What are the options for dealing with North Korea

[theman9235]

North Korea sits in the heart of northeast Asia amid some of the world's biggest and fastest growing economies, which are alarmed by the prospect of war or the collapse of an impoverished regime. Further, The Korean nuclear standoff has become a high-stakes, no-bluff game, where the threats are potentially greater than those posed by Iraq. And led by dictator Kim Jong Il, and hailing a million-man army, the North is believed by the United States to have at least one nuclear weapon, an extensive chemical weapons stockpile and a biological arsenal.
We could either hand out aid and provide security resurances if NK dismantles its nuclear program. However, NK always seem to violate this deal and thus, somehow blame the US for not following its obligations. Second, is military strike; But this could trigger a full-scale war with missile attacks, radioactive fallout, economic turmoil (which Japan, China, and Korea will try to stop), and US troops in Japan and Korea will be nuclear hostages. BUt this is again highly unlikely. Industrial countries are not going to risk international trade and their economy for the catch.

Then there is the starving Kim Jong Ill's regime of money, slapping sanctions and embargoes on the grounds that North Korea is an outlaw of the nonproliferation threaty deal. Block the country's hard cash from illicit trade and cut off food aid.

Bilateral talks, 6 party (more practical method), what?

There could be a bargaining of power to get attention, money, food and fuel from outside--playing them off. Wait for the regime to collapse, the conditional introduction of inspectors and international safeguards...?

what are your opinions...lay it out

[opebo]

Pull out of South Korea.

[adam]

I have lost patience with North Korea, in all honesty. We have tried negotiating, we have tried diplomacy, we have tried just about everything peaceful to convince Kim Jong Il to dismantle his nuclear arms program...so far, every attempt has failed. It looks like a military strike is the only thing we have left on the table.

[minionofmidas]

North Korea sits in the heart of northeast Asia amid some of the world's biggest and fastest growing economies, which are alarmed by the prospect of war or the collapse of an impoverished regime.

The Chinese and South Koreans are more alarmed by the US and Japanese stance than by the North Korean wackos themselves, actually.

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LOL! No-bluff is probably *the single* word in the English dictionary to be least appropriate in a discussion of the North Korean nuclear program.

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Not that that's hard, but yes, this is accurate.

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Well, the thing they fired recently certainly wasn't one. It's possible that the North Koreans have somehow invented that elusive thing, the nuclear handheld grenade, I'm withholding judgement on that. But more likely is that it was just some plastic explosives.

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Huh? There was such a deal once?

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Would. Involving China.

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Well, that's the policy of the last 15 years. Or really the West's policy since the end of the Korean War.

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Unfortunately, the regime shows no sign of collapsing, although the former "Communist" economy has collapsed completely quite a while back.

The South Koreans and the Chinese are essentially buying up the country on the sly. Just wait another decade or two, reunification will come. A reduction of US troops in South Korea would probably be extremely helpful, but a pullout is by no means required.

[theman9235]

North Korea sits in the heart of northeast Asia amid some of the world's biggest and fastest growing economies, which are alarmed by the prospect of war or the collapse of an impoverished regime.

The Chinese and South Koreans are more alarmed by the US and Japanese stance than by the North Korean wackos themselves, actually.

POST WAR---
By preluding, the suuspension of the money flow will definately deliver a staggering blow to the North’s battered economy as we've seen months before, which depends on China and South Korea for food and fuel following the 1994-2000 famine that reportedly killed up to 2 million people – but even more crippling will be imposition of military blockade by the US. In the worst-case scenario, such a blockade, by adding military pressure over food shortage, could shake the regime’s foundation. China is reportedly petrified by the prospects of millions of hungry North Koreans flooding into its territory in the event of regime collapse or other forms of instability. Beijing could be exaggerating this danger, but there’s no denying that an unstable Pyongyang is the last crisis China wants along its 1400-km border with North Korea.
A reunification of the peninsula under the South’s control has never been China’s option, given the North’s role as a buffer against Japan and the US. However, China will be the key for any meaningful sanctions regrime to passed. All they have to do is top the oil supply and then its pretty such over for NK. And then Kim alledgely apologizes.
Since this regime isnt a economic basket case, its neighbors are more alarmed by its economic fallout than they are by its military might, as they will have to deal with the economic and social fallout of any caliber. Military spendings eats up most the their resources. ---AND im talking in the advent of a war, not if US or whatever should pose a bigger threat to some sort of invisible peace. Besides, it would be a devastating alarm for South and China since they are the North's second largest trading partner and aid donor. If for instance Pyongyang regime were to collapse, then millions of refugees would be a threat as equal to a war.
Japs, fearing it would be a target if the NOrth ever armed its missiles with WMD, is pressing for harder line and are trying to step of its efforts to establish a missile defense shield with the US. The last thing they want is a nuclear arms race.
So the Asian countries will do anything to try to avoid a situation that would lead to instability in NK.


