Havard/Harris National Poll: Trump + 6

[CookieDamage]

Obvious junk is obvious.

There won't be a six point margin this year, and certainly not for Trump. He would be happy to win the popular vote at all.

In mid April 2020, Harvard Harris showed Biden getting 53 to Trump's 47. In mid May 2020 they also showed Biden up 53-47. Quite literally the reverse of what Harvard Harris shows now. I am not sure what's so unbelievable about Trump winning the popular vote. It's not inconceivable at this point.

[iceman]

Obvious junk is obvious.

There won't be a six point margin this year, and certainly not for Trump. He would be happy to win the popular vote at all.

In mid April 2020, Harvard Harris showed Biden getting 53 to Trump's 47. In mid May 2020 they also showed Biden up 53-47. Quite literally the reverse of what Harvard Harris shows now. I am not sure what's so unbelievable about Trump winning the popular vote. It's not inconceivable at this point.

While there is reason to believe Trump may actually win the popular vote, it is highly likely not because he is gaining a lot of supporters but more on Biden losing a lot to third party. I can’t picture out Trump winning the popular vote with outright majority.

[Fancyarcher]

Red avatars need to get real. Biden has been down in almost every poll lately, and is down in swing states. You can't just junk every poll and chalk it up to one excuse or the other. Biden is very obviously down as evidenced by a wide array of polls and is on track to lose not only the EC but the popular vote as well.

Midterm performances and special election results are not the same as a presidential election, stop using that as a retort to Biden's poor polling.

Weren't  you one of the Biden and Harris hacks before 20 I seem to recall because you are probably Solid with a different user name


You also said Cruz was likely to be ousted not going well for especially Harris and ALLRED

I am not a concern troll nor a doomer. Doomers and concern trolls were talking about GOP waves in 2018 and Biden losing in 2020, they were divorced from reality and trying to get a rise out of people. I am looking at Biden's consistently poor numbers as evidenced by data that cannot be waved away. If the rolls were reversed yall would be rightfully expecting a Biden victory and laughing at delusional trumpers who insisted the polls were cooked.

Actually, before usual suspects Harvard Harris and McLaughlin, most of the non-state polls were pointing to a statistical tie or a slight Biden lead. If their trend continues than it's bad, yes, but there's a lot of getting worked up over questionable polls right now.

[President Johnson]

Obvious junk is obvious.

There won't be a six point margin this year, and certainly not for Trump. He would be happy to win the popular vote at all.

In mid April 2020, Harvard Harris showed Biden getting 53 to Trump's 47. In mid May 2020 they also showed Biden up 53-47. Quite literally the reverse of what Harvard Harris shows now. I am not sure what's so unbelievable about Trump winning the popular vote. It's not inconceivable at this point.

If he wins the popular vote, certainly won't be by six. Maybe one or one and a half. Not even Dubya could edge out a three point win in 2004.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Obvious junk is obvious.

There won't be a six point margin this year, and certainly not for Trump. He would be happy to win the popular vote at all.

     While I do agree Trump doesn't win by 6, I'll just point out that this is the same mindset Atlas brought to the table in 2014. We all know how that went.

[President Johnson]

Obvious junk is obvious.

There won't be a six point margin this year, and certainly not for Trump. He would be happy to win the popular vote at all.

     While I do agree Trump doesn't win by 6, I'll just point out that this is the same mindset Atlas brought to the table in 2014. We all know how that went.

We've all been wrong over time. And I honestly would be more worried if this poll was out in late September or into October (assuming other polls were as they are, but even then this one is an outlier).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This  is a Mark Penn pollster poll and he is founder of No Labels Party we Ds aren't gonna be listening to him

[OSR stands with Israel]

Obvious junk is obvious.

There won't be a six point margin this year, and certainly not for Trump. He would be happy to win the popular vote at all.

In mid April 2020, Harvard Harris showed Biden getting 53 to Trump's 47. In mid May 2020 they also showed Biden up 53-47. Quite literally the reverse of what Harvard Harris shows now. I am not sure what's so unbelievable about Trump winning the popular vote. It's not inconceivable at this point.

If he wins the popular vote, certainly won't be by six. Maybe one or one and a half. Not even Dubya could edge out a three point win in 2004.

And Bush was up by high single digits as late as September as well but then the race became competitive again after he faceplanted at the debates.

Well the question could be whether Bush was ever gonna win by high single digits to begin with and if the debates just were there to provide democrats with a reason for why they opposed Bush to begin with.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Obvious junk is obvious.

There won't be a six point margin this year, and certainly not for Trump. He would be happy to win the popular vote at all.

     While I do agree Trump doesn't win by 6, I'll just point out that this is the same mindset Atlas brought to the table in 2014. We all know how that went.

We've all been wrong over time. And I honestly would be more worried if this poll was out in late September or into October (assuming other polls were as they are, but even then this one is an outlier).

