Will 2028 be the first not so close election in a while?

[Sir Mohamed]

The 2028 US presidential election could potentially be the first in a while that doesn't end in a close race like 2016, 2020 and probably 2024 (maybe even 2012). This could be due to either Biden being re-elected for a second term or Donald Trump winning another term in office. In both cases, the pendulum might back to the other side (I actually expect the winner of this year to lose 2028 regardless of the outcome).

Winning a 3rd consective term rarely happens, and if Biden is re-elected, he most likely won't be that popular over most of that terms. But even if he's more like Clinton, the retiring incumbent's popularity is not always tranferable to their party's candidate. Not to mention in this scenario, VP Harris the frontrunner for the nomination and after Trump, the GOP might nominate a stronger candidate who would easily beat Harris.

On the other hand, if Trump is elected for a second time, his term will almost certainly be a distastrous. Another poor performance in the 2026 midterms would also weaken the GOP institutionally and limit the bench available for 2028. Since his presidency will certainly again cause severe backlash, Dems should be in a strong position for 2028 and the GOP won't have incumbency advantage as Trump is term-limited and some of his supporters may not bother to show up at the polls.

Regardless of the outcome, the 2028 election has the potential to be a a realignment in US political history, with the possibility of a more decisive result than any other election since 2008.

The only exception might be either Harris or Trump's VP having to step in and run as incumbent prez in 2028. The outcome then would depend on their terms and - I guess most important - timing. The closer to the election he/she becomes prez, the better. If Harris or Trump's VP already take over in 2025 or 2026, any sympathy bump might have faded by the time the presidential election rolls around.

What does Atlas think?

[GAinDC]

I agree with this.

I don't really subscribe to this concept but I could be convinced that 2024 will be a poisoned chalice election in the short term for each party.

Unfortunately, I see Biden's second term going like Bush's, setting Republicans up for a really good night in 2028, and hopefully with Trump out of the picture.

But I think the greater risk is for Republicans if Trump wins. I think voters will eventually hit a breaking point with him that will severely harm the GOP for years to come. I think that includes Trump attempting some sort of power grab late in his term, but failing miserably because he no longer has enough popular or institutional support to pull it off.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think more likely we could be in an anti incumbency era where incumbent presidents fail to win reelection. Keep in mind this was also the case from 1836-1896 when no incumbent outside Lincoln and Grant got reelected so its not like its unprecedent.

[Medal506]

I think more likely we could be in an anti incumbency era where incumbent presidents fail to win reelection. Keep in mind this was also the case from 1836-1896 when no incumbent outside Lincoln and Grant got reelected so its not like its unprecedent.

If Trump wins he obviously won’t be able to run again so that would mean we would go at least 12 years without a two term president since we would not have had a president with two consecutive terms.

[Compuzled_One]

I agree, especially since the Chinese economy can collapse at any time.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think more likely we could be in an anti incumbency era where incumbent presidents fail to win reelection. Keep in mind this was also the case from 1836-1896 when no incumbent outside Lincoln and Grant got reelected so its not like its unprecedent.

If Trump wins he obviously won’t be able to run again so that would mean we would go at least 12 years without a two term president since we would not have had a president with two consecutive terms.

Oh sure but his VP almost certainly would be the nominee (given how weak the gop bench is) and they probably would lose .

Keep in mind in that time period no incumbent VP was elected president either

[GAinDC]

I think more likely we could be in an anti incumbency era where incumbent presidents fail to win reelection. Keep in mind this was also the case from 1836-1896 when no incumbent outside Lincoln and Grant got reelected so its not like its unprecedent.

You’ve said this before, so i did some research.

And you’re right, but those incumbents also didn’t seem to run for a second term. Was it more common back then for incumbent presidents to lose renomination?

if so, you can’t really compare that era to now, where both Trump and Biden easily re-won their parties’ nominations, despite having low approval ratings.

[Mr. Smith]

I think more likely we could be in an anti incumbency era where incumbent presidents fail to win reelection. Keep in mind this was also the case from 1836-1896 when no incumbent outside Lincoln and Grant got reelected so its not like its unprecedent.

Hayes and Arthur purposefully sat out, but they might well have been re-elected if they tried. And Cleveland still won the popular vote on re-election, and came back anyway.

[SnowLabrador]

No, 2024's on track to be. And if Trump wins (as I think he will), the 2028 election will at a very minimum be significantly more rigged than most US elections are.

[King Man]

After Biden wins this election the GOP will win in a 08 style landslide.

[Frodo]

Whichever party loses this year's election will win the 2028 election in as near a landslide as you can get these days -that is assuming we will still have free and fair elections if Trump wins this year.  And I would think long and hard before placing a bet that we will. 

[pikachu]

If the economy stays where it’s been for the past few years (2-3% inflation and decent growth), idk why polarization would break. Unless you have a 2008-style collapse (and considering 2020 even then…), i’d bet on a close election.

[TML]

I think it would probably require someone who can make Allan Lichtman turn the charisma key in his/her favor. Lichtman does not give Trump the charisma key because he notes that Trump's intense appeal applies only to a narrow slice of the electorate (the people attracted by his intense appeal are almost exclusively right-wingers).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, of Biden is reelected and Gavin Newsom and Alsobrooks are nominated instead of Harris we will see a blowout of 2008 proportion, it's still gonna be a 303 map because the 28 S is the same as it was in 22 Fetterson, CCM, Kelly and Johnson and Vance are all up for reelection

Whomever Landsman and Rodriguez gonna have an easier time to beating Vance and Johnson than I'm 22

[Tekken_Guy]

Whichever party loses this year's election will win the 2028 election in as near a landslide as you can get these days -that is assuming we will still have free and fair elections if Trump wins this year.  And I would think long and hard before placing a bet that we will. 

