Presidential polls are useless. Will Trump win? Will Biden? Nobody has a crystal ball.

[American2020]

I have bad news: Americans are political polling themselves to death.

There are way too many people standing open-mouthed in front of the firehose of “BREAKING PRESIDENTIAL POLLING NEWS.” They’re gagging or growing bloated and, quite frankly, I think it’s affecting their brains.

Right this moment, just past the mid-point of May, there are only three things any of us can say with certainty about the November presidential election:

Donald Trump might win.

Joe Biden might win.

RFK Jr. is definitely not going to win.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/columnist/2024/05/19/trump-biden-polling-swing-states-ignore-them/73705965007/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs are trolling Ds like they have a crystal ball and Trump is gonna win that's the insurrection of J6 to put doubt and fear in voters minds so Trump wins

[GAinDC]

I agree. I'm trying to embrace the uncertainty.

That's one thing that bothers me about Atlas -- we focus too much on polls and we let them guide the discourse.

That was the case in 2020 when the great polls for Biden blinded many to Trump's strengths.

That was the case in 2022 when we let garbage polls convince us that a red wave was coming and that Dobbs, Jan 6, and horrible GOP candidates wouldn't stop it from crashing.

And I think it's the case now, when many are already writing Biden's obit and ignoring other advantages he has in this race.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

I am starting to get tired of the whole “WE’RE BACK” “ITS OVER” discourse.

I’m barely even using polls in my predictions because regardless of weather they have Biden or Trump up, from both candidates under 45 in many of them (RFK Is not getting THAT much) to results all over the place (we had Trump +8 in MI and Biden +10 in PA get released in just the span of a couple weeks a little while back) they just aren’t telling us much rn.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I do have a crystal ball, but unfortunately it's broken and I can't get parts for it anymore.

[cherry mandarin]

We had Trump +8 in MI and Biden +10 in PA get released in just the span of a couple weeks a little while back.

This happens every cycle. It doesn't mean the polls are bad. There's a MOE for a reason.

With regard to PA, MI, and other states specifically, the good news is we have plenty of polling (even more so as Election Day approaches). This is why it's ten times more instructive to look at the averages rather than a single survey, let alone a sub-sample with a sample size of 50 or whatever.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I agree, but I would really like to start seeing some positive trends in Biden's direction.

[SnowLabrador]

They're one metric, but all the metrics we have show troubling trends for Sleepy Joe.

[Obama24]

I agree, but I would really like to start seeing some positive trends in Biden's direction.

With him putting his foot in his mouth over and over with regards Gaza, you're not going to see it anytime soon. I'm coming to believe that Gaza is to Biden what the pandemic was to Trump. An unforeseeable event, the handling of which by the respective parties, doomed their re-election bid.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I agree, but I would really like to start seeing some positive trends in Biden's direction.

With him putting his foot in his mouth over and over with regards Gaza, you're not going to see it anytime soon. I'm coming to believe that Gaza is to Biden what the pandemic was to Trump. An unforeseeable event, the handling of which by the respective parties, doomed their re-election bid.

Foreigners always are entangled in wars from now on there won't be any peace while an American president is in office

Iran attacked US in Iraq during Trump administration, that's why it was stupid to leave Afghanistan the axis of evil saw it as a weakness we let Taliban run Afghanistan

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Polls absolutely are not the end all be all, but what would concern me if I was the Biden campaign is three things.

1) The polls seem to consistently be pointing to a Biden EC loss. In fact since the dawn of this year there have only been 3 polls that would give Biden an electoral college win on the same split as 2020. Two of them were QPAC and the other was Reuters/Ipsos which could be useless since it was only 41-37 with high undecideds. If it was only Rasmussen or Trafalgar or R internals pointing to a Trump win, then I could understand throwing them out. However, it seems like everything is pointing to close to a tie in the PV (closer to Trump+1) which is an easy win for Trump in the electoral college.

2) The polls underestimated Trump twice before. That doesn't mean they will do so this time but its worth noting. Sure they were accurate in 2018 and off in 2022, but I value the two Presidential elections with Trump rather than midterms. Even in 2022, the generic ballot which was the only national poll was fairly accurate.

