NJ-Quinnipiac: Rudy slips in Garden State, Toss-Up if Bloomberg runs, Bush @ 21%

[Tender Branson]

2-way General Election matchups:

Clinton vs. Giuliani: 44-47
Clinton vs. McCain: 47-41
Clinton vs. Thompson: 50-37

Obama vs. Giuliani: 40-48
Obama vs. McCain: 44-40
Obama vs. Thompson: 49-32

Gore vs. Giuliani: 44-47
Gore vs. McCain: 48-39
Gore vs. Thompson: 52-34

3-way General Election matchups:

Clinton: 36%
Giuliani: 36%
Bloomberg: 18%

In a Democratic primary matchup, Clinton gets 37 percent, with 18 percent for Gore, 15 percent for Obama and 6 percent for John Edwards.

Giuliani overwhelms the Republican primary field with 46 percent, followed by McCain at 11 percent, Thompson at 9 percent and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 7 percent.
 
New Jersey voters disapprove 74 - 21 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing, the lowest score for any President in more than 10 years of Quinnipiac University polls.

From June 26 - July 2, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,604 New Jersey voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. The survey includes 505 Republicans, with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points, and 575 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1080

[Tender Branson]

Looks like undersampling of Dems by 4% and an oversampling of Republicans by 2%.

Exit polls 2004 and 2006 - Turnout:

D: 39% and 41%
R: 31% and 28%
I: 30% and 31%

This poll:

D: 36%
R: 32%
I: 32%

My Adjusted Figures:

Clinton: 48%
Giuliani: 45%

[Eraserhead]

NJ really likes Al Gore.

[Conan]

NJ really likes Al Gore.

Who doesn't?
Live Earth! Meadowlands!

[Eraserhead]

NJ really likes Al Gore.

Who doesn't?
Live Earth! Meadowlands!

Too bad most of the acts on that Live Earth thing suck.

[Conan]

NJ really likes Al Gore.

Who doesn't?
Live Earth! Meadowlands!

Too bad most of the acts on that Live Earth thing suck.

I know. If I recall correctly, London has the best show.

[Tender Branson]

Looks like undersampling of Dems by 4% and an oversampling of Republicans by 2%.

Exit polls 2004 and 2006 - Turnout:

D: 39% and 41%
R: 31% and 28%
I: 30% and 31%

This poll:

D: 36%
R: 32%
I: 32%

My Adjusted Figures:

Clinton: 48%
Giuliani: 45%

Another indicator, as to why Hillary Clinton is currently ahead of Rudy Giuliani in NJ is the latest NJ Rasmussen poll:

Tuesday, June 12, 2007

Clinton-D: 38%
Giuliani-R: 29%
Bloomberg-I: 21%

Bloomberg normally takes about 55% of Giuliani´s vote and 45% of Clinton´s vote.

If we add Bloomberg's numbers to Giuliani and Clinton in that way, it's:

Clinton: 47-48%
Giuliani: 40-41%

Giuliani needs to win the "Bloomberg vote" of 21% by 15%-6% to achieve a tie with Hillary Clinton and thats absolutely not likely. As far as we know Bloomberg takes about equally from Giuliani and Clinton, if not currently more from Giuliani.