 

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LOL! No-bluff is probably *the single* word in the English dictionary to be least appropriate in a discussion of the North Korean nuclear program.
sure lol

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Not that that's hard, but yes, this is accurate.
and...

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Well, the thing they fired recently certainly wasn't one. It's possible that the North Koreans have somehow invented that elusive thing, the nuclear handheld grenade, I'm withholding judgement on that. But more likely is that it was just some plastic explosives.

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Huh? There was such a deal once?

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Would. Involving China.
Japan and US will be the head players in this.

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Well, that's the policy of the last 15 years. Or really the West's policy since the end of the Korean War.
yes and...NK freaks out everytime

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Unfortunately, the regime shows no sign of collapsing, although the former "Communist" economy has collapsed completely quite a while back.

The South Koreans and the Chinese are essentially buying up the country on the sly. Just wait another decade or two, reunification will come. A reduction of US troops in South Korea would probably be extremely helpful, but a pullout is by no means required.

right...

[minionofmidas]

but even more crippling will be imposition of military blockade by the US. In the worst-case scenario, such a blockade, by adding military pressure over food shortage, could shake the regime’s foundation. China is reportedly petrified by the prospects of millions of hungry North Koreans flooding into its territory in the event of regime collapse or other forms of instability.

Oh, absolutely. Thing is, this could only be caused by the US and Japanese. (as your author says, btw.)

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Certainly not. And it#s obviously not going to be while the South is under heavy military occupation by the US.

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It's not? Wait... (I think you meant to say "since the regime is an economic basket case...")

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The armistice accord is... how old exactly?
Not sure about this North-South Declaration... I'd have to read up on that... but nothing else mentioned here would meet my definition of a deal to

hand out aid and provide security resurances if NK dismantles its nuclear program

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Would. Involving China.
Japan and US will be the head players in this. [/quote]You think the Chinese would sit idly by as you move an army to the borders of Heilongjiang?
(Okay, so I guess you were talking of limited air strikes and I was thinking of something more fullscale. In that case, we're probably in agreement.)

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right...


[/quote]It's basically the story of the German reunification... including our own little nasty political-prisoners-for-cash deals... South Koreans are right now building the first ever golf course in North Korea, which of course no North Korean will be able to afford to use except as a Caddie. It's right by the only semi-open border post.

Oh, btw - Welcome to the Forum!

[theman9235]

but even more crippling will be imposition of military blockade by the US. In the worst-case scenario, such a blockade, by adding military pressure over food shortage, could shake the regime’s foundation. China is reportedly petrified by the prospects of millions of hungry North Koreans flooding into its territory in the event of regime collapse or other forms of instability.

Oh, absolutely. Thing is, this could only be caused by the US and Japanese. (as your author says, btw.)

we're debating for the sake of argument right?

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Certainly not. And it#s obviously not going to be while the South is under heavy military occupation by the US.
In June 2000, what was that meeting..o yeah the two leaders held a summit meeting. And why would a reunification be unlikely because of the US military occupation? Besides the US wants to redeploy at least 37,000 U.S. troops stationed to Iraq. And yes i know that the US has been more agressive on its arms build up. 600,000 South Korean and 50,000 American troops highly trained troops will be the first to march.

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The armistice accord is... how old exactly?

Doesnt mean its doesnt count. You wanted details...

Not sure about this North-South Declaration... I'd have to read up on that... but nothing else mentioned here would meet my definition of a deal to

hand out aid and provide security resurances if NK dismantles its nuclear program

want me to go on?

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Would. Involving China.
Japan and US will be the head players in this.