     Sure, having two (or more) sides in a factual dispute means someone has to be wrong. I bring it up to caution that maybe we should be more circumspect than saying "obvious junk is obvious", because I heard that once before when the obvious junk actually turned out to be fairly accurate.

[iceman]

Obvious junk is obvious.

There won't be a six point margin this year, and certainly not for Trump. He would be happy to win the popular vote at all.

     While I do agree Trump doesn't win by 6, I'll just point out that this is the same mindset Atlas brought to the table in 2014. We all know how that went.

We've all been wrong over time. And I honestly would be more worried if this poll was out in late September or into October (assuming other polls were as they are, but even then this one is an outlier).

     Sure, having two (or more) sides in a factual dispute means someone has to be wrong. I bring it up to caution that maybe we should be more circumspect than saying "obvious junk is obvious", because I heard that once before when the obvious junk actually turned out to be fairly accurate.

Way back in 2016, Trafalgar polls were deemed as rubbish and dismissed as bogus. They were even rated as C by Nate Silver, but turned out to be very accurate. Their methodology used is still a bit questionable to some, but we don’t know how they ended up being spot on in 2016.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Obvious junk is obvious.

There won't be a six point margin this year, and certainly not for Trump. He would be happy to win the popular vote at all.

     While I do agree Trump doesn't win by 6, I'll just point out that this is the same mindset Atlas brought to the table in 2014. We all know how that went.

We've all been wrong over time. And I honestly would be more worried if this poll was out in late September or into October (assuming other polls were as they are, but even then this one is an outlier).

     Sure, having two (or more) sides in a factual dispute means someone has to be wrong. I bring it up to caution that maybe we should be more circumspect than saying "obvious junk is obvious", because I heard that once before when the obvious junk actually turned out to be fairly accurate.

Way back in 2016, Trafalgar polls were deemed as rubbish and dismissed as bogus. They were even rated as C by Nate Silver, but turned out to be very accurate. Their methodology used is still a bit questionable to some, but we don’t know how they ended up being spot on in 2016.

yeah and how did they do in 2022

[GAinDC]

Why is everyone getting worked up over a Harvard/Harrris Poll?

Someone also mentioned McLaughlin as a reason for concern but just a few days ago they showed a tie and it barely registered on here

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Does Biden listen to these Rs that throw out lugs to others no he doesn't he is governing and fundraiser

It's always the same pollsters that show Trump leading it's a Mark Penn poll

[Tekken_Guy]

Red avatars need to get real. Biden has been down in almost every poll lately, and is down worse in swing states. You can't just junk every poll and claim they are all poor outfits. Biden is very obviously down as evidenced by a wide array of polls and is on track to lose not only the EC but the popular vote as well.

He has not lead in the 538 aggregate once nor has he led in the RCP tracker since last OCTOBER. And yes RCP is very partisan but the fact remains he is behind. They were right leaning in 2020 too but still showed a consistent Biden lead.

Midterm performances and special election results are not the same as a presidential election, stop using that as a retort to Biden's poor polling.

Weren’t you fairly optimistic on Biden’s chances a month ago?

Biden narrowly. The fundamentals are starting to take shape. The economy is not in a bad place, inflation isn't blowing up, and Trump's legal troubles are becoming highly publicized.

[CookieDamage]

Red avatars need to get real. Biden has been down in almost every poll lately, and is down worse in swing states. You can't just junk every poll and claim they are all poor outfits. Biden is very obviously down as evidenced by a wide array of polls and is on track to lose not only the EC but the popular vote as well.

He has not lead in the 538 aggregate once nor has he led in the RCP tracker since last OCTOBER. And yes RCP is very partisan but the fact remains he is behind. They were right leaning in 2020 too but still showed a consistent Biden lead.

Midterm performances and special election results are not the same as a presidential election, stop using that as a retort to Biden's poor polling.

Weren’t you fairly optimistic on Biden’s chances a month ago?

Biden narrowly. The fundamentals are starting to take shape. The economy is not in a bad place, inflation isn't blowing up, and Trump's legal troubles are becoming highly publicized.

I'm not sure if this is news to you but some people change their minds when presented with continuing data. Trump's trial clearly isn't changing minds, people are less sanguine on the economy than I figured they'd be, and Biden's polling just sucks. Also, I wasn't predicting a safe Biden victory, I said "narrowly" and I still hold that's possible. However at this point I think a loss is just more likely.

[Tekken_Guy]

Red avatars need to get real. Biden has been down in almost every poll lately, and is down worse in swing states. You can't just junk every poll and claim they are all poor outfits. Biden is very obviously down as evidenced by a wide array of polls and is on track to lose not only the EC but the popular vote as well.

He has not lead in the 538 aggregate once nor has he led in the RCP tracker since last OCTOBER. And yes RCP is very partisan but the fact remains he is behind. They were right leaning in 2020 too but still showed a consistent Biden lead.

