Presidential debate megathread (debate 1: June 27, 9pm EDT, CNN)

[KYRockefeller]

I'm glad that this debate isn't happening in front of a live audience.  Over the last 3-4 election cycles, debates have become a circus with the live crowd acting like they are watching a sporting event.  Its ridiculous.

Trump's advisors better tell him to avoid acting like he did in debate #1 in 2020.  If he acts more like he did in debate #2, he's got a chance.  I'm hardly Trump's biggest fan and wish the GOP had a different nominee but I also don't think he's a bad debater.  He has the ability to create nice "moments" in these debates, whether comedic or otherwise, that people remember well after the fact.  Look at his disarming of Hillary Clinton's "rigged" argument in one of the debates of 2016 where he cracked Chris Wallace up by saying he should've won an Emmy for the Apprentice.

[VALibertarian]

I think it's pretty clear Biden has an easier time looking good in this debate; similarly to SOTU as long as he projects a strong competent vibe it'll ease voter fears and boost his standing. Of course any gaffes might be damaging but that's the risk you have to take, not debating is a losing look for both.

Trump-wise I think an underrated factor is this potentially (probably?) will be his chance to make his case post NY trial conviction and win back some of the public opinion, if he can play it off. Like others in this thread have stated if Trump can stick to a message of "Were you better off in 2016-2019?" and try to lean more on the humor he can come off looking decent.

The good news for both candidates is that June is still an eternity away from the election in average American minds, and barring some immensely damning soundbite probably won't move the needle much for anyone besides donors and hyper political junkies.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Biden has the most gain and to lose from the debate. However it's a bit too early for it to make any lasting difference. At best he gets a small temporary spike like after the SOTU. I guess if he fumbles badly it could hurt him, but I don't expect that, in part because the "senile old fool" image is so baked in that it sets the bar incredibly low for a good performance to the general public. Like in 2000, all Bush had to do at the first debate was prove he had the most basic understanding of the issues at hand and he won, all Biden has to do is prove he can speak in complete sentences and he wins.

I don't know why the Republicans keep doing this. Any time Biden debates without sh**tting himself it seems like a good performance relative to expectations. We also saw this in 2020. Per every poll taken both debates were either plusses for Biden or neutral.

Obviously no candidate is going to compliment their opponent's debate skills, but maybe don't rave about how Biden is going to literally drop dead on stage so much. The bar is on the floor.

I mean those post debate polls also had Hillary winning every debate and Kamala beating Pence. The only time the R won was Pence vs Kaine and even that was somewhat close despite it being a pounding for Kaine.

[The Mikado]

Obviously no candidate is going to compliment their opponent's debate skills, but maybe don't rave about how Biden is going to literally drop dead on stage so much. The bar is on the floor.

George W. Bush's campaign in 2004 claimed that John Kerry was "The best debater since Cicero."

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Biden has the most gain and to lose from the debate. However it's a bit too early for it to make any lasting difference. At best he gets a small temporary spike like after the SOTU. I guess if he fumbles badly it could hurt him, but I don't expect that, in part because the "senile old fool" image is so baked in that it sets the bar incredibly low for a good performance to the general public. Like in 2000, all Bush had to do at the first debate was prove he had the most basic understanding of the issues at hand and he won, all Biden has to do is prove he can speak in complete sentences and he wins.

I don't know why the Republicans keep doing this. Any time Biden debates without sh**tting himself it seems like a good performance relative to expectations. We also saw this in 2020. Per every poll taken both debates were either plusses for Biden or neutral.

Obviously no candidate is going to compliment their opponent's debate skills, but maybe don't rave about how Biden is going to literally drop dead on stage so much. The bar is on the floor.

While I still think this is a mistake by Biden, if he can pull out a consistently modestly average performance, his campaign (and Democratic PACs) may very well end up with clips they can run from June to November of Biden speaking like a mentally competent adult while Trump babbles, fumbles and slurs incoherently on stage next to him. They can intercut it with short clips from Republicans and prominent "conservatives" saying how important it is that the President isn't senile.

[wnwnwn]

Biden has the most gain and to lose from the debate. However it's a bit too early for it to make any lasting difference. At best he gets a small temporary spike like after the SOTU. I guess if he fumbles badly it could hurt him, but I don't expect that, in part because the "senile old fool" image is so baked in that it sets the bar incredibly low for a good performance to the general public. Like in 2000, all Bush had to do at the first debate was prove he had the most basic understanding of the issues at hand and he won, all Biden has to do is prove he can speak in complete sentences and he wins.

I don't know why the Republicans keep doing this. Any time Biden debates without sh**tting himself it seems like a good performance relative to expectations. We also saw this in 2020. Per every poll taken both debates were either plusses for Biden or neutral.

Obviously no candidate is going to compliment their opponent's debate skills, but maybe don't rave about how Biden is going to literally drop dead on stage so much. The bar is on the floor.

While I still think this is a mistake by Biden, if he can pull out a consistently modestly average performance, his campaign (and Democratic PACs) may very well end up with clips they can run from June to November of Biden speaking like a mentally competent adult while Trump babbles, fumbles and slurs incoherently on stage next to him. They can intercut it with short clips from Republicans and prominent "conservatives" saying how important it is that the President isn't senile.