You think the Chinese would sit idly by as you move an army to the borders of Heilongjiang?
(Okay, so I guess you were talking of limited air strikes and I was thinking of something more fullscale. In that case, we're probably in agreement.)
Are we talking about the Chinese having a greater interest in North Korea’s geography or specifically if a war were to errupt. Besides, the chinese are more than likely to want a general peaceful rise. It would not be able to stabilize its goals of economic and developmental modernization. Further, I believe that the Chinese are willing to sacrifice war to secure in place the more pragmatic politics of detente and reform. It in effect would decrease the danger of N-S military tension, improve NK economic revival and untimately lower the chances of economic collapse. But if we're talking full-scale war which country is going to locate the North Korean Nuclea Facilities, which country will possess the aptitude or the capability to destroy NK NUC FAC, which will control their retaliation? Just because we have the word "war" dosent mean like it was during the first korean war. Its all about destroying NK's ability to produce the ability to process plutonium for nucs.  If you could inform me on this section..it would be cool. But common sense tells me US, Japs SK will be the major players.

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We'll wait and see...


[/quote]It's basically the story of the German reunification... including our own little nasty political-prisoners-for-cash deals... South Koreans are right now building the first ever golf course in North Korea, which of course no North Korean will be able to afford to use except as a Caddie. It's right by the only semi-open border post.
haha

Oh, btw - Welcome to the Forum!
[/quote]
Thanks--
Peace

[Michael Z]

The South Koreans should do what Willy Brandt did in East Germany, start a dialogue, make them engage with their neighbours, create a dialogue that makes them realise that we're not all bad... except, oops, they did, until that idiot George Walker Bush got involved with his Axis Of Evil speech, and et voila, nuclear weapons in NK.

In the 2000 Olympics both Koreas competed under a single flag, which would have been unthinkable even in 1999, and is definitely unthinkable now.

[Michael Z]

The South Koreans should do what Brandt did in East Germany, start a dialogue, make them engage with their neighbours, start a dialogue that makes them realise that we're not all bad... except, oops, they did until that idiot Bush got involved with his Axis Of Evil speech, and et voila, nuclear weapons in NK.

Mike, do you really think calling those evil people evil changed anything for the worse?

NK was developing nuclear weapons before Bush was president, violating an agreement they made with Clinton while he ignored it and passed the problem on.

Do you really think they need to know we're not all bad?  They know that; they need to know they can't attack us with impunity.

It reminds me of a story I heard about a man (I forget who) who was going to meet Nikita Khrushchev back in the 1950s.  To prepare for the meeting, he went to see Sec. of State John Foster Dulles, and in speaking with Dulles, he said, "I need to find a way to convince Khrushchev that we want peace."  Dulles said, "I disagree completely.  He knows we want peace.  We have to convince him that he can't win a war."

We have the same situation with NK.  We westerners tend to think sometimes that if we can only convince people of our good intentions, all will be well.  But these people take that as a sign of weakness.

As I said earlier, I don't NK as primarily a US problem, and I don't think anything Bush has done could impede a productive dialogue between SK and NK if the conditions were ripe for it.  In fact, such a dialogue has been going on, but the results are limited because the NK dictator is a lunatic.  Can't blame Pres. Bush for that one, Mike.

NK only started arming itself properly with- and testing nukes once they realised that all the diplomatic avenues had been exhausted, because Bush wasn't willing to engage in diplomacy or realpolitik. Iraq actually made them think that WMDs were the only way to avoid an American invasion. No country on Earth is deluded enough to think it could win a war with the United States, including a regime as nutty as Pyongyang.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The most desirable option would have been upon Kim Il Song's death to try and persuade the new regime to adopt neo-liberal measures (which the current North Korean regime would certainly benefit massively from in terms of protection.)

Of course thanks to stuff extremely dumb diplomatic measures by both the Clinton and the Bush Admins; many of whom still think they must fight what remains of the Cold War (why else is there STILL a blockade on Cuba?) this is now off the table; presuming of course that it was ever on.

[MaC]

write-in: Chtuluhu devours North Korean flesh, then they are no longer a threat.

[Reignman]

sanctions/embargos.

[Kevin]

sanctions/embargos.

Just ignore Kim. He is like a child if you ignore him he may eventully may stop pulling stuff.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

Nuke into glass.

[MasterJedi]

Joint US/Chinese strike. Kill entire government and military and then reunite with South Korea while supplying aid to the new united Korea to help rebuild the north out of the stoneage.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Starve them..... errrr.... starve them more in this case.

My European history teacher told us that thier Central Park equiv. was barren and dead because the people ate all the grass and leaves, no joke.