3) Down ballot Dems are doing fine. This is probably the most concerning part for the Biden campaign. In 2016 and 2020 the polls were overestimating Dems across the board from the Presidency to the Senate seat to the House races and beyond. However, down ballot Democrats are doing fairly decent and arguably better than you would expect considering Biden's struggles. They have a generic ballot lead and pretty solid margins in the Senate races like AZ/NV/PA/etc. If the polls were heavily off I think we would be seeing Casey trailing, and Klobuchar with a weak lead but we are not. Casey is up 5, Rosen is up 5, Baldwin is up 7, Gallego is up 6, Brown is up 5, and Tester is up nearly 6. Meanwhile Trump is leading in all of those states, and some by big margins. If you think polls are off the same way as 2022, why are Dems doing so well in those races? The problem Biden is facing is uniquely Biden, and doesn't show up anywhere else.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Polls absolutely are not the end all be all, but what would concern me if I was the Biden campaign is three things.

1) The polls seem to consistently be pointing to a Biden EC loss. In fact since the dawn of this year there have only been 3 polls that would give Biden an electoral college win on the same split as 2020. Two of them were QPAC and the other was Reuters/Ipsos which could be useless since it was only 41-37 with high undecideds. If it was only Rasmussen or Trafalgar or R internals pointing to a Trump win, then I could understand throwing them out. However, it seems like everything is pointing to close to a tie in the PV (closer to Trump+1) which is an easy win for Trump in the electoral college.

2) The polls underestimated Trump twice before. That doesn't mean they will do so this time but its worth noting. Sure they were accurate in 2018 and off in 2022, but I value the two Presidential elections with Trump rather than midterms. Even in 2022, the generic ballot which was the only national poll was fairly accurate.

3) Down ballot Dems are doing fine. This is probably the most concerning part for the Biden campaign. In 2016 and 2020 the polls were overestimating Dems across the board from the Presidency to the Senate seat to the House races and beyond. However, down ballot Democrats are doing fairly decent and arguably better than you would expect considering Biden's struggles. They have a generic ballot lead and pretty solid margins in the Senate races like AZ/NV/PA/etc. If the polls were heavily off I think we would be seeing Casey trailing, and Klobuchar with a weak lead but we are not. Casey is up 5, Rosen is up 5, Baldwin is up 7, Gallego is up 6, Brown is up 5, and Tester is up nearly 6. Meanwhile Trump is leading in all of those states, and some by big margins. If you think polls are off the same way as 2022, why are Dems doing so well in those races? The problem Biden is facing is uniquely Biden, and doesn't show up anywhere else.

This is wrong Marist still has Biden +3 all we need is the rust Belt NH, NV and VA that's 275


Way to go to cherry pick Mark Penn Harris X, and Siena polls, IPSOS nYT has it Biden +3

[cherry mandarin]

A tie in the PV or Trump+1 would equate to an easy win for Trump in the electoral college.

Polling and demographic trends seem to suggest otherwise.

Even in 2022, the generic ballot which was the only national poll was fairly accurate.

But the presidency is decided by what happens in the key swing states, not the popular vote, and Dems largely outperformed their polling in those states in 2022.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

A tie in the PV or Trump+1 would equate to an easy win for Trump in the electoral college.

Polling and demographic trends seem to suggest otherwise.

Even in 2022, the generic ballot which was the only national poll was fairly accurate.

But the presidency is decided by what happens in the key swing states, not the popular vote, and Dems largely outperformed their polling in those states in 2022.

Well the reason for this is because Rs nominated worse candidates in swing states then they did in safe states. 2022 was nearly 500 candidates in different districts and states. The presidential election is the same Trump vs Biden matchup everywhere you go. If Trump is hated by suburban voters in swing states he is going to be hated by suburban voters in safe states and vice versa.

[Tekken_Guy]

Polls absolutely are not the end all be all, but what would concern me if I was the Biden campaign is three things.

1) The polls seem to consistently be pointing to a Biden EC loss. In fact since the dawn of this year there have only been 3 polls that would give Biden an electoral college win on the same split as 2020. Two of them were QPAC and the other was Reuters/Ipsos which could be useless since it was only 41-37 with high undecideds. If it was only Rasmussen or Trafalgar or R internals pointing to a Trump win, then I could understand throwing them out. However, it seems like everything is pointing to close to a tie in the PV (closer to Trump+1) which is an easy win for Trump in the electoral college.

2) The polls underestimated Trump twice before. That doesn't mean they will do so this time but its worth noting. Sure they were accurate in 2018 and off in 2022, but I value the two Presidential elections with Trump rather than midterms. Even in 2022, the generic ballot which was the only national poll was fairly accurate.

