Rockefeller V Carter 1976

[Lincoln Republican]

Sequence of events

President Richard M Nixon resigns the Presidency in disgrace on August 19, 1974.

Vice President Gerald Ford is sworn in as the new President the same day. 

President Ford nominates former New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller in August, 1974 for Vice President, and Rockefeller is sworn in as Vice President on December 19, 1974. 

President Ford announces the pardon of Richard Nixon on September 18, 1974.

President Ford, tragically, dies of a heart attack on October 16, 1975.

Vice President Nelson Rockefeller is sworn in the same day as the new President.

President Rockefeller nominates Kansas Senator Bob Dole for Vice President on October 23, 1975.  Dole wins quick confirmation, and is sworn in as Vice President on November 18, 1975.

President Rockefeller announces he will seek a full term in 1976, is endorsed for the nomination by Vice President Bob Dole, and wins the Republican Presidential nomination handily, easily turning back a determined challenge from former California Governor Ronald Reagan.  Reagan endorses President Rockefeller "wholeheartedly" at the Republican National Convention.

President Rockefeller keeps Vice President Bob Dole on the ticket, a move that pleases the conservative wing of the party, and unifies the party behind the ticket.

The Democrats pick former Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter for President, after a hard fought primary campaign.  Carter picks Senator Walter Mondale of Minnesota for Vice President.

The Tickets

Republican
For President, President Nelson Rockefeller            (Governor of New York 1959-1973)
                                                                                (Vice President Dec 19/74-Oct 16/75)
                                                                                (President since Oct 16/75)

For Vice President, Vice President Bob Dole            (Kansas Senator 1969-1975)
                                                                                (Vice President since Nov 18/75)
                                                                                                                                                 
Democrat
For President, Former Governor Jimmy Carter (Governor of Georgia 1971-1975)

For Vice President, Senator Walter Mondale   (Minnesota Senator since 1964)

How does this election of 1976 go?

Please discuss.

Maps? 

[CPT MikeyMike]

Carter/Mondale: 279
Rockefeller/Dole: 259

Even though Rocky is a million time better than Carter, the voters (after Watergate and Vietnam) want someone as far away from Washington as possible and Carter was that person.

[Lincoln Republican]

Mikey, I like your map, but I am going to give Michigan to Rockefeller.  His brand of Republicanism would play well in a heavy industrialized state like Michigan, similar to his appeal in New York.

President Rockefeller makes a special effort to win Michigan, visiting the state several times, both in the pre election and in the election season.  Rockefeller evokes the memory of deceased President Gerald Ford, a favorite son of Michigan, and has Betty Ford and the Ford family campaign in Michigan extensively in his behalf.  In other words, shamelessly exploiting the memory of President Ford, and shamelessly using Ford's widow and family to win Michigan.  But, it pays off, with Rockefeller winning Michigan by 3%, and thereby winning the election.   

Rockefeller/Dole                    280
Carter/Mondale                     258

A tragic note, President Nelson Rockefeller dies on January 26, 1979, two years after having been sworn in to a four year term.  Vice President Bob Dole is sworn in as President the same day.

Therefore, both of these men, Nelson Rockefeller and Bob Dole, achieve the pinnacle of political power in the nation, the office to which Rockefeller had sought for so long and had fought so hard for, and the office for which Dole had set his sights on since entering the political arena.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Rockefeller/Dole (R) 317 EV
Carter/Mondale (D) 221 EV

With Rockefeller being a Norteastern County Club Republican, I would expect him to carry most states in the New England area except for Massachussets and Rhode Island. I would expect Rockfeller to carry most states parts of America, expect for the South and a few in the Midwest. Them being, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Rockefeller: 278
Carter: 260

I can't see Rockefeller playing well on the left coast, but swinging NY, OH, and PA lets him win anyway.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Nelson Rockefeller looks to capitalize on his moderate views, very similar in the style to Ford and Nixon.  Rockefeller though is a terrible fit for WV as some posters have had him winning.  He campaigns hard in the Northeast and Midwest and that is where he wins the election.

Rockefeller/Dole 290
Carter/Mondale 258

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Rockefeller/Dole: 267
Carter/Mondale: 271

[gorkay]

As strong as the Democratic trend was in 1976, it's tempting to say Rockefeller would win. If he did nothing different than Ford except winning New York, he would win the election, though he still would have probably finished behind Carter in the PV. One thing I have always thought about 1976 was that Carter was one of the weakest candidates the Democrats could have picked (though it didn't seem so at the time), so he may well have lost to Rocky, although most other Democrats would have won.

I'll repeat what I wrote in a similar thread about this election: It would have been ironic if a Rockefeller victory in the EV while finishing second in the PV would have spurred a reform of the presidential-election process and the elimination or modification of the Electoral College-- which would have led, in 2000, to Al Gore being elected president solely on the basis of PV.