Presidential debate megathread (debate 1: June 27, 9pm EDT, CNN)

[Frodo]

Kristen Weller needs to be the moderator.

She is not going to be the only one -Megyn Kelly and Chris Wallace should be in there as well.  

[Open Source Intelligence]

That message is clearly not resonating with voters that were not already dyed-in-the-wool voting Democrat, whether the candidate be Donald Trump or Mitt Romney.

Everybody was saying the same s**t back in 2022: nobody cares about democracy and abortion, Democrats should talk more bout the economy, etc.
Look how that turned out.

If Democrats want to lose in November, continue what they're doing. I'm hardly the first person to note that voters are unenthused and not much responding to the Biden talking points. http://www.theringer.com/2024/4/12/24127600/if-the-2024-presidential-election-is-so-important-why-does-it-feel-so-boring

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As soon as Biden makes it known that Trump doesn't want the Proud boys to stand down and frees them if Trump gets elected then it will cost Trump dearly, we can go back and forth all day on class warfare on Trump tax cuts

[Progressive Pessimist]

That message is clearly not resonating with voters that were not already dyed-in-the-wool voting Democrat, whether the candidate be Donald Trump or Mitt Romney.

Everybody was saying the same s**t back in 2022: nobody cares about democracy and abortion, Democrats should talk more bout the economy, etc.
Look how that turned out.

If Democrats want to lose in November, continue what they're doing. I'm hardly the first person to note that voters are unenthused and not much responding to the Biden talking points. http://www.theringer.com/2024/4/12/24127600/if-the-2024-presidential-election-is-so-important-why-does-it-feel-so-boring

Well, this is why a debate might alter things a bit.

F*** this take that the election is boring, so therefore it isn't important, bulls*** by the way.

[Inmate Trump]

How were polls affected after the first debate of 2020 with Trump’s disastrous performance?

Anyone know?

[Progressive Pessimist]

How were polls affected after the first debate of 2020 with Trump’s disastrous performance?

Anyone know?

I think they were good for Biden, but it barely mattered by election day since polling was amiss.

Debates matter only in the short term unless a significant moment becomes seized upon by the opposition (like Oz's women, doctor, and government officials comment).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

How were polls affected after the first debate of 2020 with Trump’s disastrous performance?

Anyone know?

The polls aren't gonna change that much between polls have been Biased towards Trump since the R primary and they are convinced that inflation is a worry on part of voters when it comes to voting.  The only way that polls change is when we vote to reelect Biden in 24 these polls are Trump bias even Fox has Trump at near 50

I think they were good for Biden, but it barely mattered by election day since polling was amiss.

Debates matter only in the short term unless a significant moment becomes seized upon by the opposition (like Oz's women, doctor, and government officials comment).

[GeorgiaModerate]

I have full confidence in Biden. Sure, he isn't his 2012 self, but Trump has always sucked at debates...

Trump during the 2016 primaries was a classic, the highlights from when he was taking on the entire field never gets old. There is also an argument to be made that he won both debates in 2020.

There's also an argument to be made that the Earth is flat, and that's about as sound an argument as the one you suggest.

[GeorgiaModerate]

That message is clearly not resonating with voters that were not already dyed-in-the-wool voting Democrat, whether the candidate be Donald Trump or Mitt Romney.

Everybody was saying the same s**t back in 2022: nobody cares about democracy and abortion, Democrats should talk more bout the economy, etc.
Look how that turned out.

Democrats lost that election!

However, they performed much better than expectations.

[7,052,770]

Unforced error for Biden to push for the mic rule. He won the first debate in 2020 due to Trump being unable to shut up.

He'll undoubtedly still shout anyway. He'll look even dumber if he does with the studio mics kinda picking it up but not at full volume.

[GeorgiaModerate]

How were polls affected after the first debate of 2020 with Trump’s disastrous performance?

Anyone know?

I think they were good for Biden, but it barely mattered by election day since polling was amiss.

Debates matter only in the short term unless a significant moment becomes seized upon by the opposition (like Oz's women, doctor, and government officials comment).

Biden gained about 3 points of margin in 538's average in the 2 weeks after the first debate, although by Election Day he'd given back about 2 of them.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said these debated aren't gonna matter until we vote we clearly see a Trump bias in most of them due to INFLATION, so we just have to vote to reelect Biden

[Old Man Willow]

Biden has the most gain and to lose from the debate. However it's a bit too early for it to make any lasting difference. At best he gets a small temporary spike like after the SOTU. I guess if he fumbles badly it could hurt him, but I don't expect that, in part because the "senile old fool" image is so baked in that it sets the bar incredibly low for a good performance to the general public. Like in 2000, all Bush had to do at the first debate was prove he had the most basic understanding of the issues at hand and he won, all Biden has to do is prove he can speak in complete sentences and he wins.