3) Down ballot Dems are doing fine. This is probably the most concerning part for the Biden campaign. In 2016 and 2020 the polls were overestimating Dems across the board from the Presidency to the Senate seat to the House races and beyond. However, down ballot Democrats are doing fairly decent and arguably better than you would expect considering Biden's struggles. They have a generic ballot lead and pretty solid margins in the Senate races like AZ/NV/PA/etc. If the polls were heavily off I think we would be seeing Casey trailing, and Klobuchar with a weak lead but we are not. Casey is up 5, Rosen is up 5, Baldwin is up 7, Gallego is up 6, Brown is up 5, and Tester is up nearly 6. Meanwhile Trump is leading in all of those states, and some by big margins. If you think polls are off the same way as 2022, why are Dems doing so well in those races? The problem Biden is facing is uniquely Biden, and doesn't show up anywhere else.

Except Trump’s EC advantage has largely disappeared according to polls. Polls show Trump having modest leads in GA/AZ/NV but only marginal ones in PA/MI/WI that could easily fall in Biden’s direction if he were to narrowly win the PV, and if they do he wins 270-268.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Polls absolutely are not the end all be all, but what would concern me if I was the Biden campaign is three things.

1) The polls seem to consistently be pointing to a Biden EC loss. In fact since the dawn of this year there have only been 3 polls that would give Biden an electoral college win on the same split as 2020. Two of them were QPAC and the other was Reuters/Ipsos which could be useless since it was only 41-37 with high undecideds. If it was only Rasmussen or Trafalgar or R internals pointing to a Trump win, then I could understand throwing them out. However, it seems like everything is pointing to close to a tie in the PV (closer to Trump+1) which is an easy win for Trump in the electoral college.

2) The polls underestimated Trump twice before. That doesn't mean they will do so this time but its worth noting. Sure they were accurate in 2018 and off in 2022, but I value the two Presidential elections with Trump rather than midterms. Even in 2022, the generic ballot which was the only national poll was fairly accurate.

3) Down ballot Dems are doing fine. This is probably the most concerning part for the Biden campaign. In 2016 and 2020 the polls were overestimating Dems across the board from the Presidency to the Senate seat to the House races and beyond. However, down ballot Democrats are doing fairly decent and arguably better than you would expect considering Biden's struggles. They have a generic ballot lead and pretty solid margins in the Senate races like AZ/NV/PA/etc. If the polls were heavily off I think we would be seeing Casey trailing, and Klobuchar with a weak lead but we are not. Casey is up 5, Rosen is up 5, Baldwin is up 7, Gallego is up 6, Brown is up 5, and Tester is up nearly 6. Meanwhile Trump is leading in all of those states, and some by big margins. If you think polls are off the same way as 2022, why are Dems doing so well in those races? The problem Biden is facing is uniquely Biden, and doesn't show up anywhere else.

Except Trump’s EC advantage has largely disappeared according to polls. Polls show Trump having modest leads in GA/AZ/NV but only marginal ones in PA/MI/WI that could easily fall in Biden’s direction if he were to narrowly win the PV, and if they do he wins 270-268.

The thing is though GA and AZ polls tend to be the most accurate whereas Wisconsin is the worst. The popular vote is somewhere in the middle. Wisconsin literally trended R in 2020 and was only Biden+0.6 in 2020. If Trump is indeed up in the popular vote by 1 Wisconsin isn't even close right now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Polls absolutely are not the end all be all, but what would concern me if I was the Biden campaign is three things.

1) The polls seem to consistently be pointing to a Biden EC loss. In fact since the dawn of this year there have only been 3 polls that would give Biden an electoral college win on the same split as 2020. Two of them were QPAC and the other was Reuters/Ipsos which could be useless since it was only 41-37 with high undecideds. If it was only Rasmussen or Trafalgar or R internals pointing to a Trump win, then I could understand throwing them out. However, it seems like everything is pointing to close to a tie in the PV (closer to Trump+1) which is an easy win for Trump in the electoral college.

2) The polls underestimated Trump twice before. That doesn't mean they will do so this time but its worth noting. Sure they were accurate in 2018 and off in 2022, but I value the two Presidential elections with Trump rather than midterms. Even in 2022, the generic ballot which was the only national poll was fairly accurate.

3) Down ballot Dems are doing fine. This is probably the most concerning part for the Biden campaign. In 2016 and 2020 the polls were overestimating Dems across the board from the Presidency to the Senate seat to the House races and beyond. However, down ballot Democrats are doing fairly decent and arguably better than you would expect considering Biden's struggles. They have a generic ballot lead and pretty solid margins in the Senate races like AZ/NV/PA/etc. If the polls were heavily off I think we would be seeing Casey trailing, and Klobuchar with a weak lead but we are not. Casey is up 5, Rosen is up 5, Baldwin is up 7, Gallego is up 6, Brown is up 5, and Tester is up nearly 6. Meanwhile Trump is leading in all of those states, and some by big margins. If you think polls are off the same way as 2022, why are Dems doing so well in those races? The problem Biden is facing is uniquely Biden, and doesn't show up anywhere else.

