Counties to swing Democratic in both 2000 and 2004 (updated for 2008-2012-2016-2020)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 24, 2024, 12:17:34 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  Counties to swing Democratic in both 2000 and 2004 (updated for 2008-2012-2016-2020)		 « previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Counties to swing Democratic in both 2000 and 2004 (updated for 2008-2012-2016-2020)  (Read 4867 times)
nclib
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,304
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: July 22, 2007, 08:51:53 PM »
« edited: November 20, 2020, 11:04:18 PM by nclib »
Alameda, CA
Contra Costa, CA
Marin, CA
Monterey, CA
San Francisco, CA
San Mateo, CA
Santa Clara, CA
Santa Cruz, CA
Sonoma, CA
Arapahoe, CO
Washington, DC
Leon, FL
Clayton, GA
DeKalb, GA
Marion, IN
Charles, MD
Howard, MD
Montgomery, MD
Prince George's, MD
Noxubee, MS
St. Louis (City), MO
Durham, NC
Multnomah, OR
Delaware, PA
Montgomery, PA
Allendale, SC
Shelby, TN
Arlington, VA
Chesterfield, VA
Fairfax, VA
Fairfax City, VA
Falls Church, VA
Henrico, VA
Martinsville City, VA
Petersburg City, VA
Richmond City, VA
King, WA
San Juan, WA
Dane, WI
Menominee, WI


Comments on these counties? Most of them are at least midsize and are socially liberal. Can anyone with a membership check the 1992-1996 swings to see in any of these counties have swung Democratic three elections in a row.
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,866
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 22, 2007, 09:00:03 PM »
« Edited: July 22, 2007, 09:03:17 PM by Alcon »
1996
Alameda, CA
Contra Costa, CA
Marin, CA
Monterey, CA
San Francisco, CA
San Mateo, CA
Santa Clara, CA
Santa Cruz, CA
Sonoma, CA
Arapahoe, CO
Washington, DC
Leon, FL
Clayton, GA
DeKalb, GA
Marion, IN
Charles, MD
Howard, MD
Montgomery, MD
Prince George's, MD
Noxubee, MS
St. Louis (City), MO
Durham, NC
Multnomah, OR
Delaware, PA
Montgomery, PA
Allendale, SC
Shelby, TN
Arlington, VA
Chesterfield, VA
Fairfax, VA
Fairfax City, VA
Falls Church, VA
Henrico, VA
Martinsville City, VA
Petersburg City, VA
Richmond City, VA
King, WA
San Juan, WA
Dane, WI
Menominee, WI

The only county eliminated in 1992 is Menominee, WI.
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,866
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 22, 2007, 09:18:04 PM »
Eliminated in 1988: Washington, DC, and Marion, IN.

1988
Alameda, CA
Monterey, CA
San Francisco, CA
San Mateo, CA
Santa Clara, CA
Arapahoe, CO
Washington, DC
Leon, FL
Clayton, GA
DeKalb, GA
Marion, IN
Charles, MD
Howard, MD
Montgomery, MD
Prince George's, MD
Noxubee, MS
St. Louis (City), MO
Durham, NC
Multnomah, OR
Delaware, PA
Montgomery, PA
Allendale, SC
Shelby, TN
Fairfax, VA
Henrico, VA
Martinsville City, VA
Petersburg City, VA
Richmond City, VA
King, WA
Dane, WI
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,866
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 22, 2007, 09:23:55 PM »
Eliminated in 1988: Washington, DC, and Marion, IN.

And the non-coasts drop off like rocks:

1984
Alameda, CA
Monterey, CA
San Francisco, CA
San Mateo, CA
Santa Clara, CA
Arapahoe, CO
Leon, FL
Clayton, GA
DeKalb, GA
Howard, MD
Montgomery, MD
Prince George's, MD
Noxubee, MS
St. Louis (City), MO
Durham, NC
Multnomah, OR
Delaware, PA
Montgomery, PA
Allendale, SC
Fairfax, VA
Henrico, VA
Martinsville City, VA
Petersburg City, VA
Richmond City, VA
King, WA
Dane, WI
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,866
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 22, 2007, 09:28:08 PM »
And the semifinals!

1980
Alameda, CA
Monterey, CA
San Francisco, CA
San Mateo, CA
Santa Clara, CA
Montgomery, MD
Prince George's, MD
Multnomah, OR
Fairfax, VA
Petersburg City, VA
King, WA
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,866
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 22, 2007, 09:30:31 PM »
San Francisco, CA, drops off in 1976.

Petersburg drops off in 1972, big time - swung 31.17%.

Multnomah, on the other hand, also drops off, but swinging only 4.45%.

