If this is a re-alignment election; why?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Say the polls are right - non-white voters across the board swing 20%+ right, age polarization vanishes or possibly even inverts, and so on

Why would this election specifically be such a large re-aligning election? Both the candidates are the same form the last election. Neither’s messaging has changed significantly. There hasn’t been some major recession or world war. What would be the acclimate for this sort of re-alignment?

This is personally part of the reason I don’t really buy polls right now - they suggests a massive re-alignment which I just don’t see justified. Yes I buy non-white voters could swing right and seniors could swing a tad left, but by nowhere near the magnitude polls suggest. In general most of the “re-alignment” type results in polls seem to favor Trump, which is part of the reason I believe polls are currently underestimating Biden.

[pikachu]

I agree that a realignment doesn’t make sense. This cycle’s been odd for me bc I’m someone who’s generally a big believer in the polls and topline numbers make a lot of sense, but yeah, I have a really hard time buying that we’re about to see a realignment for the reasons you listed + American society going to hell in the election and not provoking the kind of shift that 2024 polls are suggesting.

I can sort of see the rationale for a big swing right among young voters and nonwhites even if I’m a skeptic. Both groups feel awful about the economy at present, have large groups of nonvoters who could be activated by that, and outside of older blacks, are more swingy regardless. There’s also been a lot of digital ink spilled on reasons why men might move away from Dems en masse.

I have no idea why seniors would see a big swing left though. This is an age cohort that’s voted GOP multiple times, people become less swingy as they age, and there haven’t been any events during the Biden presidency that would provoke a swing to him. If anything, considering that inflation is worse for savers, you’d expect the opposite.

[cherry mandarin]

If this is a re-alignment election, why?

Because it's about past time. Re-aligning elections are events that tend to happen approximately every generation or so, and as such we're sort of overdue for one right about now.

And yes, the 2024 re-alignment that polls are suggesting is real.

There’s also been a lot of digital ink spilled on reasons why men might move away from Dems en masse.

Depending on which surveys you choose to consult, the gender gap has narrowed either slightly or significantly since 2020, but either way the chasm between the two sides appears to have closed somewhat during this time frame. This continues the trend we saw from polling during this spring's primary race, where Trump performed better among women than men while Haley did better with men than women, despite the candidates' own respective genders. Of course the GE electorate will look far different than that of the GOP primary, but this general rule can still be decently instructive for what we'll see in the fall.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

I have no idea why seniors would see a big swing left though. This is an age cohort that’s voted GOP multiple times, people become less swingy as they age, and there haven’t been any events during the Biden presidency that would provoke a swing to him. If anything, considering that inflation is worse for savers, you’d expect the opposite.

This NYT piece by Nate Cohn gives the only explanation that makes any sense to me (not that I entirely believe the premise)- generational turnover of the >65 cohort.

How ‘All in the Family’ Explains Biden’s Strength Among Seniors
Yesterday’s hippies have become today’s seniors — and they’re still voting Democratic.

Of course, just because Mr. Obama most likely won today’s seniors doesn’t mean President Biden will do so. But in the last presidential election, Mr. Biden won 48 percent of seniors, a tally almost identical to our estimate of how Mr. Obama probably fared among the same voters. The simplest explanation is that compositional change, rather than a change in attitudes, has been driving Democratic gains.
Over the last four years, the last cohort of relatively Democratic boomers became seniors (the youngest boomers are politically more like Gen X and haven’t hit 65 yet). It’s entirely possible that Mr. Biden won today’s seniors in 2020. If so, Mr. Biden may not need to flip a single voter to turn seniors from red to blue in 2024.

I don't think this election will be a "realigning" one beyond 2020-2024 trends largely being a continuation of 2012-2020 trends.

The Trump-era R shift of 80s kids is visible here.

And yes, the 2024 re-alignment that polls are suggesting is real.

Trump gaining tons of raw votes among voters born after 1985 and an actual reversion of age polarization? For one thing, I suspect that the R trends (and swings) among every nonwhite voter group will be stronger among voters born before 1985.

