Hartlepool by-election... in October or November

[Ben.]

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Ickky. Another bad place for Anti-Gypsy racism is Northern Herefordshire (around Leominster).
That's an issue that'll help the Tories methinks...

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Would you agree that LibDem efforts at retaining Brent and Leicester are going to be slight compared to the attack on marginal Tory seats and suburban Labour marginal... it would make sense for any offensive by the LibDems to take place in that order the LibDems as I have argued stand to make big gains by hitting the conservatives and to a lesser extent Labour in a string of marginal suburban seats… in short the LibDems have to make a choice…

1.)   Do they grow up and attempt to displace the Conservatives as a more Libertarian, Voter Friendly Party of the Right and target these largely suburban marginal… and the noises coming from Liberal Head office seem to suggest this sort of agenda is being pressed on Kennedy by the likes of Oaten and Hughes.

or…

2.)   Do they try and be “all things to all people” and split their resources between holding seats such as Leicester South and Brent East and a launching a weaker offensive against the suburban marginals held by both the Conservatives and Labour, this seems to be what Kennedy would like to do, it seems he is still wedded to the SDP dream of displacing Labour rather than the Conservatives but thankfully he seems to be very much in a minority within the Liberal Leadership.

I think that in the end it would make little sense to adopt the second option and instead I think the Liberals will concentrate on hammering the Conservatives as well as hitting marginal Labour seats, such a strategy offers the greatest potential dividends for the Liberals and by the noises coming from the Liberal Leadership both on the Policy side of things and on the strategy side of things it seems this is what they would like to attempt…        

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I respect Hughes, he has a very high opinion of himself (but then again so do many MPS and Ministers) and is I hear a good constituency MP and I believe would have been a far far better leader than Kennedy and will probably run to replace Kennedy if Charlie decides to retire some time after the 2005/06 contest… certainly that would fit in with this solidification of the Liberals as the “credible party of the right” something that Hughes would be far far more enthusiastic about that, the ex-SDP’er, Kennedy.      

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Would you agree that LibDem efforts at retaining Brent and Leicester are going to be slight compared to the attack on marginal Tory seats and suburban Labour marginal... it would make sense for any offensive by the LibDems to take place in that order the LibDems as I have argued stand to make big gains by hitting the conservatives and to a lesser extent Labour in a string of marginal suburban seats… in short the LibDems have to make a choice…

1.)   Do they grow up and attempt to displace the Conservatives as a more Libertarian, Voter Friendly Party of the Right and target these largely suburban marginal… and the noises coming from Liberal Head office seem to suggest this sort of agenda is being pressed on Kennedy by the likes of Oaten and Hughes.

or…

2.)   Do they try and be “all things to all people” and split their resources between holding seats such as Leicester South and Brent East and a launching a weaker offensive against the suburban marginals held by both the Conservatives and Labour, this seems to be what Kennedy would like to do, it seems he is still wedded to the SDP dream of displacing Labour rather than the Conservatives but thankfully he seems to be very much in a minority within the Liberal Leadership.

The first I think... the old Liberal party has been re-asserting itself for a while...
And there just aren't enough Lib-Lab marginals to go round.

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Yeah... but he gives me the creeps. His seat his frightening... Bermondsey could accurately be described as seething... it feels like it could go off at any moment.
From what I hear, Hughes runs Bermondsey in the way that Boss Tweed ran New York.

[Ben.]

This is just great …Tom Watson in full flow…

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/backbench
   
“Ignoring the existence of the "cab rank rule", whereby barristers take up the first case they're offered, he's dug out the fact that Ms Dunn once represented a heroin addict charged with theft.

"How many other junkies has she made excuses for in court," he demands to know”


…Now this is great, so unfair yet so effective with your average voter and what’s the best the Liberals can come back with…


“the Lib Dems have hit back, accusing Mr Watson of "smear tactics" and asking why he spends so much time away from his Midlands constituency”


…this kid could go far, just deliver Wright a solid majority and I bet he gets a big boost after the election and during the general will be involved up and down the country I could well see him taking a lot of responsibility for Labour campaigns in Brent, Leicester and Chesterfield as well as seats perhaps made vulnerable as a result of the Iraq war…

[Filuwaúrdjan]

“the Lib Dems have hit back, accusing Mr Watson of "smear tactics" and asking why he spends so much time away from his Midlands constituency”

The irony. Don't they usually send all 50 odd LD M.P's to every by-election?

