It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination

[Lincoln Republican]

It is becoming increasingly clear by now, even in these early days, that Hillary Clinton has a lock on the Democratic Presidential nomination.

Clinton is seen as intelligent, well spoken, experienced, well versed on the issues, has instant name and face recognition, and has celebrity status in her own right.

She is polling well.  She is well liked and admired by rank and file Democrats.

Barack Obama is not catching on.  The Democrats are not about to hand over their Presidential nomination to a Senator in his first term.  Frankly, the electorate, ultimately, would not hand over the Presidency to a Senator in his first term.  Obama is stalled, and has no momentum or traction, and is not likely to gain much. 

The John Edwards campaign is coming apart.  His rhetoric about inequality in America is becoming tiresome to the public.  He spends hundreds of dollars on personal grooming, lives in an $8,000,000 house, and the public is increasingly wondering how he could possibly relate to the poor.  Edwards is faltering and will continue to do so.

Al Gore will not be running.  He would be starting from too far behind, and he realizes that.  He does not want to become involved in a losing candidacy.     

Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, and Christopher Dodd are minor candidates with limited support, limited money, and will have little impact on the outcome.  Their campaigns for the nomination will go newhere.

Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel are more or less nuisance candidates.

Thoughts?

[Lincoln Republican]

Given that the primaries are over half a year away, I might bring your attention to predictions that other people made this far out before the 2006 elections.  There is no such thing as a "lock" in politics.

That may be true, and you make a very valid point, however, I have a strong feeling that this Democratic race is different from any in history.  I believe it will be over before too long into the process.

[Lincoln Republican]

That may be true, and you make a very valid point, however, I have a strong feeling that this Democratic race is different from any in history.  I believe it will be over before too long into the process.

Indeed. The groundswell for a blue revoloution has just begun. I predict the biggest landslide since 1964.
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Thank you for your comment, and welcome to the forum.

[Lincoln Republican]

Given that the primaries are over half a year away, I might bring your attention to predictions that other people made this far out before the 2006 elections.  There is no such thing as a "lock" in politics.

That may be true, and you make a very valid point, however, I have a strong feeling that this Democratic race is different from any in history.  I believe it will be over before too long into the process.

You should read my generic predictions:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=54364.0

During every single election cycle, there are people who make bold predictions, and then when critics point out past elections when everyone's predictions turned out wrong, the predictor will respond by saying "Yeah, but this time is different."  Every single time, there are people who say that.  But the incorrect predictions keep on coming.

Thank you.  Excellent post.

My prediction is that Hillary Clinton will wrap up the nomination early on in the process.  I believe circumstances for the Democrats in 2008 are quite unique from previous campaigns.  If I am wrong, I will simply say I was wrong, clear and simple, no ifs, ands, or buts, no excuses.

Of course incorrect predictions will keep on coming.  There is nothing wrong in making predictions, at whatever stage, as long as the one making the prediction is willing to accept responsibility for their own incorrect prediction, if it is incorrect, without making any excuses.

[Lincoln Republican]

Thank you for dragging this out from storage.

Clearly, my analysis was wrong at the time.

Needless to say, I have had to rethink my position in this case.

It has become clear now that the race for the Democtratic nomination is now a two person race, Obama and Clinton.

I do not believe that Edwards has the staying power or the money to continue in the long term.