BidenHarrisHQ is already showing clips of Trump gaffes

[Steve from Lambeth]

That message is clearly not resonating with voters that were not already dyed-in-the-wool voting Democrat, whether the candidate be Donald Trump or Mitt Romney.

Everybody was saying the same s**t back in 2022: nobody cares about democracy and abortion, Democrats should talk more bout the economy, etc.
Look how that turned out.

If Democrats want to lose in November, continue what they're doing. I'm hardly the first person to note that voters are unenthused and not much responding to the Biden talking points. http://www.theringer.com/2024/4/12/24127600/if-the-2024-presidential-election-is-so-important-why-does-it-feel-so-boring

Derek Thompson: So in January, the author Kat Rosenfield tweeted that “Voting in the upcoming 2024 election would be like dining at a restaurant whose menu offered two meals. One was a large bowl of lukewarm, watery gruel, and the other was a Flamin’ Hot Cheeto someone dropped under the couch in 2014 that had been slightly nibbled on by mice.”

ooooof

[Progressive Pessimist]

That message is clearly not resonating with voters that were not already dyed-in-the-wool voting Democrat, whether the candidate be Donald Trump or Mitt Romney.

Everybody was saying the same s**t back in 2022: nobody cares about democracy and abortion, Democrats should talk more bout the economy, etc.
Look how that turned out.

If Democrats want to lose in November, continue what they're doing. I'm hardly the first person to note that voters are unenthused and not much responding to the Biden talking points. http://www.theringer.com/2024/4/12/24127600/if-the-2024-presidential-election-is-so-important-why-does-it-feel-so-boring

Derek Thompson: So in January, the author Kat Rosenfield tweeted that “Voting in the upcoming 2024 election would be like dining at a restaurant whose menu offered two meals. One was a large bowl of lukewarm, watery gruel, and the other was a Flamin’ Hot Cheeto someone dropped under the couch in 2014 that had been slightly nibbled on by mice.”

ooooof

F*** that analogy.

It's more like white rice or raw chicken sauteed in arsenic and expired milk.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Yeah, I'm tired of all this nihilism and cynicism by people who want to pat themselves on the back for being so smart and cool.
Biden has been a good president and only morons can seriously compare him with a guy whose incompetence cost the lives of a million people and who tried to become a dictator by sending a mob to murder his own VP.

[Lief 🗽]

Yeah, I'm tired of all this nihilism and cynicism by people who want to pat themselves on the back for being so smart and cool.
Biden has been a good president and only morons can seriously compare him with a guy whose incompetence cost the lives of a million people and who tried to become a dictator by sending a mob to murder his own VP.

He’s been a good president for normal people but the bloodsucking quislings in the “fourth estate” will never forgive him for taking away their beloved Trump. They blame Biden for the total and complete collapse in their industry since the Trump bubble burst. That has colored their coverage of Biden’s presidency and explains why they refuse to give him credit for all that he’s achieved (in stark contrast to their four years of fawning coverage of Trump).

[Eraserhead]

Excellent news. Either Biden slays and calms everyone down, or he sucks and we replace him at the convention.

Bound delegates.

Unbound if he were to drop out.

I don't foresee him stepping aside because of one bad (or even disastrous) debate performance even if he arguably should.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Excellent news. Either Biden slays and calms everyone down, or he sucks and we replace him at the convention.

Bound delegates.

Unbound if he were to drop out.

Do we seriously think that is happening at this point? If he was dropping out the time to do that would've been a year ago.

Besides, this is a political party that absolutely hates open primaries and giving their voters choices that can risk opening wounds in the coalition. The last thing the DNC will want to do is hold a Convention open floor vote. In the event Biden said "I can't do this", they'd likely tell him to wait until after the Convention and then they pick the replacement.

If you want to go fantasyland and someone replaced at the Convention, the person to do that to is Harris where all of the delegates are already unbound.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1791058787463258555

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NidiaCavazosTV/status/1791112855057568055

[wbrocks67]

I think it's pretty clear Biden has an easier time looking good in this debate; similarly to SOTU as long as he projects a strong competent vibe it'll ease voter fears and boost his standing. Of course any gaffes might be damaging but that's the risk you have to take, not debating is a losing look for both.

Trump-wise I think an underrated factor is this potentially (probably?) will be his chance to make his case post NY trial conviction and win back some of the public opinion, if he can play it off. Like others in this thread have stated if Trump can stick to a message of "Were you better off in 2016-2019?" and try to lean more on the humor he can come off looking decent.

The good news for both candidates is that June is still an eternity away from the election in average American minds, and barring some immensely damning soundbite probably won't move the needle much for anyone besides donors and hyper political junkies.

That wouldn't work without a live audience to feed off of though.

[Del Tachi]

I think what this shows is exactly how risk-averse Biden's campaign is.  Having fewer, earlier debates is fundamentally about limiting Biden's exposure to unscripted moments.  A candidate who is down in the polls should want to debate more, not less.