[Ben.]

“the Lib Dems have hit back, accusing Mr Watson of "smear tactics" and asking why he spends so much time away from his Midlands constituency”

The irony. Don't they usually send all 50 odd LD M.P's to every by-election?

Exactly

Then again the poor Tories have to send all their MPs to by-elections becuase most Tory activist can't walk any more.. LOL.

[Ben.]

It appears that the local (labour lead) authorities have decided to lean on the other organs of local government in Hartlepool and the “University Hospitals of North Tees and Hartlepool” will not close.

The issue of the Hospital closure had been shaping up as an important campaign issue in the by-election with every candidate from UKIP to Respect to the LibDems using it as a “stick to hit Labour with”, with varying degrees of success. This is now pretty much a none issue, no doubt the Liberals and the others will try and make some headway on the issue but to be fair it seems rather like its been kicked into the long grass… rather like the Liberal Council in Leicester taking away pensioners bus passes and when it became and election issue reintroducing them and then actually trumpeting the reintroduction in their literature (LOL)… well this is overall good for Labour as the issue is out of the way early and their candidate still seems to have the edge, Gus Robinson has been very quite though.          

[Democratic Hawk]

Iain Wright is the best candidate for Labour and has the local credentials, which still way heavily in the North-East.

I'm from Durham and I've been helping out in Hartlepool. I think Labour will hold the seat with a reduced majority on a substantially low turnout.

Come the General Election, the closest fight in the region will be between Labour and the Lib Dems in the City of Durham (a seat my party has held since 1935; though, it was marginal during the 1980s). Labour came out on top - just - in the recent European Elections by about 500 votes and the Lib Dems gained control of the City Council in 2003.

Dave

[JohnFKennedy]

Iain Wright is the best candidate for Labour and has the local credentials, which still way heavily in the North-East.

I'm from Durham and I've been helping out in Hartlepool. I think Labour will hold the seat with a reduced majority on a substantially low turnout.

Come the General Election, the closest fight in the region will be between Labour and the Lib Dems in the City of Durham (a seat my party has held since 1935; though, it was marginal during the 1980s). Labour came out on top - just - in the recent European Elections by about 500 votes and the Lib Dems gained control of the City Council in 2003.

Dave

I believe Al is also from Durham or thereabouts.

[Ben.]

Iain Wright is the best candidate for Labour and has the local credentials, which still way heavily in the North-East.

I'm from Durham and I've been helping out in Hartlepool. I think Labour will hold the seat with a reduced majority on a substantially low turnout.

Come the General Election, the closest fight in the region will be between Labour and the Lib Dems in the City of Durham (a seat my party has held since 1935; though, it was marginal during the 1980s). Labour came out on top - just - in the recent European Elections by about 500 votes and the Lib Dems gained control of the City Council in 2003.

Dave

Welcome LucysBeau, I'm a yank with family in the UK and will be studying there from September onwards I helped out in Leicester South and have a great many friends involved with the Labour Party... that said I think I may have trouble in keeping up with this site from now to Christmas, but I'll try and stay tuned

I may pop up to Hartlepool if I get a chance to help out, but I agree, turnout at say 35% with a Labour win of between 800 and 1,500 votes with the LibDems in second and UKIP, Gus Robinson and the…what was their name again?...er…yeah that’s it… the “Conservative and Unionist Party” fighting it out for third place and then way back in the distance “Respect” grappling with the realisation that militant-leftists and angry Muslims are in short supply in the north east which has had a tradition of backing moderate Labour politicians… by the way how goes the “sign war” ?  

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Iain Wright is the best candidate for Labour and has the local credentials, which still way heavily in the North-East.

Agreed... he recently accused the LibDems of being closet Tories

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Small world, eh?

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Agreed

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Is Steinberg standing again?
City of Durham is a strange, strange seat... if it was just Durham proper, the SDP would have won it (easily) in the '80's and it might have been LibDem in '92... but it's ringed by a load of old pit villages, which are usually able to swamp the city itself, as happend in the Euro's... I was suprised we came up on top in that seat actually.
There should be a higher turnout in the pit villages come the General Election though.

[Ben.]

