My 2008 Prediction.....What's Yours?

[wdecker1]

Clinton wins the nomination, and if the President is still has low ratings in 2008, then the Democrats will win.  Under this scenario I believe Clinton will pick up IA and NM, which went with Gore in 2000 and was barely won by Bush in 2004.  I believe she will pick up MO and OH b/c they tend to follow national trends.  If VA continues it trend toward the Dems, then she can pick up that state.  She will pick up AR b/c the Clintons are still popular there, the Dems still have a stronghold over the state, and Kerry got 45% there, by far his best showing in the Deep South, excluding FL.  FL will go to Clinton based on it being a moderate state.  CO seems to be trending Dem with the Dems winning the Senate in 04 and the Gov's seat in 06, so she will pick up that.  The other state she will pick up is NV, which Kerry lost by just a couple of points.  However, she will not pick up WV b/c it has trended too far to the GOP (Kerry lost by over 10 points there).  The same with Louisania.  As for Kentucky she has a chance.  Even though Kerry lost close to 20 points there, Bill won the state in 92 and 96.  Further, the Dems are gaining ground w/in the state b/c the current GOP Gov is polling very bad and will likely lose the election this year, and McConnell is not polling well in his bid for reelection in 08.