[cherry mandarin]

I think younger voters becoming less D is a real thing.

Also, the screenshot you quoted is a chart of partisan affiliation and party ID, rather than 2024 presidential voting intentions. The trends are a lot clearer when respondents are presented the dual choice between Trump and Biden, rather than simply being asked for their voter registration.

Lastly, the idea of there being a "generation hippie" is vastly overstated. Contrary to popular perception, baby boomers are still a broadly conservative generation, as they always have been. It's simply the stark contrast between them and their silent-generation forerunners that really feeds into the stereotype, as does the vast gulf in cultural attitudes that became apparent in the aftermath of the second world war.

Sure, Generation X may have voted more Republican than Baby Boomers for quite some time now, but their partisan preferences and voting patterns belie and obscure their true opinions on the issues of the day. Their loyalty to the GOP has been far more a function of the national mood during their youth than a true indicator of where their hearts lie on matters of principle.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Two things of note i want to add

1. Young voters becoming less D is possible but doesn't necessarily mean that they'll become less liberal. A lot of those might simply stay home or vote third party/independent. They might be less partisan or think that the Democratic does not represent them due to the age of the president (and generally of politicians) and the fact that they feel not represented on themes like Palestine or student debt relief.

2. This is also a trend we noticed in Europe but I used to say, it was exclusive to Europe. Perhaps i'm wrong on that, and we're seeing the same trend in the United States. Studies in Western Europe noticed a widening gender gap where young females increasingly vote left wing and far left whereas young males increasingly vote right wing (likely in part as a response to the increasing relevance of right-wing parties & anti-establishment sentiment as well as growing up in an environment that is less institutionally dominated by traditional parties, and increasing voters apathy - in part due to the smaller size of their age demographic feeling less well represented). Lots of people also grow up in increasingly polarized environment esp. on social themes, with the woke vs anti-woke debate / metoo scandals and shifting social ideals.

Thuringia poll



Germany at large (and trends)



France (where Macron wins 65+)

The incumbent government (Macron faction) only gets 4% in this age demographic, which is basically the party/group closest to Biden. Macron however wins the 65+ demographic easily.



Flanders (18 to 22 year olds): Here we notice a big gender gap with females going Groen/Vooruit (green/soc dem), and males going strongly VB and lesser extent N-VA (far right and conservative)



Whatever we are observing seems to be a global trend. I used to think it was only a European thing/trend, but maybe i'm wrong about that. It also seems to have happened sudden (as the German poll indicates), which we see in USA but also France compared to an earlier poll in 2022 where the far right gained in all 3 polls considerably compared to a few years ago in this age group.

We even see a stronger trend not necessarily towards far right but anti-establishment/populist in general given the far left also seems to make gains in some countries like Belgium & France in this group, with losses for centrists/liberals, see 4% for Macron in France, the horrible performances for FDP or the last place for Liberal party OVLD in Flanders.

[Burke Bro]

I would say we’re in a period of dealignment, like America during the 1970s. In many ways, the current era, which started with Reagan, has come full circle. We’re back to a crisis in the Middle East, inflation due to supply chain problems (which the fed is trying to manage by increasing interest rates), and a domestic political situation that seems more unstable than ever. The once-dominant Reagan coalition of economic conservatives/evangelicals/security hawks has fallen apart. The only question is how the crisis of the day will be resolved and by which party, and I’m relatively certain that it won’t be resolved by either Biden or Trump, who are too unpopular and polarizing to win an overwhelming electoral mandate. If Haley or DeSantis won the Republican primary in 2024, I think we’d be having a much different discussion, but I guess we’re going to have to wait until 2028 and watch as sh* really hits the fan over the next four years.

[cherry mandarin]

I’m relatively certain that it won’t be resolved by either Biden or Trump. If Haley or DeSantis won the Republican primary in 2024, I think we’d be having a much different discussion.