If i where a young Labour MP I'd try something along the lines of Edwards and other populists in the US when it comes to the old coal and steel communities, particularly steel, calling for a clamp down on companies that outsource jobs and raising tariffs on foreign steel as well as seeing if the pits could be made profitable again... such a brand of leftwing populism could have the potential to really appeal to many working class Labour voters... that said in Hartlepool I think a little positive campaigning on the economy, health, education and crime wouldn't be a bad idea for Labour  

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If i where a young Labour MP I'd try something along the lines of Edwards and other populists in the US when it comes to the old coal and steel communities, particularly steel, calling for a clamp down on companies that outsource jobs and raising tariffs on foreign steel as well as seeing if the pits could be made profitable again... such a brand of leftwing populism could have the potential to really appeal to many working class Labour voters... that said in Hartlepool I think a little positive campaigning on the economy, health, education and crime wouldn't be a bad idea for Labour  

There are no Deep Pits in County Durham anymore
IIRC there are a couple of open pits along the coast though... and there are still a few Deep Pits along the Wansbeck (in Northumberland)... an election winner would be demanding that new ones were sunk, along with community regeneration and so on.
Won't happen until there's an energy crisis (as there will be at some point) though...

[Ben.]

 

If i where a young Labour MP I'd try something along the lines of Edwards and other populists in the US when it comes to the old coal and steel communities, particularly steel, calling for a clamp down on companies that outsource jobs and raising tariffs on foreign steel as well as seeing if the pits could be made profitable again... such a brand of leftwing populism could have the potential to really appeal to many working class Labour voters... that said in Hartlepool I think a little positive campaigning on the economy, health, education and crime wouldn't be a bad idea for Labour  

There are no Deep Pits in County Durham anymore
IIRC there are a couple of open pits along the coast though... and there are still a few Deep Pits along the Wansbeck (in Northumberland)... an election winner would be demanding that new ones were sunk, along with community regeneration and so on.
Won't happen until there's an energy crisis (as there will be at some point) though...

Sad thing is that now there are new cleaner ways of buring coal and yet things still are not done to reopen some of these pits, but as you say some time in the middle of this century the power industry is going to need to look to coal again and then a string of these pits may well open again... that said i think some protectionism when it comes to steel would be a great idea it could bring some "proper jobs" back to cities like Sheffield and the Welsh valleys... the likes of Rhodri Morgan would be most impressed by such an idea, however the authority to push such a plan forward is somewhat outside of Mr Morgan's power    

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If i where a young Labour MP I'd try something along the lines of Edwards and other populists in the US when it comes to the old coal and steel communities, particularly steel, calling for a clamp down on companies that outsource jobs and raising tariffs on foreign steel as well as seeing if the pits could be made profitable again... such a brand of leftwing populism could have the potential to really appeal to many working class Labour voters... that said in Hartlepool I think a little positive campaigning on the economy, health, education and crime wouldn't be a bad idea for Labour  

There are no Deep Pits in County Durham anymore
IIRC there are a couple of open pits along the coast though... and there are still a few Deep Pits along the Wansbeck (in Northumberland)... an election winner would be demanding that new ones were sunk, along with community regeneration and so on.
Won't happen until there's an energy crisis (as there will be at some point) though...

Sad thing is that now there are new cleaner ways of buring coal and yet things still are not done to reopen some of these pits, but as you say some time in the middle of this century the power industry is going to need to look to coal again and then a string of these pits may well open again... that said i think some protectionism when it comes to coal would be a great idea it could bring some "proper jobs" back to cities like Sheffield and the Welsh valleys... the likes of Rhodri Morgan would be most impressed by such an idea, however the authority to push such a plan forward is somewhat outside of Mr Morgan's power    

We'll have to wait and see I suppose...

[Ben.]

Guacamolevill has finally offer their considered analysis of the race thus far...

http://guacamoleville.blogspot.com/2004/08/still-alliance-party.html

[Ben.]

Labour seems to be doing ok, or so the guardian reports..

 http://politics.guardian.co.uk/byelections

...good news, i thought that this would be the benfit of selecting Wright  

[Democratic Hawk]

Ben - did you get my e.mail re Hartlepool?

Al - Gerry Steinberg is retiring. CLP selected Roberta Blackman-Woods a Belfast-born academic from an all women shortlist. She defeated ex-Mayor Councillor Eileen Rochford.

Dave

[Ben.]

Ben - did you get my e.mail re Hartlepool?

Al - Gerry Steinberg is retiring. CLP selected Roberta Blackman-Woods a Belfast-born academic from an all women shortlist. She defeated ex-Mayor Councillor Eileen Rochford.