I would definitely bet that we will. Trump may try his hardest to rig 2028 but given how the executive branch doesn’t really have any power over the administration and certification of elections I’ll be very surprised if he pulled it off.

[Sir Mohamed]

Whichever party loses this year's election will win the 2028 election in as near a landslide as you can get these days -that is assuming we will still have free and fair elections if Trump wins this year.  And I would think long and hard before placing a bet that we will. 

I would definitely bet that we will. Trump may try his hardest to rig 2028 but given how the executive branch doesn’t really have any power over the administration and certification of elections I’ll be very surprised if he pulled it off.

The question is what Trumpian state govts are doing. But by 2028 their power might be severly reduced as a result of disastrous 2026 midterms.

[EastwoodS]

I expect 2028 to be pretty close.

[2016]

No, 2024's on track to be. And if Trump wins (as I think he will), the 2028 election will at a very minimum be significantly more rigged than most US elections are.

I still think Biden wins Re-Election, the Trump Talk will die down after that AND the Liberal Media will spent the next four years trying to prop up Harris because she is such a disliked person.

And then DeSantis or Youngkin are going to mop the floor with her in 2028.

[You don't see any blue avatars now]

No, 2024's on track to be. And if Trump wins (as I think he will), the 2028 election will at a very minimum be significantly more rigged than most US elections are.

I still think Biden wins Re-Election, the Trump Talk will die down after that AND the Liberal Media will spent the next four years trying to prop up Harris because she is such a disliked person.

And then DeSantis or Youngkin are going to mop the floor with her in 2028.

I'm an optimist, but I'm also a realist. Biden wins by a slimmer margin than 2020, Trump tries to insurrect again, runs for a fourth term from prison, wins the nomination, but dies. I agree that Kamala Harris will be propped up by the Democratic establishment somewhat, but she won't need that much due to the cult following she's earned in the wake of "coconut tree" becoming a meme.

At the RNC, he is replaced by Matt Walsh following his speech as the third place finisher in the primaries, saying "You cannot crucify mankind upon a cross of transgenderism." Which, for the record, we can and we will. Anyway, the malaise of the past four years continues on, and Biden has Bush II level approvals by November 2028; however, Walsh is repugnant enough that he still nearly fumbles the bag (winning by a 2000-level margin in the tipping point, with a 2008-level PV margin for Harris).

After Walsh spends four years hunting his white (and pink and blue) whale instead of trying to move the country forward and out of the Crying Twenties, a truly not-so-close election will finally occur in 2032, when Senator Becca Balint (elected to succeed Bernie Sanders following his resignation in 2026 to serve as Biden's lame-duck Labor Secretary) mops the floor with the ever-unpopular President Walsh.

[MABA 2020]

If Biden wins sure but if Trump wins... I dunno where things will be then.

[ShadowRocket]

Depends.  An Obama 2008-esque margin of victory is what I'd expect for the Democratic nominee following a second Trump presidency.  And that's probably their best case scenario.

On the flip side if Biden is reelected, I image a GOP victory would look similar to Trump's 2016 while performing better in the popular vote.

[EastwoodS]

Depends.  An Obama 2008-esque margin of victory is what I'd expect for the Democratic nominee following a second Trump presidency.  And that's probably their best case scenario.

On the flip side if Biden is reelected, I image a GOP victory would look similar to Trump's 2016 while performing better in the popular vote.

Gone are the days of the Democratic coalition being much bigger than the GOP, if at all.

[Fancyarcher]

Depends.  An Obama 2008-esque margin of victory is what I'd expect for the Democratic nominee following a second Trump presidency.  And that's probably their best case scenario.

On the flip side if Biden is reelected, I image a GOP victory would look similar to Trump's 2016 while performing better in the popular vote.

Gone are the days of the Democratic coalition being much bigger than the GOP, if at all.

It was never really that much bigger. There just used to be more persuadable swing voters.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Impossible to say, some ppl thought 2020 was also going to be a landslide when Trump got elected and it ended up being quite close.

I also think we won't see a return to neocon GOP era. The GOP changed... since Tea Party and definitely after Trump, it's no longer the party of Bush, Romney & Reagan. It's the party of Trump, even if he leaves we get at someone who basically would run on his ideology but without his toxic persona.

I therefore think unless the incumbent really messes up or the environment isn't there - which is impossible to predict - that it would remain close elections, especially since the era of polarization isn't going to leave immediately, and we see no hints of that happening meaning the coalitions will remain relatively stable, but with continuation of trends.

[President Johnson]

I also think we won't see a return to neocon GOP era. The GOP changed... since Tea Party and definitely after Trump, it's no longer the party of Bush, Romney & Reagan. It's the party of Trump, even if he leaves we get at someone who basically would run on his ideology but without his toxic persona.

I completely agree with this take. In my view, it has become somewhat evident that the two major political parties in US are increasingly definited by their stances on globalism in a broader sense.

The Democratic Party's embrace of globalization can be seen in its support for free trade agreements, immigration reform, and international cooperation on issues such as climate change and human rights. Democrats argue that globalization has the potential to create economic opportunities, promote cultural exchange and address global challenges that require collective action. On the other hand, the Republican Party has been moving towards a more protectionist and nationalist approach, advocating for trade barriers, restrictions on immigration and denial of the climate crisis. Republicans argue that globalization has led to job losses, and threats to national sovereignty and that a more isolationist approach is needed to protect American interests.

This shift in the parties' positions on globalization has somewhat blurred the traditional lines of the right-left political spectrum. While these traditional ideological boundaries remain intact, the broader debate over globalization has increasingly shaped the debate and changed voter coalitions.