Would Kerry beat Bush?

[°Leprechaun]

I still say it is not 100% certain that Kerry is going to be the nominee, but if he is, will he win?

I say YES (but not definately)

[Wakie]

I think we're way too early in the game to pick a winner.  It is worth noting the high voter turnout for the Democratic primaries.  This indicates that the Democratic party is energized.

The questions remain, can they keep this energy?  How energized will the GOP be?  Will there be some huge news story that could swing voters (a capture of Bin Laden, a death of Cheney and appointment of a contraversial VP, a major gaffe by either Bush or the Democratic candidate, etc.)?

This race is just getting started.

[YRABNNRM]

Its too soon to tell but I do believe Bush is beatable unlike some of my Republican friends.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bush is beatable, Kerry is beatable.
It's waaaaaaaay too early to decided.
Kerry isn't even the Dem nominee yet...

[Michael Z]

Realpolitik is right, it's simply too early to tell.

That said, right now Kerry could beat Bush. GWB has had a lot of bad press recently and the whole issue surrounding Iraq's WMD has undoubtedly dented his credibility. But things could look very different in November.

[12th Doctor]

If: 1) Bush runs a bad campaign
     2) The economy slumps again
     3) Irag turns into HELL

... Kerry can beat Bush.  If ALL three of those things don't happen, Kerry still has a shot, but I would say that Bush gets reelected.  Kerry's media darling is going to wear-off, don't forget that.  And Bush still hasn't stepped into the campaign.

[Gustaf]

I voted "too early to tell". I think Bush is the favourite, but it could go either way. My current take is that Bush will get 250-350 EVs, Kerry 190-290 EVs, roughly. Anything lower/higher than that would be preceded by some major change in the war of the economy.

[bejkuy]

I voted "too early to tell". I think Bush is the favourite, but it could go either way. My current take is that Bush will get 250-350 EVs, Kerry 190-290 EVs, roughly. Anything lower/higher than that would be preceded by some major change in the war of the economy.

Boy you're really sticking your neck out Gustaf.

[Gustaf]

I voted "too early to tell". I think Bush is the favourite, but it could go either way. My current take is that Bush will get 250-350 EVs, Kerry 190-290 EVs, roughly. Anything lower/higher than that would be preceded by some major change in the war of the economy.

Boy you're really sticking your neck out Gustaf.

Hey! What do you mean! I was trying to make a not too faulty prediction. I said it was too early to tell! Why don't YOU make a prediction, huh?

[© tweed]

I say Bush will get anywhere from 0-538 EV's, and Kerry anywhere from 0-538 EV's.

Kerry won't beat Bush.

[Nation]

Damn Miami, where the heck do you come from anyway? Delaware? New York? Utah?

[© tweed]

Damn Miami, where the heck do you come from anyway? Delaware? New York? Utah?

New Yawk and proud of it.

[Gustaf]

I say Bush will get anywhere from 0-538 EV's, and Kerry anywhere from 0-538 EV's.

Kerry won't beat Bush.

You think Bush could win D.C.?

[© tweed]

You think Bush could win D.C.?

I was making fun of your prediction.

[Gustaf]

You think Bush could win D.C.?

I was making fun of your prediction.

Yes, it seems like a lot of people are...

[elcorazon]

I voted "too early to tell". I think Bush is the favourite, but it could go either way. My current take is that Bush will get 250-350 EVs, Kerry 190-290 EVs, roughly. Anything lower/higher than that would be preceded by some major change in the war of the economy.

I don't think it's such a bad prediction.  It truly is too soon to tell.  Without knowing more about Kerry's campaign, vp choice, etc. I think that prediction shows where the battle will be, not that most of us didn't already know that, but it's just a longhand and more specific way of saying, too soon to tell.

[Gustaf]

I voted "too early to tell". I think Bush is the favourite, but it could go either way. My current take is that Bush will get 250-350 EVs, Kerry 190-290 EVs, roughly. Anything lower/higher than that would be preceded by some major change in the war of the economy.

I don't think it's such a bad prediction.  It truly is too soon to tell.  Without knowing more about Kerry's campaign, vp choice, etc. I think that prediction shows where the battle will be, not that most of us didn't already know that, but it's just a longhand and more specific way of saying, too soon to tell.

THANK YOU! Finally someone who understands me! That was exactly what I was doing.

[NHPolitico]

Too soon to tell, but it's possible. If the Plame-Wilson scandal heats up and if voters don't think that the administration was fully forthcoming on the various intelligence caveats and if Bush bombs on MTP this Sunday and if jobs don't come back, then yes, Kerry is definitely in this race for real.

[NHPolitico]

Its too soon to tell but I do believe Bush is beatable unlike some of my Republican friends.

Yeah, I agree. Lots of things could happen.  He has a lot of advantages, but Bush could blow it.

[NHPolitico]

Bush is beatable, Kerry is beatable.
It's waaaaaaaay too early to decided.
Kerry isn't even the Dem nominee yet...

You aren't playing by the rules. The media have spoken. Kerry is the nominee. Get with the program!

[NHPolitico]

If: 1) Bush runs a bad campaign
     2) The economy slumps again
     3) Irag turns into HELL

... Kerry can beat Bush.  If ALL three of those things don't happen, Kerry still has a shot, but I would say that Bush gets reelected.  Kerry's media darling is going to wear-off, don't forget that.  And Bush still hasn't stepped into the campaign.

You left out a drop in public trust over WMD intelligence or the Plame-Wilson leak (which may be in the headlines in days).

[PD]

No, I don't think so.

[A18]

He'd lose 51-48. The GOP picks up seats in both houses of Congress.

[Beet]

He'd lose 51-48. The GOP picks up seats in both houses of Congress.

Ewards 2004!

[jokerman]

He'd lose 51-48. The GOP picks up seats in both houses of Congress.

Ewards 2004!

You can get all of the "non" out of your name and signature and stuff now.  The constitution wasn't approved.