1964 John F Kennedy/Lyndon B Johnson V Barry Goldwater/William E Miller

[Lincoln Republican]

Done before, but has been some time.  Interested to know what current forum members think would happen in this election.

There is no assassination attempt ever made on the life of President Kennedy

Democratic Ticket
President John F Kennedy (MA)
Vice President Lyndon B Johnson (TX)

Republican Ticket
Senator Barry Goldwater (AZ)
Congressman William E Miller (NY)

How does this election turn out?

Maps?

[SPC]

Kennedy wins, unfortunately.

[PBrunsel]

Goldwater/Miller was just not a good ticket. Its weakness was that both were conservatives, thus the Council of Foreign Affairs (CFA), the “liberal Republicans”, which dominated the party since 1936 was not satisfied. Kennedy would have probably been a candidate the CFA members could vote for. He was moderately in favor of Civil Rights, working with the Soviets, and, most importantly, would be seen as a “moderate” compared to Goldwater.

The election would have had debates, where Goldwater could try to “sell” his conservative ideals, but Kennedy was a master of television appearances. I see a closer election than the real life 1964, but the cry of “All the way with JFK” would trounce “IN your heart you know he’s right.”

 

Kennedy/Johnson (D): 432
Goldwater/Miller (R): 106

[johnpressman]

Barry would not have picked Miller.  He picked him because he "gets under Johnson's skin".  Who else would Barry have picked if he ran, as planned, against JFK? 


No, Kennedy would not have dropped Johnson, which poses another scenario:  Kennedy's health was pretty bad,  especially his cholesterol.  He was literally a walking heart attack.  What happens if LBJ succeeds to the Presidency later, around 1967 with Vietnam raging?

[johnpressman]

Another myth.  There has never been any significant indication that JFK would have removed US troops from Vietnam had he lived.  The idea of the United States' not living up to a commitment to an ally and letting that country intentionally fall to the communists was unthinkable to a cold warrior like JFK.  Read his inaugural speech for instance, it is a call to arms.  Had he let Vietnam down there would have been calls for his impeachment, remember, only TWO Senators voted against the Tonkin Gulf Resolution to EXPAND the war in 1964.

JFK ending the Cold War during his second term would have been a magic trick of epic proportions.  During the brief Kennedy Administration, relations between the US and the Soviet Union were NEVER worse.  The Bay of Pigs Invasion, The Cuban Missle Crisis and the building of the Berlin Wall all took place during the thousand days of the Kennedy Administration.  The conditions that existed almost 30 years later that enabled the Reagan Administration to end the Cold War were unique and a far cry from the confrontations that
marked the early 1960s.

[Lincoln Republican]

Barry would not have picked Miller.  He picked him because he "gets under Johnson's skin".  Who else would Barry have picked if he ran, as planned, against JFK? 


No, Kennedy would not have dropped Johnson, which poses another scenario:  Kennedy's health was pretty bad,  especially his cholesterol.  He was literally a walking heart attack.  What happens if LBJ succeeds to the Presidency later, around 1967 with Vietnam raging?

That's true.  Goldwater believed that Miller could get the best of Johnson, and Humphrey, in the campaign, but that never materialized.

Had Goldwter been running against JFK, as planned, Goldwater may have accepted Governor William Scranton of Pennsylvania as his running mate.  Early in the campaign, Scranton did announce that he would accept the Vice Presidential nomination.  There was a draft Scranton movement in the party, in an effort to stop Goldwater from winning the nomination.

[Lincoln Republican]

Barry would not have picked Miller.  He picked him because he "gets under Johnson's skin".  Who else would Barry have picked if he ran, as planned, against JFK? 


No, Kennedy would not have dropped Johnson, which poses another scenario:  Kennedy's health was pretty bad,  especially his cholesterol.  He was literally a walking heart attack.  What happens if LBJ succeeds to the Presidency later, around 1967 with Vietnam raging?

As for Kennedy and Johnson, it is unlikely that Kennedy would have dropped Johnson in 1964.  This would have caused turmoil and resentment in the Democratic Party, especially from the south.

However, in 1964, Kennedy would have been in a much stronger electoral position than he was in 1960, so if he had really wanted to drop Johnson, as unlikely as this would have been, he could have done it in 1964, and still have won the election handily.  But there really would have been nothing to gain by causing turmoil in the party by dropping Johnson.  

An alternate to Johnson could have been Senator Stuart Symington of Missouri, a choice many thought Kennedy should have made in 1960. 

A more remote possibility would have been Senator Humbert Humphrey of Minnesota, who Kennedy defeated for the nomination. 

A still more remote possibility would have been Secretary of Agriculture Orville Freeman, who was a former two term Governor of Minnesota, who had supported Kennedy for the nomination in 1960 when many in Minnesota were being urged and pressured into supporting Adlai Stevenson, and Freeman was someone who Kennedy thought highly of.         

[Kaine for Senate '18]

 

Kennedy/Johnson (D): 432
Goldwater/Miller (R): 106

The only reason Goldwater won the Southern states was because LBJ pushed for the Civil Rights Act.  No Civil Rights Act=Solid South.

Kennedy/Johnson: 474
Goldwater/Miller: 64

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Another myth.  There has never been any significant indication that JFK would have removed US troops from Vietnam had he lived.  The idea of the United States' not living up to a commitment to an ally and letting that country intentionally fall to the communists was unthinkable to a cold warrior like JFK.  Read his inaugural speech for instance, it is a call to arms.  Had he let Vietnam down there would have been calls for his impeachment, remember, only TWO Senators voted against the Tonkin Gulf Resolution to EXPAND the war in 1964.

JFK ending the Cold War during his second term would have been a magic trick of epic proportions.  During the brief Kennedy Administration, relations between the US and the Soviet Union were NEVER worse.  The Bay of Pigs Invasion, The Cuban Missle Crisis and the building of the Berlin Wall all took place during the thousand days of the Kennedy Administration.  The conditions that existed almost 30 years later that enabled the Reagan Administration to end the Cold War were unique and a far cry from the confrontations that
marked the early 1960s.

Firstly - let's not get into the Tonkin Gulf resolution.

Ok, you consider the Inaguration speech a call to arms... then what of the American University speech of June 1963? (his greatest imho) I believe evidence showed that Kennedy's stance was shifting - he was a cold warrior, but I think the bay of pigs, CMC showed him the REALITY of the situation he faced.
- Bay of Pigs was an Eisenhower plan Kennedy followed through on, and it is well documented, regretted ever doing.
- Cuban Missile Crisis was in essence a creation of the first tactical error in regards to Cuba
- The building of the Berlin Wall took place in August of 1961 after Kennedy had been railroaded in Vienna. The building had NOTHING to do with Kennedy, it was the fear of East Germans and their Soviet masters about the almost complete evacuation of the professional classes into the West.

In Sept. 1963 he regarded the Vietnam conflict as a Vietnamese conflict. Yes he sent advisors, but he was going to pull many many out. I saw an interview with the late Hugh Sidey who believed that Kennedy was going to lower total numbers in Vietnam, but make no clear stance either way until after the '64 election.

I agree to a point- US/Soviet relations hit their worst strides under Kennedy. However lets not forget the positives especially after Oct. 1962 - the Moscow hotline and the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.