And you think either of them could solve the problem? They would be way in over their heads, as extremely decisive figures without any semblance of a dedicated base filled with rabid supporters.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I would say we’re in a period of dealignment, like America during the 1970s. In many ways, the current era, which started with Reagan, has come full circle. We’re back to a crisis in the Middle East, inflation due to supply chain problems (which the fed is trying to manage by increasing interest rates), and a domestic political situation that seems more unstable than ever. The once-dominant Reagan coalition of economic conservatives/evangelicals/security hawks has fallen apart. The only question is how the crisis of the day will be resolved and by which party, and I’m relatively certain that it won’t be resolved by either Biden or Trump, who are too unpopular and polarizing to win an overwhelming electoral mandate. If Haley or DeSantis won the Republican primary in 2024, I think we’d be having a much different discussion, but I guess we’re going to have to wait until 2028 and watch as sh* really hits the fan over the next four years.

I think to be in a period of de-alignment that current times are too polarizing, esp on social issues. People are very likely to be either strongly-anti Republican or strongly anti-Democratic. And the strongest way of aligning with a side is mainly due to not liking the other. However i think at this point the number of people who are strongly anti-both though has been increasing esp. among young voters.

This year is actually fertile ground for an independent. I just don't think RFK jr. was the right person to capitalize on it, but if nobody really jumps into that gap, than well... RFK jr. will probably do relatively okay-ish due to his last name, unique weird brand and the fact that 2024 is fertile for independents.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I’m relatively certain that it won’t be resolved by either Biden or Trump. If Haley or DeSantis won the Republican primary in 2024, I think we’d be having a much different discussion.

And you think either of them could solve the problem? They would be way in over their heads, as extremely decisive figures without any semblance of a dedicated base filled with rabid supporters.

No-one of who is running (or did run in the primaries) is capable of uniting the nation.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Say the polls are right - non-white voters across the board swing 20%+ right, age polarization vanishes or possibly even inverts, and so on

Why would this election specifically be such a large re-aligning election? Both the candidates are the same form the last election. Neither’s messaging has changed significantly. There hasn’t been some major recession or world war. What would be the acclimate for this sort of re-alignment?

If such a re-alignment happens, I think what it represents will be a loss of faith in American institutions.

Post-COVID inflation may end up being the straw that breaks the camel's back. But it's hardly alone. America does have problems with over-regulation, wealth inequality (including generational wealth inequality), runaway corporate abuses and regulatory capture, lack of a truly functional medical or judicial system, etc.

Now, I personally don't think Republicans have solutions for any of America's ills. They're the political equivalent of a pyromaniac who wants to deal with the leaky roof and broken plumbing by burning the house down with people inside (and who's being encouraged by the real-estate speculator who'd like to buy the property cheap). America's future under the Republicans would be terrible.

But that doesn't mean that the Democrats have been doing a great job either. Obama did damned little to address the problems many people see with America.  I think Biden has done better, especially given what he has to work with, but its still a hard sell. (A whole generation spent 8 years hoping for some change they never saw, and isn't going to settle for slogans again.)

I think Republicans have contributed to the Democratic Party's own dysfunction (although the responsibility rests with the party and its voters); by becoming the party of terrible people and insane ideas, the GOP removed any pressure for the Democrats to be a party of better ideas and effective follow-through. The Democrats have existed for decades on the strength of "being better than the orcs". But that's a pretty damned low bar, and they suffered for it in 2016, and may suffer for it again this year.


If the GOP wins a solid victory, Republicans will take it as a ratification of all their worse impulses. And it will be, from many of their reliable voters. But the people who can hand them a victory will not be any happier with religious fanaticism and billionaire worship than they were with vague promises and very slow incremental change. Not that I think it will matter, as I expect a GOP trifecta - should they get one - to destroy the Constitution and America.

[cherry mandarin]

No one of who is running (or did run in the primaries) is capable of uniting the nation right now.

FTFY.

