Exurban Trends
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Author Topic: Exurban Trends  (Read 2461 times)
Jaggerjack
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« on: July 04, 2007, 10:19:08 AM »

I've noticed that San Joaquin/Stanislaus took huge swings to the Republicans from 2000-2004. They're exurbs of the Silicon Valley.

So, is it like the suburbs trend Democratic while exurbs explode in population and trend Republican?
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bgwah
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« Reply #1 on: July 04, 2007, 02:18:06 PM »

Yes. Older built up areas (older suburbs and cities) go Democratic while newer built up/building up areas (newer suburbs and exurbs) go Republican.
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Verily
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« Reply #2 on: July 04, 2007, 09:37:12 PM »

Of course, that isn't always true. NOVA and the Denver suburbs are clear counterexamples where rapid urban expansion is liberal rather than conservative. I have a feeling that it has to do more with how wealthy the newly built areas are. Nearly all new development in California is built by the very wealthy while the middle and lower classes slowly spread outward from the cities into areas vacated by the rich. This is not the case everywhere else, which may be due to higher concentrations of wealth in California than elsewhere. I'm sort of guessing here, but the cases of NOVA and Denver certainly don't corroborate the theory of conservative new developments.
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Jaggerjack
Fabian_the_Fastman
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« Reply #3 on: July 04, 2007, 09:52:18 PM »

Cool. I see.

Eh, did you have to mention Denver? xD Now Rawlings is gonna come and bomb this topic...
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Smash255
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« Reply #4 on: July 05, 2007, 12:53:25 AM »

Of course, that isn't always true. NOVA and the Denver suburbs are clear counterexamples where rapid urban expansion is liberal rather than conservative. I have a feeling that it has to do more with how wealthy the newly built areas are. Nearly all new development in California is built by the very wealthy while the middle and lower classes slowly spread outward from the cities into areas vacated by the rich. This is not the case everywhere else, which may be due to higher concentrations of wealth in California than elsewhere. I'm sort of guessing here, but the cases of NOVA and Denver certainly don't corroborate the theory of conservative new developments.

Denver is a bit different from NOVA.  NOVA even the exurban areas are moving very quickly to the left (Loudon, Prince William).  The Denver exurban areas such as Douglas and Weld remain very Republican.  With that being said unlike many exurban areas they haven't become more Republican as they have grown, if you look at the margins (compared to national) they have become a little more Democratic, though the amount vote total margins have helped the GOP.  However, what is happening in Denver is those older suburbs Jefferson &, Araphaoe for example are STRONGLY moving Democratic.  Boulder which has always been liberal has gotten MUCH more liberal than it even use to be.
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Alcon
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« Reply #5 on: July 05, 2007, 02:32:03 AM »

Arapahoe and Jefferson are mostly not exurban, though.  And they have that weird suburban city thing going on.
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Jaggerjack
Fabian_the_Fastman
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« Reply #6 on: July 05, 2007, 07:49:47 AM »

Arapahoe and Jefferson are mostly not exurban, though.  And they have that weird suburban city thing going on.
I wouldn't even consider those two exurban. I mean, they're like right there next to Denver.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #7 on: July 06, 2007, 10:43:53 AM »

Of course, that isn't always true. NOVA and the Denver suburbs are clear counterexamples where rapid urban expansion is liberal rather than conservative. I have a feeling that it has to do more with how wealthy the newly built areas are. Nearly all new development in California is built by the very wealthy while the middle and lower classes slowly spread outward from the cities into areas vacated by the rich. This is not the case everywhere else, which may be due to higher concentrations of wealth in California than elsewhere. I'm sort of guessing here, but the cases of NOVA and Denver certainly don't corroborate the theory of conservative new developments.
Denver is a bit different from NOVA.  NOVA even the exurban areas are moving very quickly to the left (Loudon, Prince William).  The Denver exurban areas such as Douglas and Weld remain very Republican.  With that being said unlike many exurban areas they haven't become more Republican as they have grown, if you look at the margins (compared to national) they have become a little more Democratic, though the amount vote total margins have helped the GOP.  However, what is happening in Denver is those older suburbs Jefferson &, Araphaoe for example are STRONGLY moving Democratic.  Boulder which has always been liberal has gotten MUCH more liberal than it even use to be.
The city and county of Denver are coterminous, which means that Denver county is smaller than many urban counties elsewhere, and that there are inner suburbs in other counties that were developed 50 and 60 years ago.

Denver hasn't grown that much.  As I've mentioned before, until 2004 the top voter turnout in Denver was when Mamie Doud Eisenhower's husband was running for President (Mamie Doud was from Denver).  So the trends in Jefferson and Arapahoe county are mainly due to spillover, including minority population from Denver.  While Jefferson County and Arapahoe County are larger, their growth potential is limited.  Most of the open area in Jefferson County is in the foothills which can't be densely developed.  There is no more open space south of Denver in Arapahoe County.  There is unlimited space to the east - however, there is no water except from Aurora.
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opebo
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« Reply #8 on: July 06, 2007, 12:01:44 PM »

People who move way out to the sticks just to avoid the Black Man are very prone to voting that-a-way too.
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Jaggerjack
Fabian_the_Fastman
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« Reply #9 on: July 06, 2007, 12:08:16 PM »

People who move way out to the sticks just to avoid the Black Man are very prone to voting that-a-way too.
It really seems that white flight occurs due to two reasons:
1. Insanely high housing prices
2. General dislike of diversity
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