Senate Prediction 2008

[Rawlings]

Marquee Races:
CO: Schaffer def. Udall 50-49
IO: Harkin def. King 51-48
LA: Kennedy def. Landrieu 53-47*
ME: Collins def. Allen 49-45
MT: Racicot def. Baucus 50.1-49.9
NE: Bruening def. Fahey 53-46
NH: Sweet def. Sununu 51-48*
OR: Smith def. Westlund 50-48
SD: Rounds def. Daschle 49-48*
VA: Davis def. Moran 51-48

Competitive Races:
AK: Stevens def. Eric Berkowitz 55-40
MN: Coleman def. Franken 52-42
NJ: Lautenberg def. Kean Jr. 54-45

I agree with everything except for Oregon.  I think Gordie is toast!

[Rawlings]

I agree with everything except for Oregon.  I think Gordie is toast!

"Gordie" is toast even though he faces no major opposition as of yet and Colorado is staying GOP? Ok.

Don't forget the kind of person Rawlings is

That doesn't make any sense.  At least until Gordie gets an opponent who is not some tier above third...

Rawlings thinks Colorado is a Republican state like South Carolina or Utah, no matter what and he'd be willing to put anything ahead of his beloved home state going Democratic. That's what I was getting at.

Oh please, Fabian!  Colorado is much more conservative than Oregon and Smith has a lost a lot of his base in rural Oregon because of his stances on the war.  It's a miracle that Gordie even got re-elected in the first place in uber-liberal Oregon.

Colorado is an entirely different state.  It has a GOP registration advantage, is a consistently red state for POTUS, and will have Schaffer replacing the Senate's most conservative voting member (Allard).  It ain't Utah...but neither is it Oregon or your homestate.

[Rawlings]

I agree with everything except for Oregon.  I think Gordie is toast!

"Gordie" is toast even though he faces no major opposition as of yet and Colorado is staying GOP? Ok.

Don't forget the kind of person Rawlings is

That doesn't make any sense.  At least until Gordie gets an opponent who is not some tier above third...

Rawlings thinks Colorado is a Republican state like South Carolina or Utah, no matter what and he'd be willing to put anything ahead of his beloved home state going Democratic. That's what I was getting at.

Oh please, Fabian!  Colorado is much more conservative than Oregon and Smith has a lost a lot of his base in rural Oregon because of his stances on the war.  It's a miracle that Gordie even got re-elected in the first place in uber-liberal Oregon.

Colorado is an entirely different state.  It has a GOP registration advantage, is a consistently red state for POTUS, and will have Schaffer replacing the Senate's most conservative voting member (Allard).  It ain't Utah...but neither is it Oregon or your homestate.

1. Stop calling him Gordie. I mean, what the hell?
2. Stop flaunting the fact that Republicans has a narrow edge over Democrats in voter registration. Oklahoma has more reigstered Democrats than Republicans. Voter registration stats don't matter, it's the unaffiliated who decide.
3. Oregon and Colorado are not as far apart as you're making it seem. Yes, Oregon is obviously more liberal but Oregon didn't even go 52% for Kerry while Colorado didn't even go 52% for Bush.
4. Allard is the most conservastive senate member? What are you basing this on? Regardless, Allard is not popular in Colorado so that's nothing to be proud of.

1.  You're kind of a whiner.
2. You don't think registration advantages matter?  Just because it doesn't work in your favor doesn't  mean it's not important.
3. I've lived in both.  Trust me.  They are VERY different.  The GOP always comes close in Oregon but the state is too solidly blue to turn.  I think Colorado is a parallel example for the GOP.  It's like turning the Titanic around.
4. Allard was re-elected.  You may not like him, but the people of Colorado obviously do.  And, by the way, he was rated most conservative member based upon his voting record by some group about a year ago. 

[Rawlings]

Rawlings kind of sounds like the Republican equivalent to Colorado to me on Minnesota.

Although despite my obvious biases, his arguments mostly boil down to "Colorado is conservative, end of story", while mine were pointing out how very deeply flawed the points about Minnesota "trending Republican" were.

No.  I've given plenty of reasons.  I think the Democratic bench is obviously empty in Colorado.  The Democrats trotted out two wonderful, centrist candidates for Senate and governor and they both won against weak opponents. I don't see how that's exactly a "blude tide."

Listen, Salazar is a lot like Ben Nighthorse Campbell and Ritter is a pro-life, ex-missionary.  Those two are tailor-made for Colorado.

Also, how can you underestimate the impact of funding for the Democrats?  They bought the election last year!  Tim Gill and Pat Stryker realized that the people of Colorado wouldn't vote for their gay rights agenda and so they tried to buy it through the state government.  Last year Coloradans unexpectedly voted against gay civil unions (hardly the grist for a left-moving state, yes?).  Gill and Stryker thought they could buy that vote too (they outspent Focus on the Family 5:1).  When you give Colorado the vote, we don't vote liberal.

Finally, what I see is a wealthier, more centrist Democratic Party in Colorado that is capitalizing on Republican silliness here and in Washington.  What I don't see is any movement to the left.  Colorado voted for a pro-life, pro-business governor at the same time it voted against gay unions and for traditinoal marriage.  That's just what Colorado does.

Match the money or take away the Democrats' centrism and you have what you had in the early part of the decade: GOP dominance.  And, frankly, that's the dynamic shaping up in 2008.  Mark Udall is not a Salazar or a Ritter.  He is considerably to the left of those two and his is considerably to the left of the state, generally.  And Bob Schaffer is doing fine with fundraising and there will be more than enough money pouring into the state--for both sides.  When you put a conservative up against a liberal in Colorado, (Kerry/Bush, Strickland/Allard x 2, Owens/Schoettler, etc), the conservative wins every time.  I'm only expecting the status quo in expecting Schaffer to win.