Hartlepool by-election... in October or November

[JohnFKennedy]

Diamond has ruled himself out.
Some very good news though: Tom Watson is up in Hartlepool at the moment

Very good stuff... did you see Routeledge's carp in the NS the other day? that guy just gets worse and worse... Hargreaves would now seem the best candidate to me.  

You read the New Statesman? That paper has a hugely left-wing slant, I prefer the Economist, more of a centrist publication, plus it is weekly, not bi-weekly.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Diamond has ruled himself out.
Some very good news though: Tom Watson is up in Hartlepool at the moment

Very good stuff... did you see Routeledge's carp in the NS the other day? that guy just gets worse and worse... Hargreaves would now seem the best candidate to me.  

As long as they don't pick Bowe...
Routeledge gets worse and worse all the time...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Diamond has ruled himself out.
Some very good news though: Tom Watson is up in Hartlepool at the moment

Very good stuff... did you see Routeledge's carp in the NS the other day? that guy just gets worse and worse... Hargreaves would now seem the best candidate to me.  

You read the New Statesman? That paper has a hugely left-wing slant, I prefer the Economist, more of a centrist publication, plus it is weekly, not bi-weekly.

Heh, that's nowt. I read Tribune... if only for old times sake (IIRC correctly that insufferable prick, Seddon, is retiring soon...)

[minionofmidas]

"Moss Boddy" is an interesting name...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The LibDems have selected their candidate: a local barrister called Jodie Dunn. Another irritating female yuppy by the sounds of it...

Apparently former Labour MEP Mo O'Toole is thinking about standing.

[kevlar85]

I'm not sure about this election, my head says it'll be Labour with a reduced majority but I wouldn't rule out a UKIP surprise. I'd also point out that it's been documented that Labour HQ put a lot of resources into Hartlepool at the local elections earlier this year in preparation for the by-election, once the other parties get their campaigning in gear that advantage will be gone. Plus because of Mandy's departure Europe will be at the centre of the campaign and UKIP has a lot of support amongst the working class (ie; places like Hartlepool).

A more interesting question is how bad will the Tories do? Hartlepool isn't Tory at the best of times, let alone with a wider variety of candidates getting attention and the possibility of a split Tory vote, in Hartlepool with UKIP and the Lib Dems, 3rd place would be a good result, 4th or 5th being more realistic, not what Howard needs in the run up to a general election...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If Hartlepool was almost any other seat in the North East, It'd be a Labour slam-dunk no question about it.
Problem is that it isn't...
Hartlepool's never been fanatically Labour like most of it's neighbours are (when Mandleson cracked 60% in 1997 it was, IIRC, the first time a Labour candidate had ever done that in Hartlepool) and there's that quirky stuff as well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Apparently Diamond is still running

[Ben.]

Apparently Diamond is still running

Yeah so the Independent says... odd how he takes himself out the running and then apears to still be running, Pam Hargreaves would be the stronger candidate IMHO... she's a woman, local, young (but not too young) and has already been elected by people in the area.  

[Ben.]

I wouldn't be too certain that the UKIP can repeat its showing at non-European elections...although their chances should be better at a by-election than a general election...certainly, if UKIP, LDs and the monkey stand against each other and run well (and maybe Respect too?), the protest vote would be so well and truly split that Labour can run away with it.

I'd be suprised if Respect did well in Monkeyland... hardly any Muslims or Yuppies.
The NSDAP BNP might do well though

Respect have now nominated a candidate http://guacamoleville.blogspot.com/ , however ethnic minorities in Hartlepool account for just 1.2% of the population... I'd be surprised if the Trots even got that... ah well Galloway has an ego to boost... burke!


I repeat I still expect a solid win for any reasonable Labour candidate and I still urge who ever is listening that Pam Hargreaves is the most likely to pull off a solid win, she’s a risk but in a by-election I can’t help thinking that she would be the best candidate… with no Robo


With UKIP runing however i see this as a Labour vs  UKIP fight with LibDems second and Conservatives a bad fourth...  

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Pat Diamond is not seeking the Labour nod

[Ben.]

Pat Diamond is not seeking the Labour nod

Yeah guacamoleville just said well I'm holding out for Hargreaves however Iain Wright and Steve Wallace seem like they could be good candidates IMHO...  

[Filuwaúrdjan]

29 candidates are seeking the Labour nomination...

[Ben.]

Labour shortlist has now been revealed...

Phil Graham, a Labour Party agent and Communication Workers Union official from Bishop Auckland

Kath Rolf, a councillor from Sunderland

Ms Lee Vasey, a councillor from Darlington

Iain Wright, a councillor from Hartlepool

...two women I had not heard of so far... of these however I'd say that Wright has a slight advantage.  

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour shortlist has now been revealed...

Phil Graham, a Labour Party agent and Communication Workers Union official from Bishop Auckland

Kath Rolf, a councillor from Sunderland

Ms Lee Vasey, a councillor from Darlington

Iain Wright, a councillor from Hartlepool

...two women I had not heard of so far... of these however I'd say that Wright has a slight advantage.  