[emailking]

I have full confidence in Biden. Sure, he isn't his 2012 self, but Trump has always sucked at debates...

Trump during the 2016 primaries was a classic, the highlights from when he was taking on the entire field never gets old. There is also an argument to be made that he won both debates in 2020.

Not a good one.

[Progressive Pessimist]

That message is clearly not resonating with voters that were not already dyed-in-the-wool voting Democrat, whether the candidate be Donald Trump or Mitt Romney.

Everybody was saying the same s**t back in 2022: nobody cares about democracy and abortion, Democrats should talk more bout the economy, etc.
Look how that turned out.

Democrats lost that election!

However, they performed much better than expectations.

It depends how you define "win." Democrats lost the House, by only a single digit number of seats, but gained in Governor's races, the Senate, row offices, and state legislatures, particularly in important national battleground states. I would say Democrats won more than they lost in the long-term.

[wbrocks67]

Biden has the most gain and to lose from the debate. However it's a bit too early for it to make any lasting difference. At best he gets a small temporary spike like after the SOTU. I guess if he fumbles badly it could hurt him, but I don't expect that, in part because the "senile old fool" image is so baked in that it sets the bar incredibly low for a good performance to the general public. Like in 2000, all Bush had to do at the first debate was prove he had the most basic understanding of the issues at hand and he won, all Biden has to do is prove he can speak in complete sentences and he wins.

I would argue that both have a lot riding on it, but Trump really does. Trump has a very tiny and tenuous polling lead right now and it's literally hinging on polling saying infrequent voters are voting for him - any large scale television audience that shows that he's the same person from 2016 and 2020 shows all those Biden 2020 and infrequent voters that Trump is the wrong choice yet again.

Trump is also setting the bar for Biden extremely low once again saying he's the worst debater of all time on Truth Social

[Bush did 311]

It is a complete farce for democracy if RFK isn't included. I don't like the guy but with his polling and ballot standing he should be on.

[wbrocks67]

It is a complete farce for democracy if RFK isn't included. I don't like the guy but with his polling and ballot standing he should be on.

He's not averaging 15%, he would not be included even by the official Commissions standards

[GeorgiaModerate]

Changed the title and stickied the thread - we can use this as a megathread for all the debates.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Excellent news. Either Biden slays and calms everyone down, or he sucks and we replace him at the convention.

Bound delegates.

[emailking]

He can release his bound delegates. Not that the party is going to try and replace him short of some health disaster or something.

[ꙮ]

Biden has the most gain and to lose from the debate. However it's a bit too early for it to make any lasting difference. At best he gets a small temporary spike like after the SOTU. I guess if he fumbles badly it could hurt him, but I don't expect that, in part because the "senile old fool" image is so baked in that it sets the bar incredibly low for a good performance to the general public. Like in 2000, all Bush had to do at the first debate was prove he had the most basic understanding of the issues at hand and he won, all Biden has to do is prove he can speak in complete sentences and he wins.

I don't know why the Republicans keep doing this. Any time Biden debates without sh**tting himself it seems like a good performance relative to expectations. We also saw this in 2020. Per every poll taken both debates were either plusses for Biden or neutral.

Obviously no candidate is going to compliment their opponent's debate skills, but maybe don't rave about how Biden is going to literally drop dead on stage so much. The bar is on the floor.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The bar is on the floor.

Convenient when one is falling-down drunk.

[Neo-Malthusian Misanthrope]

I was going to suggest part of the reason they're going around the commission for presidential debates is so they don't need to risk RFK qualifying, but apparently the CNN debate will be "open to any presidential candidate who consistently polls above 15 percent in approved public surveys and is on enough state ballots to win a majority of electoral college votes" and Biden says he won't appear unless it's 1-on-1 so all this is moot. RFK probably wouldn't have qualified anyway, but I'm a little disappointed I won't be able to see the six-worm handicap in action. As a quirk of this, though, if both Biden and Trump skip the "official" debates and RFK qualifies, does he get the stage to himself or does the commission reserve the right to cancel?

[7,052,770]

Excellent news. Either Biden slays and calms everyone down, or he sucks and we replace him at the convention.

Bound delegates.

Unbound if he were to drop out.