It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination

[gorkay]

I wouldn't say anyone has a lock since no one has even voted yet, but she's definitely way ahead. Only two of her competitors, Obama and Edwards, have a chance to catch her, and their campaigns have both gone backwards, while Clinton has improved her standing. So I don't know who's going to catch her. There are some other good candidates, but they have absolutely no chance, especially with the front-loaded nomination process (which increases Hillary's chance of stampeding to the nomination; if the same rules had applied in 2004, Dean probably would have won). The only candidate who would have a chance against her is Al Gore, and I don't think he's going to run. I think he would have gotten into the race by now if he intended to. The one thing Hillary has to watch out for is if all the anyone-but-her voters coalesce around one of the other candidates, not because they think he's a better candidate but because it's the only chance they have of stopping her. But again, the front-loading of the process will make that more difficult.

I think her chances will improve if it looks like the GOP will nominate a conservative (read Thompson). That might make some Democrats more comfortable with her, as it may lead them to believe that any Democrat will win in 2008. If the Republicans go for Giuliani or Romney, it might give the anti-Hillary Republicans more ammunition. But if she grabs the delegates before anyone else has a chance to, it won't matter.