The possible results of 2008 as they stand now

[Kevin]

Here is how the 2008 electoral vote stands right now.

Ohio, Pennsylvania,and Arkansas are too close to call at the current time,As you all very well know this will most likely change as Republican leaning swing states at the moment tighten up and as Democratic leaning swing states may tighten up also.     

[MasterJedi]

Colorado and Nevada are lean Republican swing states (not definite Democratic wins like people here are saying). Pennsylvania and Ohio are Democratic and Arkansas is Republican.

[Person Man]

Depends on who runs. Guliani would make the western swing states harder and the eastern ones easier. Thompson would probably do the opposite.

[Kevin]

Depends on who runs. Guliani would make the western swing states harder and the eastern ones easier. Thompson would probably do the opposite.

You're most likely right,However I think Guliani's moderate Northeastern Republican image may help him in New Jersey and New Hampshire.   

[Person Man]

Hmmm...maybe NH is freaking out about the way and with Sununu running, I don't think much will come of it. New Jersey may already have negative rumors about Guliani and Tom Kean couldn't even win in New Jersey last year and he was at least as moderate as Guliani.

[Kevin]

Hmmm...maybe NH is freaking out about the way and with Sununu running, I don't think much will come of it. New Jersey may already have negative rumors about Guliani and Tom Kean couldn't even win in New Jersey last year and he was at least as moderate as Guliani.

2008 will be a better year for the Republican Party,Although I don't know how much better it will be?

[12th Doctor]

I have a strong feeling that the EV and PV are going to break strongly one way, or strongly the other... not a total blowout, but something somewhere akin to Clinton in 1992.

[Person Man]

Hmmm...maybe NH is freaking out about the way and with Sununu running, I don't think much will come of it. New Jersey may already have negative rumors about Guliani and Tom Kean couldn't even win in New Jersey last year and he was at least as moderate as Guliani.

2008 will be a better year for the Republican Party,Although I don't know how much better it will be?

I'm thinking it will be between 2004 and 2006. 2004 leaned about 3 points to the gop and 2006, about 6 points to the Dems. I would say that this election will be a 51-49 election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IA, NM and PA are democratic swing states, OH is still a tossup and NV and CO are republican swing states.

[memphis]

WV is at best a tossup. I really don't expect it to vote Dem. Also, Missouri should be a tossup, especially if Arkansas is too.

[WalterMitty]

this is more like it.  if anything the map may be a little to generous to the gop.

[Person Man]

I don't think Missouri will be a tossup, maybe in 2006 but not in 2008. 2008 will be a dem year, but not a "wave".

[Kevin]

Keep it this is the way the election would most likely turn out if it where hold today all the gray colored states are too close to call at this time and will most likely flip back and foreward over time.   

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Democrats: 252
Republicans: 192
Tossups: 94

[agcatter]

Louisiana is definitely in the GOP column.  Michigan leans Dem - it's always been fool's gold for Republicans.

[7,052,770]

[Tender Branson]

I wouldn´t be so sure about WV yet, Harry. We only have a no-name poll, which had Clinton ahead of Giuliani, McCain there and Bush won it by a good-enough margin ...

[Kevin]

I wouldn´t be so sure about WV yet, Harry. We only have a no-name poll, which had Clinton ahead of Giuliani, McCain there and Bush won it by a good-enough margin ...

Also remember back in 04 many polls had Kerry being competative in West Virginia,However as we all know in the end that wasn't the case. In addtion I wouldn't cross West Virginia off the map for the Democrats even though it has gone fairly Republican in Presidental elections two times in a row,As things will be more in the Democrats favor in 08 in the state and I can see Hillary having a decent shot at WV against Rudy or Romney but not Thompson,Well it leans Republican against Thompson.       

[Angel of Death]

If one were to take the congressional swing in every state from 2004 to 2006 (averaging House and Senate numbers) and add them to the presidential election result of 2004 how would the electoral map look like?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

If one were to take the congressional swing in every state from 2004 to 2006 (averaging House and Senate numbers) and add them to the presidential election result of 2004 how would the electoral map look like?

Iirc correctly I did this around November (only with the house though) and had the Democrats win the Kerry States, New Mexico, West Virginia, Arkansas, Iowa, Virginia, Ohio, Nevada, Florida and possibly Missouri.. I can't quite remember.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This is based on where things are now.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

How are WV and AR leaning Republican when the only polls out of either have shown the Republican candidates down by a fairly wide margin?

[Jake]

Because polls in August mean little, especially when it's the August 14 months from the election.

[opebo]

Looked at soberly and with a touch of pessimism, this it it:

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Because polls in August mean little, especially when it's the August 14 months from the election.

I'll agree that a poll in say, Iowa that shows a candidate ahead doesn't mean that candidate is very favored to win Iowa. But I'd say leading by a wide margin shows a state is not Republican-leaning, especially when they have never been Republican-leaning states in an election except 2004.