AZ and FL - CBS News/Yougov - Trump +5/+9

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/CBSNewsPoll/status/1792186735457095993?t=RHbZigw36bJ90-d9niZ...

[Rubensim]

Florida expected so no surpise there
And trump doing this good in arizona so look like arizona looking pretty good for the Reps.

[2016]

Florida is not a Battleground State anymore. Why do New Organizations still keep polling the State is beyond creepy.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

FL is gone. Based on the rust belt polls from a few weeks ago this seems to confirm that the easiest path does in fact lie through those 3 states (MI/WI/PA)

[GAinDC]

We’re in a weird place right now where the national polls are looking better for Biden but the swing state polls are still looking pretty bad for him. However this looks to be the same polling outfit that showed close races in the rust belt trio.

I’m not skilled enough to offer a thorough explanation for this, but I still feel better about Biden’s chances compared to a few months ago.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Border issue having obvious resonance in the Sun Belt.

https://twitter.com/CBSNewsPoll/status/1792187447591194953?t=HCKxvnjV1PoUNUUhDXH...

[2016]

FL is gone. Based on the rust belt polls from a few weeks ago this seems to confirm that the easiest path does in fact lie through those 3 states (MI/WI/PA)

That gets Biden only to 269. He would need NE-2 to win.

Can't believe I am saying this but for the first time in the History of the United States of America
269-269 seems legitimately in play this November.

[Vern]

FL is gone. Based on the rust belt polls from a few weeks ago this seems to confirm that the easiest path does in fact lie through those 3 states (MI/WI/PA)

That gets Biden only to 269. He would need NE-2 to win.

Can't believe I am saying this but for the first time in the History of the United States of America
269-269 seems legitimately in play this November.

I have been thinking the same. Ever since we have seen a poll showing Trump ahead in NE-2.

[Old Man Willow]

We’re in a weird place right now where the national polls are looking better for Biden but the swing state polls are still looking pretty bad for him. However this looks to be the same polling outfit that showed close races in the rust belt trio.

I’m not skilled enough to offer a thorough explanation for this, but I still feel better about Biden’s chances compared to a few months ago.

The recent national polls have ranged from a tie to Biden +3. Considering Biden came within an inch of losing while winning the PV by 4 in 2020, I don't really see how the national and state polls are contradictory.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

We’re in a weird place right now where the national polls are looking better for Biden but the swing state polls are still looking pretty bad for him. However this looks to be the same polling outfit that showed close races in the rust belt trio.

I’m not skilled enough to offer a thorough explanation for this, but I still feel better about Biden’s chances compared to a few months ago.

I can say that there is a reason Biden has been targeting those states over other swing states recently. I still do believe that AZ will fall into Biden’s column in the end but I think he agrees that the easiest path comes through retaining the blue wall (and if he does that I think he’s won NE-2)

[Yelnoc]

FL is gone. Based on the rust belt polls from a few weeks ago this seems to confirm that the easiest path does in fact lie through those 3 states (MI/WI/PA)

That gets Biden only to 269. He would need NE-2 to win.

Can't believe I am saying this but for the first time in the History of the United States of America
269-269 seems legitimately in play this November.

If Biden loses NE-2, I can't see him winning the rust belt trio.

[2016]

FL is gone. Based on the rust belt polls from a few weeks ago this seems to confirm that the easiest path does in fact lie through those 3 states (MI/WI/PA)

That gets Biden only to 269. He would need NE-2 to win.

Can't believe I am saying this but for the first time in the History of the United States of America
269-269 seems legitimately in play this November.

If Biden loses NE-2, I can't see him winning the rust belt trio.

270-268 would be massivly contested by Republicans. They would demand Recounts in NE-2, MI, PA, WI if that actually happens.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/CBSNewsPoll/status/1792190066946986100?t=Aft4IV30FUz0i3nSQEE...

[wbrocks67]

They did a multi-candidate too:

Trump 44%
Biden 40%
Stein 5%
Someone else 5%
Not sure 5%

These #s aren't crazy, but given AZ's move leftward in recent years, I just don't buy that it's going to revert to being even more Republican than 2016.

It comes down to the nonwhite voters again though.

Among whites: Trump +7 (Trump +6 in 2020)
Hispanics: Trump +1 (Biden +24 in 2020)

Tell me where you've seen this before

[Mopsus]

FL is gone. Based on the rust belt polls from a few weeks ago this seems to confirm that the easiest path does in fact lie through those 3 states (MI/WI/PA)

That gets Biden only to 269. He would need NE-2 to win.

Can't believe I am saying this but for the first time in the History of the United States of America
269-269 seems legitimately in play this November.

You heard it here first: The EC is going to be a 269-269 split and Republicans are going to lose the House this November, but they are going to elect Trump president as their final act in power. It would just be too fitting.

[iceman]

At this point I just can’t see Arizona as lean D or Tossup. It should be Lean R at minimum. Biden hasn’t led in a single poll in Arizona since July 2023!

[wbrocks67]

At this point I just can’t see Arizona as lean D or Tossup. It should be Lean R at minimum. Biden hasn’t led in a single poll in Arizona since July 2023!

There was a Data Orbital poll last week that had him +1

[iceman]

Border issue having obvious resonance in the Sun Belt.

https://twitter.com/CBSNewsPoll/status/1792187447591194953?t=HCKxvnjV1PoUNUUhDXH...

Probably much more worse in Texas.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Once again we see AZ polls not matching the S results I don't believe this silly poll

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

FL is gone. Based on the rust belt polls from a few weeks ago this seems to confirm that the easiest path does in fact lie through those 3 states (MI/WI/PA)

That gets Biden only to 269. He would need NE-2 to win.

Can't believe I am saying this but for the first time in the History of the United States of America
269-269 seems legitimately in play this November.

You heard it here first: The EC is going to be a 269-269 split and Republicans are going to lose the House this November, but they are going to elect Trump president as their final act in power. It would just be too fitting.

The new house is seated before the electoral college convenes. However, they are still likely to control more state delegations (although the math is harder with Alaska in Democratic hands.)

[Matty]

An Arizona +5 poll is perfectly in line with a tied national race

[Rubensim]

So it appear this election seem to be tied for now
Well this is pretty decisive and with trump seeming to plan a rally in a few days if biden doesn't have a rally too in mind we might see a bit of a lean toward the Reps.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

An Arizona +5 poll is perfectly in line with a tied national race

These are polls not votes what happened to Gov Lake not Hobbs there never was one

Users keep believing that polls are votes no it's not relax just wait til we vote, Vaccinated Bear

[Skill and Chance]

We’re in a weird place right now where the national polls are looking better for Biden but the swing state polls are still looking pretty bad for him. However this looks to be the same polling outfit that showed close races in the rust belt trio.

I’m not skilled enough to offer a thorough explanation for this, but I still feel better about Biden’s chances compared to a few months ago.

I don't think the national polls are looking that great for Biden?  It generally averages to Trump by less than +1.  Biden does have a few +1 or +2 leads out there, but that's not really consistent with the median state in the EC being all that competitive.  If 2020 was Biden +2, he probably gains nothing over Clinton 2016 in the EC except maybe Michigan.  If you assume Trump is getting an additional 1-2% out of NYC and Florida, maybe that nets Biden Pennsylvania and Michigan while Trump wins all his other 2016 states (and with the clear Hispanic R trend, NV).  That's basically what current state polling looks like.  Biden might be up in PA and/or MI but he's in huge trouble everywhere else, and state level polling in WI understates Trump like nobody's business.

[MillennialModerate]

Whoever said Arizona is least likely to flip has lost there mind