Then Trump must feel he is losing because that's what he wants. Not wanting to debate more comes from a place of strength, so Biden's campaign must feel okay about their position.

The calculus is different for Biden vs Trump.  Trump's operating assumption is that Biden is unfit for the office, so debating should expose that to voters.  Biden wanting fewer/earlier debates is a tacit admission that he wants them to matter as little as possible by election day.

[wbrocks67]

I think what this shows is exactly how risk-averse Biden's campaign is.  Having fewer, earlier debates is fundamentally about limiting Biden's exposure to unscripted moments.  A candidate who is down in the polls should want to debate more, not less.

Then Trump must feel he is losing because that's what he wants. Not wanting to debate more comes from a place of strength, so Biden's campaign must feel okay about their position.

The calculus is different for Biden vs Trump.  Trump's operating assumption is that Biden is unfit for the office, so debating should expose that to voters.  Biden wanting fewer/earlier debates is a tacit admission that he wants them to matter as little as possible by election day.

You're assuming what Trump thinks though in that scenario. Trump is not that smart, and he's not looking to do a debate *every month* just for that reason alone.

[Del Tachi]

I think what this shows is exactly how risk-averse Biden's campaign is.  Having fewer, earlier debates is fundamentally about limiting Biden's exposure to unscripted moments.  A candidate who is down in the polls should want to debate more, not less.

Then Trump must feel he is losing because that's what he wants. Not wanting to debate more comes from a place of strength, so Biden's campaign must feel okay about their position.

The calculus is different for Biden vs Trump.  Trump's operating assumption is that Biden is unfit for the office, so debating should expose that to voters.  Biden wanting fewer/earlier debates is a tacit admission that he wants them to matter as little as possible by election day.

You're assuming what Trump thinks though in that scenario. Trump is not that smart, and he's not looking to do a debate *every month* just for that reason alone.

This only requires Trump thinks Biden is senile.  Which he has said several times.  You should give him more credit, LOL

Credit where credit is due, though.  Team Biden made an A+ tactical move here.  They upended the norms around debates by taking advantage of Trump's unconditional offer to debate early and often, but then only locked themselves into two.  In response to Trump's request for a later Fox News debate, Biden's campaign spokesperson said Trump was "sowing chaos."  Never mind that it is Biden who opened this can of worms.

[emailking]

I don't think the audience matters. In GE debates the audience was always asked to hold applause or laughter for the entirety of the debate and that almost always held. Maybe the audience presence affected the candidates somehow but not in a way that was transparent to the audience.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I think it's pretty clear Biden has an easier time looking good in this debate; similarly to SOTU as long as he projects a strong competent vibe it'll ease voter fears and boost his standing. Of course any gaffes might be damaging but that's the risk you have to take, not debating is a losing look for both.

Trump-wise I think an underrated factor is this potentially (probably?) will be his chance to make his case post NY trial conviction and win back some of the public opinion, if he can play it off. Like others in this thread have stated if Trump can stick to a message of "Were you better off in 2016-2019?" and try to lean more on the humor he can come off looking decent.

The good news for both candidates is that June is still an eternity away from the election in average American minds, and barring some immensely damning soundbite probably won't move the needle much for anyone besides donors and hyper political junkies.

That wouldn't work without a live audience to feed off of though.

Trump feeds off a crowd far more and is much more in his element in front of one. That's why his rallies are such an effective campaign tool. He'll be much more handicapped without an audience.

[President Johnson]

Will the other debates in October still happen then?

Interestingly this will also be the first debate in which the moderator will refer to both candidates as "Mr. President."

[Eraserhead]

https://twitter.com/NidiaCavazosTV/status/1791112855057568055

Too bad there's nobody to debate just yet. lol.

[emailking]

Will the other debates in October still happen then?

Doubtful. Biden sent CPD a letter that their debates are too close to the election in an era of such prolific early and mail in voting and also that they haven't been able to control candidates in the past and refuse to cut the mics.

[All Along The Watchtower]

The calculus is different for Biden vs Trump.  Trump's operating assumption is that Biden is unfit for the office, so debating should expose that to voters. 

How is that different from Biden’s operating assumption?

[Sir Mohamed]

Will the other debates in October still happen then?

Doubtful. Biden sent CPD a letter that their debates are too close to the election in an era of such prolific early and mail in voting and also that they haven't been able to control candidates in the past and refuse to cut the mics.

Yup, but I'm somewhat concerned this becomes the new norm. The presidential election cycle is already way too long. Early voting for sure is an argument, but im my opinion debates shouldn't occur before the first half of September.

The extended length of campaigns contributes to voter fatigue and disengagement. With campaigns stretching over a year or more, voters can become overwhelmed by the constant barrage of political messaging and may lose interest in the election process altogether. Additionally, the prolonged campaign season allows for an excessive amount of fundraising and spending on advertising. candidates and incumbents are forced to spend significant amounts of time and money on campaigning, which can - in latter's case - detract from their ability to govern effectively. Shortening the campaign period would also help to reduce the influence of money in politics.