So, while a technical tie goes to the city of Petersburg, Virginia, and Multnomah County, Oregon, Multnomah wins in a tiebreaker.  Wink
Logged
memphis
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,959


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 22, 2007, 10:37:03 PM »
The explanation for Shelby, TN is very simple. Conservative whites moving out, primarily to Desoto, MS. Expect this trend to continue for years to come.
Logged
nclib
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,304
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 22, 2007, 10:37:45 PM »
Good work, Alcon. I'm not surprised about the West Coast counties swinging Dem for so long. But Petersburg, VA intrigues me. I know that it now has a very high black population. (Perhaps its black population has steadily grown the past 30 years?)
Logged
Smash255
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,451


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 23, 2007, 01:26:33 AM »
Nclib are you looking for counties which just strictly swung Dem or counties that trended Dem as well 9which compares the movement to the national average)
Logged
nclib
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,304
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 23, 2007, 05:05:45 PM »
Quote from: Smash255 on July 23, 2007, 01:26:33 AM
Nclib are you looking for counties which just strictly swung Dem or counties that trended Dem as well 9which compares the movement to the national average)

Just the actual swing. The list of counties that trended Dem (compared to the national average) in 2000 and 2004 would be way too long.
Logged
War on Want
Evilmexicandictator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,643
Uzbekistan


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -8.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 24, 2007, 04:02:35 PM »
Well, this proves that Virginia is becoming way more Democratic.
Logged
Kevinstat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,823


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: August 01, 2007, 06:20:13 PM »
Well, I think it more convincingly proves that the city of Petersburg, Virginia has become way more Democratic.  (It might be difficult for it to swing much more Democratic, as Kerry won by 62.3% with 81% of the vote in 2004).
Logged
Small Business Owner of Any Repute
Mr. Moderate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,431
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: August 04, 2007, 05:11:14 PM »
Nothing from New England up in the mix.  Hmm.
Logged
nclib
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,304
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: March 10, 2009, 05:44:07 PM »
As expected, all the above counties swung Democratic in 2008.

As for streaks of swinging GOP, the longest appears to be from 1988. Most are very small, with the only ones over 10,000 votes are Beaver, PA and Jefferson, Orange, Hardin, TX. Beaver is outside Pittsburgh and the three Texas counties all border each other and are part of Beaumont-Port Arthur metro area.
Logged
Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,329
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: March 10, 2009, 05:55:29 PM »
Quote from: Kevinstat on August 01, 2007, 06:20:13 PM
Well, I think it more convincingly proves that the city of Petersburg, Virginia has become way more Democratic.  (It might be difficult for it to swing much more Democratic, as Kerry won by 62.3% with 81% of the vote in 2004).

16.15% swing in 2008 for Petersburg.
Logged
nclib
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,304
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 26, 2012, 11:33:26 AM »
bump--all these counties also swung Dem in 2008. Anyone think any of these will swing towards Romney? Perhaps Petersburg may be maxed out.

Quote from: nclib on July 22, 2007, 08:51:53 PM
Alameda, CA
Contra Costa, CA
Marin, CA
Monterey, CA
San Francisco, CA
San Mateo, CA
Santa Clara, CA
Santa Cruz, CA
Sonoma, CA
Arapahoe, CO
Washington, DC
Leon, FL
Clayton, GA
DeKalb, GA
Marion, IN
Charles, MD
Howard, MD
Montgomery, MD
Prince George's, MD
Noxubee, MS
St. Louis (City), MO
Durham, NC
Multnomah, OR
Delaware, PA
Montgomery, PA
Allendale, SC
Shelby, TN
Arlington, VA
Chesterfield, VA
Fairfax, VA
Fairfax City, VA
Falls Church, VA
Henrico, VA
Martinsville City, VA
Petersburg City, VA
Richmond City, VA
King, WA
San Juan, WA
Dane, WI
Menominee, WI
Logged
nclib
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,304
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: November 19, 2012, 10:18:57 PM »
« Edited: November 19, 2012, 10:21:58 PM by nclib »
bump - of those, the ones swinging to Obama in 2012 are bolded:

Quote from: nclib on July 22, 2007, 08:51:53 PM
Alameda, CA
Contra Costa, CA
Marin, CA
Monterey, CA
San Francisco, CA
San Mateo, CA
Santa Clara, CA
Santa Cruz, CA
Sonoma, CA
Arapahoe, CO
Washington, DC
Leon, FL
Clayton, GA
DeKalb, GA
Marion, IN
Charles, MD
Howard, MD
Montgomery, MD
Prince George's, MD
Noxubee, MS
St. Louis (City), MO
Durham, NC
Multnomah, OR
Delaware, PA
Montgomery, PA
Allendale, SC
Shelby, TN
Arlington, VA
Chesterfield, VA
Fairfax, VA
Fairfax City, VA
Falls Church, VA
Henrico, VA
Martinsville City, VA
Petersburg City, VA
Richmond City, VA
King, WA
San Juan, WA
Dane, WI
Menominee, WI

Comments? It seems most on this list that still swung Obama in 2012 were majority-minority.
Logged
nclib
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,304
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: December 15, 2012, 10:32:14 PM »
Updated - the ones listed that swung to Obama in 2012 are bolded:

Quote from: nclib on July 22, 2007, 08:51:53 PM
Alameda, CA
Contra Costa, CA
Marin, CA
Monterey, CA
San Francisco, CA
San Mateo, CA
Santa Clara, CA
Santa Cruz, CA
Sonoma, CA
Arapahoe, CO
Washington, DC
Leon, FL
Clayton, GA
DeKalb, GA
Marion, IN
Charles, MD
Howard, MD
Montgomery, MD
Prince George's, MD
Noxubee, MS
St. Louis (City), MO
Durham, NC
Multnomah, OR
Delaware, PA
Montgomery, PA
Allendale, SC
Shelby, TN
Arlington, VA
Chesterfield, VA
Fairfax, VA
Fairfax City, VA
Falls Church, VA
Henrico, VA
Martinsville City, VA
Petersburg City, VA
Richmond City, VA
King, WA
San Juan, WA
Dane, WI
Menominee, WI

Comments? It seems most on this list that still swung Obama in 2012 were majority-minority.
Logged
Kevinstat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,823


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: December 22, 2012, 12:08:37 PM »
Quote from: nclib on December 15, 2012, 10:32:14 PM
Updated - the ones listed that swung to Obama in 2012 are bolded:

Quote from: nclib on July 22, 2007, 08:51:53 PM
Alameda, CA
Contra Costa, CA
Marin, CA
Monterey, CA
San Francisco, CA
San Mateo, CA
Santa Clara, CA
Santa Cruz, CA
Sonoma, CA
Arapahoe, CO
Washington, DC
Leon, FL
Clayton, GA
DeKalb, GA
Marion, IN
Charles, MD
Howard, MD
Montgomery, MD
Prince George's, MD
Noxubee, MS
St. Louis (City), MO
Durham, NC
Multnomah, OR
Delaware, PA
Montgomery, PA
Allendale, SC
Shelby, TN
Arlington, VA
Chesterfield, VA
Fairfax, VA
Fairfax City, VA
Falls Church, VA
Henrico, VA
Martinsville City, VA
Petersburg City, VA
Richmond City, VA
King, WA
San Juan, WA
Dane, WI
Menominee, WI

Comments? It seems most on this list that still swung Obama in 2012 were majority-minority.

With Multnomah County, Oregon having just had its streak of Democratic swings broken, Petersburg City, Virginia is now in sole possession of the longest current-running streak of Democratic swings.  The fact that the last swing "the other way" was huge arguably only underscores the impressiveness of the consistent Democratic swings since.
Logged
Kevinstat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,823


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: December 22, 2012, 04:41:12 PM »
Giving the 2012 reduced list the Alcon treatment:

2000 (the boldface names on nclib's last post)
Alameda, CA
San Francisco, CA
Santa Clara, CA
Clayton, GA
Charles, MD
Howard, MD
Prince George's, MD
Noxubee, MS
Durham, NC
Allendale, SC
Petersburg City, VA

No counties eliminated in 1996 or 1992.

1988
Alameda, CA
San Francisco, CA
Santa Clara, CA
Clayton, GA
Charles, MD
Howard, MD
Prince George's, MD
Noxubee, MS
Durham, NC
Allendale, SC
Petersburg City, VA

1984
Alameda, CA
San Francisco, CA
Santa Clara, CA
Clayton, GA
Howard, MD
Prince George's, MD
Noxubee, MS
Durham, NC
Allendale, SC
Petersburg City, VA

1980
Alameda, CA
San Francisco, CA
Santa Clara, CA
Prince George's, MD
Petersburg City, VA

1976
San Francisco, CA
Petersburg City, VA

1972
Petersburg City, VA
Logged
Kevinstat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,823


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: December 22, 2012, 04:45:39 PM »
Someone ought to do the progressively larger lists of counties that have swung Democratic consistently from 2004 on, 2008 on, and 2012 (on).
Logged
nclib
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,304
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: August 12, 2017, 08:49:43 PM »
The following counties swung Democratic in 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012, and the ones that swung Dem in 2016 are bolded:

Alameda, CA
San Francisco, CA
Santa Clara, CA
Clayton, GA
Charles, MD
Howard, MD
Montgomery, MD
Prince George's, MD
Noxubee, MS
Durham, NC
Allendale, SC
Petersburg City, VA

San Francisco now has the longest streak.
Logged
nclib
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,304
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: November 20, 2020, 11:03:58 PM »
« Edited: November 20, 2020, 11:11:08 PM by nclib »
San Fran swung Repub in 2020. The longest streaks are now:

Montgomery, MD - last swung Repub in 1980

Clayton, GA - last swung Repub in 1984
Howard, MD - last swung Repub in 1984
Durham, NC - last swung Repub in 1984
Logged
Alcibiades
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,885
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -6.96

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: November 21, 2020, 04:19:47 AM »
Which counties have the longest trend streak?
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.05 seconds with 12 queries.