He should win Frederick and AA. It may not be by much and he would probably be the last Republican to win those counties for quite some time, but I think he has enough crossover appeal to make it happen.
Kent and Talbot go without saying.
I do wonder about the margin in Baltimore County.
if this was not a year that I would be expecting Democrats to over perform their polling, which they will, I would think Hogan would win Baltimore County and the state.
One of my latinos actually voted for Hogan in 2018 apparently.
My predict on a final margin in Maryland is Hogan winning like 46 or 47% of the vote. Still a huge overperformance.
What are your Latinos thinking for the 2024 Presidential race? Have they mirrored the swing from 2016?
Non-mexican hispanics will likely trend Republican. Mexicans not so much, if at all, but
very state specific. It is why I could see texas being insanely close or a completely blow out against Biden.
Though medium term and even long term, it is difficult for me to see the Latino vote as a whole going more then 40% Republican. The GOP will have to scrape for every vote above like 38% nationally. Contrary to popular belief, Latinos as a whole support Democrat/liberal policies.
It will not be like a huge GOP swing among MUSLIMS.. and the israel/gaza war is just an overrated smokescreen.
Covid restriction backlash, incumbency of Drumpf, and political correctness/wokeness pushed many latinos to the GOP column in 2020 after a slight swing to the GOP In 2016. It was a long time coming, but for the medium term the GOP will hit a hard wall this November.
Treating all minorities are "BIPOCS" (wtf lol) was NEVER going to work. Latinos and Asians are hyper tribalized, though I expect a swing to Democrats for Asians based on the anti-intellectualism of the GOP. Latinos certainly do believe they are a collective group, at all.
Political correctness is a mild reason why the GOP has had more success with the Latinos... latino culture is more honest and blunt.
But the bottom line is.. many of the those Latinos who trended Republican since 2016 were conservatives to begin and have drifted to the GOP. I do not see the Latino vote becoming a GOP anchor. Economic and immigration issues are toxic for the GOP in the latino communtiy.
Keep in mind that compared to 2004 Democrats did great Latinos recently!
Obama is really a once in a lifetime scenario that was able to kind of unify Latinos and even then, Republicans did well with latinos in the 2014 midterms.