Midterm performances and special election results are not the same as a presidential election, stop using that as a retort to Biden's poor polling.

Weren’t you fairly optimistic on Biden’s chances a month ago?

Biden narrowly. The fundamentals are starting to take shape. The economy is not in a bad place, inflation isn't blowing up, and Trump's legal troubles are becoming highly publicized.

I'm not sure if this is news to you but some people change their minds when presented with continuing data. Trump's trial clearly isn't changing minds, people are less sanguine on the economy than I figured they'd be, and Biden's polling just sucks. Also, I wasn't predicting a safe Biden victory, I said "narrowly" and I still hold that's possible. However at this point I think a loss is just more likely.

What exactly caused you to change your tune? Was it NYT/Siena last week?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No Ds should be listening to Harris X as I said earlier it's ran by Penn he wants to show Trump is crushing Biden

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Obvious junk is obvious.

There won't be a six point margin this year, and certainly not for Trump. He would be happy to win the popular vote at all.

     While I do agree Trump doesn't win by 6, I'll just point out that this is the same mindset Atlas brought to the table in 2014. We all know how that went.

We've all been wrong over time. And I honestly would be more worried if this poll was out in late September or into October (assuming other polls were as they are, but even then this one is an outlier).

     Sure, having two (or more) sides in a factual dispute means someone has to be wrong. I bring it up to caution that maybe we should be more circumspect than saying "obvious junk is obvious", because I heard that once before when the obvious junk actually turned out to be fairly accurate.

Way back in 2016, Trafalgar polls were deemed as rubbish and dismissed as bogus. They were even rated as C by Nate Silver, but turned out to be very accurate. Their methodology used is still a bit questionable to some, but we don’t know how they ended up being spot on in 2016.

yeah and how did they do in 2022

To be fair, Trafalgar still has a better track record than most major outlets, considering they only got one major election cycle massively wrong rather than two

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Obvious junk is obvious.

There won't be a six point margin this year, and certainly not for Trump. He would be happy to win the popular vote at all.

     While I do agree Trump doesn't win by 6, I'll just point out that this is the same mindset Atlas brought to the table in 2014. We all know how that went.

We've all been wrong over time. And I honestly would be more worried if this poll was out in late September or into October (assuming other polls were as they are, but even then this one is an outlier).

     Sure, having two (or more) sides in a factual dispute means someone has to be wrong. I bring it up to caution that maybe we should be more circumspect than saying "obvious junk is obvious", because I heard that once before when the obvious junk actually turned out to be fairly accurate.

Way back in 2016, Trafalgar polls were deemed as rubbish and dismissed as bogus. They were even rated as C by Nate Silver, but turned out to be very accurate. Their methodology used is still a bit questionable to some, but we don’t know how they ended up being spot on in 2016.

yeah and how did they do in 2022

To be fair, Trafalgar still has a better track record than most major outlets, considering they only got one major election cycle massively wrong rather than two

My problem with Trafalgar, is regardless how accurate they may be is I'm not sure if they make up their data or not. It's some southern conservative guy and his bulldog releasing polls from their Atlanta home which seems somewhat sketchy. They don't release crosstabs either to deny the allegations.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Obvious junk is obvious.

There won't be a six point margin this year, and certainly not for Trump. He would be happy to win the popular vote at all.

     While I do agree Trump doesn't win by 6, I'll just point out that this is the same mindset Atlas brought to the table in 2014. We all know how that went.

We've all been wrong over time. And I honestly would be more worried if this poll was out in late September or into October (assuming other polls were as they are, but even then this one is an outlier).

     Sure, having two (or more) sides in a factual dispute means someone has to be wrong. I bring it up to caution that maybe we should be more circumspect than saying "obvious junk is obvious", because I heard that once before when the obvious junk actually turned out to be fairly accurate.

Way back in 2016, Trafalgar polls were deemed as rubbish and dismissed as bogus. They were even rated as C by Nate Silver, but turned out to be very accurate. Their methodology used is still a bit questionable to some, but we don’t know how they ended up being spot on in 2016.

yeah and how did they do in 2022

To be fair, Trafalgar still has a better track record than most major outlets, considering they only got one major election cycle massively wrong rather than two

My problem with Trafalgar, is regardless how accurate they may be is I'm not sure if they make up their data or not. It's some southern conservative guy and his bulldog releasing polls from their Atlanta home which seems somewhat sketchy. They don't release crosstabs either to deny the allegations.

I don't trust Trafalgar at all and I think they make up their numbers.
I just find it funny how the libs on here dismiss any polling firm that got 2022 wrong when they don't have the same attitude towards the pollsters that got 2016 and 2020 wrong (although tbf they don't trust any pollster that has Biden down nowadays).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol IPSOS AND MARIST HAS BIDEN +3