Dave

Yeah I did man, good stuff, just so long as we kick the living sh**t out of the LibDem I don't care when I’m back at uni I'll probably look at popping up to Hartlepool some time, a drunken brawl with a LibDem activist would be fun

So if your up there October time you may see me, and you may also see a mate of mine also called Ben who will proably come up with the Student Labour London delegation...  

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Al - Gerry Steinberg is retiring.

Bugger

[Ben.]

Point about City of Durham...

Labour majority of 13,441

2001 Results.

Labour : 23,254

Liberal Democrat : 9,813

Conservative : 7,167

UKIP : 1,252


And another "target" that Kennedy talks about, Newcastle Central, has a Labour majority of 11,605 and the results in 2001 where…

Labour : 19,169

Liberal Democrat : 7,564

Conservative : 7,414

Socialist Labour : 723


…in a by-election both might be close in a general election the only threat to Labour is if the Conservative vote in both seats where to collapse and even if that where to happen a large number of defections from Labour would be needed to take either seat and in a general election that won’t happen IMHO, I’d say that next time around in Durham Labour will get a majority around 10,000 or so (Steinberg from what I have heard got a lot of personal votes) and in Newcastle the majority will be around 9,000 or so (I’d expect the good performance of the libdems at the local level to translate into an improved performance in the area at the general).



   

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Steinberg always used to do unusually well in Durham proper... the Labour vote in the old pit towns will probably swamp the City (as in the '80's) but the majority will be way down on 2001.

NUT Central (which until 1983, was called NUT North) is a *very* white collar/yuppy seat and is traditionally Tory (Labour gained it in the "chattering class" backlash in '87).

[Ben.]

Steinberg always used to do unusually well in Durham proper... the Labour vote in the old pit towns will probably swamp the City (as in the '80's) but the majority will be way down on 2001.

NUT Central (which until 1983, was called NUT North) is a *very* white collar/yuppy seat and is traditionally Tory (Labour gained it in the "chattering class" backlash in '87).

On all matters to do with County Durham I defer to you al

On Newcastle Central, it was won by the conservatives in 1983, however Labour have a four term incumbent and a 10,000+ majority, while some conservatives may vote Liberal in a tactical move i think the Labour majoirty will hold up just fine.    

[Filuwaúrdjan]

NUT Central (which until 1983, was called NUT North) is a *very* white collar/yuppy seat and is traditionally Tory (Labour gained it in the "chattering class" backlash in '87).

On Newcastle Central, it was won by the conservatives in 1983, however Labour have a four term incumbent and a 10,000+ majority, while some conservatives may vote Liberal in a tactical move i think the Labour majoirty will hold up just fine.    

I think the Labour M.P (Cousins?) has a fairly large personal vote. He might be retiring (I'm not sure). If he is, we've got trouble.

[Ben.]

NUT Central (which until 1983, was called NUT North) is a *very* white collar/yuppy seat and is traditionally Tory (Labour gained it in the "chattering class" backlash in '87).

On Newcastle Central, it was won by the conservatives in 1983, however Labour have a four term incumbent and a 10,000+ majority, while some conservatives may vote Liberal in a tactical move i think the Labour majoirty will hold up just fine.    

I think the Labour M.P (Cousins?) has a fairly large personal vote. He might be retiring (I'm not sure). If he is, we've got trouble.

Two of Labour’s strongest seats  where up for selecting new candidates this time around, Gateshead and Washington East and then… damn it forgotten the name! it was Michael Foot’s old seat… but I seem to remember that the Labour MPs staying on.      

[Filuwaúrdjan]

NUT Central (which until 1983, was called NUT North) is a *very* white collar/yuppy seat and is traditionally Tory (Labour gained it in the "chattering class" backlash in '87).

On Newcastle Central, it was won by the conservatives in 1983, however Labour have a four term incumbent and a 10,000+ majority, while some conservatives may vote Liberal in a tactical move i think the Labour majoirty will hold up just fine.    

I think the Labour M.P (Cousins?) has a fairly large personal vote. He might be retiring (I'm not sure). If he is, we've got trouble.

Two of Labour’s strongest seats  where up for selecting new candidates this time around, Gateshead and Washington East and then… damn it forgotten the name! it was Michael Foot’s old seat… but I seem to remember that the Labour MPs staying on.      

Blaenau Gwent. There was a bit of a fuss over the all women shortlist, but as a Union official was selected, it seems to have died down.