Except Trump’s EC advantage has largely disappeared according to polls. Polls show Trump having modest leads in GA/AZ/NV but only marginal ones in PA/MI/WI that could easily fall in Biden’s direction if he were to narrowly win the PV, and if they do he wins 270-268.

The thing is though GA and AZ polls tend to be the most accurate whereas Wisconsin is the worst. The popular vote is somewhere in the middle. Wisconsin literally trended R in 2020 and was only Biden+0.6 in 2020. If Trump is indeed up in the popular vote by 1 Wisconsin isn't even close right now.

Wrong again Trafalgar had Gov Lake Biden is gonna win AZ if Gallego won

We won the judge race in 23, by 12 pts and Baldwin is winning by 12

I love how Rs put up such inaccuracies like  they own WI and Evers won look at the compiled map it's wrong it has WI going R and Baldwin is up 12

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is gonna win Rs need to stop Nick picking him based on R polls

[BlueSwan]

This is a stable race where Donald Trump has a healthy swing state lead. There are pretty much no unknowns to speak of. People know exactly who these two candidates are and it's gonna be extremely hard to change anybody's mind. The "it's only may" excuse may have been useful in the past, but there is very good reason to believe that the 2024 is different than past elections. Tell me exactly what info would make people leave Trump or flock to Biden? For every left wing Biden holdout who caves, there's gonna be a Haley supporter caving in to Trump.

[Tekken_Guy]

This is a stable race where Donald Trump has a healthy swing state lead. There are pretty much no unknowns to speak of. People know exactly who these two candidates are and it's gonna be extremely hard to change anybody's mind. The "it's only may" excuse may have been useful in the past, but there is very good reason to believe that the 2024 is different than past elections. Tell me exactly what info would make people leave Trump or flock to Biden? For every left wing Biden holdout who caves, there's gonna be a Haley supporter caving in to Trump.

Trump’s swing state lead is healthy in the sun belt but it’s basically MoE in the rust belt.

[cherry mandarin]

This is a stable race where Donald Trump has a healthy swing state lead. There are pretty much no unknowns to speak of. People know exactly who these two candidates are and it's gonna be extremely hard to change anybody's mind. The "it's only may" excuse may have been useful in the past, but there is very good reason to believe that the 2024 is different than past elections. Tell me exactly what info would make people leave Trump or flock to Biden? For every left wing Biden holdout who caves, there's gonna be a Haley supporter caving in to Trump.

So far this cycle, there's been substantially more volatility in the polling than we saw in 2020. Granted, some of this lack of movement can probably be explained away by the fact that we were entering a major pandemic at this point four years ago, and so people's minds were naturally on more important things than the presidential election which was still months away. Nonetheless, it only started having an impact the year of the election, and people's sentiments appeared baked into stone during Trump's entire presidency.

Considering the data we've gotten, I wouldn't be so quick to rule out the possibility that we may yet end up seeing significant shifts in public opinion between now and November.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Job Approval is the better metric to go by…

[David Hume]

I do have a crystal ball, but unfortunately it's broken and I can't get parts for it anymore.

The major problem is polling agencies keep updating their weighting method every cycle. We cannot use the difference between previous polling and result as references, since they may already adjusted or over-adjusted. If they overrated R by 3 last time, they may underrate by 2 this time because of that. Had they stay the same, it would be much easier for us to make predictions. Ironically the polling agencies trying to correct their previous errors makes it harder to make predictions.

[Frodo]

-President Joe Biden and Donald Trump tied 269 to 269 in the electoral college

-The House split 217/217 between Democrats and Republicans with an independent holding the balance of power between the two -and potentially determining who is to be our next President if the above happens (after all the recounts and court decisions, etc).

-The Senate also split 50/50 between Democrats and Republicans, and any senator now has the power to determine who is to be our next Vice-President.  
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How likely is the above scenario after November?  

[David Hume]

-President Joe Biden and Donald Trump tied 269 to 269 in the electoral college

-The House split 217/217 between Democrats and Republicans with an independent holding the balance of power between the two -and potentially determining who is to be our next President if the above happens (after all the recounts and court decisions, etc).

-The Senate also split 50/50 between Democrats and Republicans, and any senator now has the power to determine who is to be our next Vice-President.  
------------------------------------------------

How likely is the above scenario after November?  

In case the electoral college is tied, the House vote by state. So a tie would be 25/25.