poll. In the third-party included ballot test, both Biden and Trump lost 1 and Kennedy gained 4.

I think we'll start to see more polls from them as they get past the McElwee scandal. They have a pretty good 538 rating.

[2016]

This is unchanged from their previous poll. In the third-party included ballot test, both Biden and Trump lost 1 and Kennedy gained 4.

I think we'll start to see more polls from them as they get past the McElwee scandal. They have a pretty good 538 rating.

All these Polls with either Trump +1 or Biden +1 tell us something. The EC Advantage that Republicans had during the 2016 & 2020 Election still exist. Biden has to win the PV by 3 or more yet again to win the Election.

[SnowLabrador]

The fact that this is considered a good poll for Biden should show the way it's heading.

[2016]

The fact that this is considered a good poll for Biden should show the way it's heading.

Trump has considerable more pathways compared to 2016 or 2020 to 270 because he is basically TIED in the National Polls.

Hillary in 2016 had a slight lead in the National Polls hence winning the Election became a stretch for Trump and that same was true in 2020.

This persistent close Race in the National Polling Average no matter if it's 538, RealClearPolling or DecisionDesk/The Hill should worry Democrats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden isn't losing with those Redfield polls plse

[Tekken_Guy]

This is unchanged from their previous poll. In the third-party included ballot test, both Biden and Trump lost 1 and Kennedy gained 4.

I think we'll start to see more polls from them as they get past the McElwee scandal. They have a pretty good 538 rating.

All these Polls with either Trump +1 or Biden +1 tell us something. The EC Advantage that Republicans had during the 2016 & 2020 Election still exist. Biden has to win the PV by 3 or more yet again to win the Election.

Not according to polls. Most polls show the rust belt states voting in line with the NPV rather than slightly to its right like in 2016 and 2020. The sun belt battlegrounds though still are more favorable to Trump than the national polls but Trump’s a vote short even with all of them.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

This is unchanged from their previous poll. In the third-party included ballot test, both Biden and Trump lost 1 and Kennedy gained 4.

I think we'll start to see more polls from them as they get past the McElwee scandal. They have a pretty good 538 rating.

All these Polls with either Trump +1 or Biden +1 tell us something. The EC Advantage that Republicans had during the 2016 & 2020 Election still exist. Biden has to win the PV by 3 or more yet again to win the Election.

Not according to polls. Most polls show the rust belt states voting in line with the NPV rather than slightly to its right like in 2016 and 2020. The sun belt battlegrounds though still are more favorable to Trump than the national polls but Trump’s a vote short even with all of them.

I’m increasingly thinking Biden’s best path comes through holding those rust belt states. I did not think this before

[SnowLabrador]

Outlier.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Outlier.

This literally lines up with most averages…

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He is just saying that, don't listen to SL

[Sir Mohamed]

Outlier.

This literally lines up with most averages…

Yup, though Biden would almost certainly lose the EC with a 1 pt. national lead. I believe he needs 2-3 pts. to have a decent shot at 270.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Outlier.

This literally lines up with most averages…

Yup, though Biden would almost certainly lose the EC with a 1 pt. national lead. I believe he needs 2-3 pts. to have a decent shot at 270.

I keep saying I honestly don’t think this with shifts in safe states. Remains to be seen but I honestly believe Biden can pull it out by winning by one. It would be hellishly close though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

SL just came off of a ban, he is doing the same thing as before and didn't learn anything

[kwabbit]

Outlier.

This literally lines up with most averages…

Yup, though Biden would almost certainly lose the EC with a 1 pt. national lead. I believe he needs 2-3 pts. to have a decent shot at 270.

I keep saying I honestly don’t think this with shifts in safe states. Remains to be seen but I honestly believe Biden can pull it out by winning by one. It would be hellishly close though.

If Biden wins with the EC with a 1pt PV victory, the Sunbelt would have to have trended right. GA, AZ, NV, and NC would be nearly guaranteed to have gone to Trump. Biden is bleeding in safe states because they are diverse, which also why they are Democratic, but the bleeding would also carry over to all diverse states, enough to flip the Sunbelt states. The only way you could think there would be bleeding in only the safe states is if you don't have a permission structure to acknowledge Biden losing a swing state, which might not be the case for you but definitely is for some.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Outlier.

This literally lines up with most averages…

Yup, though Biden would almost certainly lose the EC with a 1 pt. national lead. I believe he needs 2-3 pts. to have a decent shot at 270.

I keep saying I honestly don’t think this with shifts in safe states. Remains to be seen but I honestly believe Biden can pull it out by winning by one. It would be hellishly close though.

If Biden wins with the EC with a 1pt PV victory, the Sunbelt would have to have trended right. GA, AZ, NV, and NC would be nearly guaranteed to have gone to Trump. Biden is bleeding in safe states because they are diverse, which also why they are Democratic, but the bleeding would also carry over to all diverse states, enough to flip the Sunbelt states. The only way you could think there would be bleeding in only the safe states is if you don't have a permission structure to acknowledge Biden losing a swing state, which might not be the case for you but definitely is for some.

Oh yeah he’d likely lose the sunbelt in this scenario