[Burke Bro]

I’m relatively certain that it won’t be resolved by either Biden or Trump. If Haley or DeSantis won the Republican primary in 2024, I think we’d be having a much different discussion.

And you think either of them could solve the problem? They would be way in over their heads, as extremely decisive figures without any semblance of a dedicated base filled with rabid supporters.

Perhaps you’re right. Both of them are still very much in the mold of what we traditionally think of as a Republican president. Both could’ve won in a landslide against Biden, only to immediately lose their mandates to circumstance and inability to distinguish themselves from the old guard. Thinking of Herbert Hoover.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

No one of who is running (or did run in the primaries) is capable of uniting the nation right now.

FTFY.

Well at a certain point even that'll end but it won't be this year.

[DaleCooper]

There is absolutely no reason whatsoever to believe that young people suddenly love Republicans. There will be lower turnout compared to 2020 so we'll see how that affects the results, but a right-wing Gen Z is just a pathetic, embarrassing masturbatory fantasy for Republicans.

[cherry mandarin]

Both could’ve won in a landslide against Biden

I highly doubt that.

and then immediately lose their mandates to circumstance and their inability to distinguish themselves from the old guard.

Just like Biden himself! The same thing could've been said for him heading into the pandemic election of 2020. In fact, come to think of it now, that application would still hold true in an eerily similar fashion.

There is absolutely no reason whatsoever to believe that young people suddenly love Republicans. A right-wing Gen Z is just a pathetic, embarrassing masturbatory fantasy for Republicans.

Of course it'd be hugely unprecedented for Trump to win this cohort outright in November, but at this point I'm pretty confident he'll make at least some gains with them.

[DaleCooper]

There is absolutely no reason whatsoever to believe that young people suddenly love Republicans. A right-wing Gen Z is just a pathetic, embarrassing masturbatory fantasy for Republicans.

Of course it'd be hugely unprecedented for Trump to win this cohort outright in November, but at this point I'm pretty confident he'll make at least some gains with them.

That wouldn't be a realignment.

[cherry mandarin]

That wouldn't be a realignment.

Considering Biden won the 18-29 age group by a more than 2 to 1 ratio in 2020, it certainly could be. When I talk about a "re-alignment", I'm mainly referring to a substantial number of demographic groups witnessing significantly larger shifts over the course of a single election than the historical norm would suggest. In this era of hyper-partisanship and extreme polarization, that means it doesn't take drastic, thirty-point net swings or whatnot in order for an election to be classified as a "re-alignment" according to this definition.

[Burke Bro]

I can also see a different and much darker scenario where Trump wins in 2024 but doesn’t have the popular support and large majorities in Congress to have much of an effect on national policy. So acting on his worse impulses, he turns the presidency into a dictatorship. He then gets assassinated a la Julius Caesar (because that’s what happens to dictators who don’t have strong institutional support), becomes a martyr, the country descends into violence, and in his place rises a new authoritarian leader who represents the realignment.

[SnowLabrador]

Gaza.

[RI]

This is the first presidential election with a majorly unpopular Democratic incumbent since the last realigning election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is the first presidential election with a majorly unpopular Democratic incumbent since the last realigning election.

But, Rs can't beat Biden the Rs lost in 2008/12/20722 under VP Biden and Pres Biden

Trump was unpopular too

[Open Source Intelligence]

Say the polls are right - non-white voters across the board swing 20%+ right, age polarization vanishes or possibly even inverts, and so on

Why would this election specifically be such a large re-aligning election? Both the candidates are the same form the last election. Neither’s messaging has changed significantly.

Well, Biden has been President for 3.5 years. "Neither's messaging has changed significantly", yet the issues important to and facing the electorate have clearly changed.

[Yelnoc]

The only thing I can think of is backlash to covid-era restrictions which the electorate associated with Biden and the Democratic Party. Which makes some amount of sense given that backlash did cut across racial categories.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

It will not be, looking at the last 30 years, elections with incumbents have not been re-aligning election.

Biden and Trump are very well known, there isn’t much room for massive swings.