As Graham is from Bishop I'll be supporting him
I think Wright'll get it though

[Ben.]

Wright has been given the nod...

http://guacamoleville.blogspot.com/

...wining 78% on the first ballot of Hartlepool members , youngish father of three and leading member of the Labour Lead council (which was retaken from the LibDems earlier this year), hmm... I think he looks like a strong candidate...

And to the LibDems and UKIP... "BRING IT ON!"  

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wright has been given the nod...

http://guacamoleville.blogspot.com/

...wining 78% on the first ballot of Hartlepool members , youngish father of three and leading member of the Labour Lead council (which was retaken from the LibDems earlier this year), hmm... I think he looks like a strong candidate...

And to the LibDems and UKIP... "BRING IT ON!"  

Good choice. Rock solid Local and Union creditentials=favourite as of now

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He's not running!

[Ben.]

He's not running!

But then that gives all the media attention back to the LibDems... not an all togetherly good thing IMHO... Kilroy would really have done for the LibDems IMHO... that said I think he could have taken a far larger chunck of Labour voters than the LibDems will... then again I think Labour will hold this one anyway

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He's not running!

But then that gives all the media attention back to the LibDems... not an all togetherly good thing IMHO... Kilroy would really have done for the LibDems IMHO... that said I think he could have taken a far larger chunck of Labour voters than the LibDems will... then again I think Labour will hold this one anyway

Prior to the Kilroy announcement, oddly enough Wright had been getting most of the media attention (the Mirror likes him apparently. That's a bonus in Monkeyland)... I think that the Tory candidate in 2001 is running as an Indie... Oh and UKIP will be running someone else methinks...

[Ben.]

He's not running!

But then that gives all the media attention back to the LibDems... not an all togetherly good thing IMHO... Kilroy would really have done for the LibDems IMHO... that said I think he could have taken a far larger chunck of Labour voters than the LibDems will... then again I think Labour will hold this one anyway

Prior to the Kilroy announcement, oddly enough Wright had been getting most of the media attention (the Mirror likes him apparently. That's a bonus in Monkeyland)... I think that the Tory candidate in 2001 is running as an Indie... Oh and UKIP will be running someone else methinks...

Yeah the Mirror does seem to like the guy (from what i have read on its website) and that can only be a good thing... while Gus Robinson (Tory candidate in 2001) running as an independent could actually means he comes in second (the Conservative Tag actually hurt him IMHO) and UKIP (even without Kilroy) will be running about even with the Tories in a battle for fourth or even third place... so all seems good so far with a very divided field facing a strong Labour candidate with the undivided backing of Labour HQ... and as I said I still think Labour will hold this one with a slightly reduced majority (between 1,000 and 5,000 votes I say ).  

[Ben.]

Al. Out of interest do you think that the Liberal Democrats could take the Harbourgh seat from the Conservatives, the reason is I have family in the North of the Constituency (the suburban area), the Tory majority was cut to pieces in 1997 but thanks to the split between the Labour and LibDem candidates the Conservatives held, in 2001 the Labour vote fell down again to a solid third while the LibDems retook ground, the areas is becoming more and more suburban (full of commuters) and the Conservative vote in the villages is increasingly not sufficient to hold back the LibDems while in the European Elections UKIP did very well in area and will probably spend some time on the constituency as I think will the Liberals…

The 2001 results where as follows…

Edward Garnier, Conservative : 20,748 (44.7%)
Jill Hope, Liberal Democrat : 15,496 (33.4%)
Raj Jethwa, Labour : 9,271 (20.0%)
David Knight, UKIP : 912 (2.0%)

….just wondered what you though?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Al. Out of interest do you think that the Liberal Democrats could take the Harbourgh seat from the Conservatives, the reason is I have family in the North of the Constituency (the suburban area), the Tory majority was cut to pieces in 1997 but thanks to the split between the Labour and LibDem candidates the Conservatives held, in 2001 the Labour vote fell down again to a solid third while the LibDems retook ground, the areas is becoming more and more suburban (full of commuters) and the Conservative vote in the villages is increasingly not sufficient to hold back the LibDems while in the European Elections UKIP did very well in area and will probably spend some time on the constituency as I think will the Liberals…

The 2001 results where as follows…

Edward Garnier, Conservative : 20,748 (44.7%)
Jill Hope, Liberal Democrat : 15,496 (33.4%)
Raj Jethwa, Labour : 9,271 (20.0%)
David Knight, UKIP : 912 (2.0%)

….just wondered what you though?

It's certainly possible... Harborough is an interesting example of a seat where the growth of suburbs has actually *hurt* the Tories, making it worth watching.
I'd guess that the Liberals will flood the area in an attempt to hold Leicester South and win Harborough (which could backfire)... from what I've been hearing they don't intend to play safe next election.
IIRC the seat's got a large student population... not exactly the most Tory friendly demographic nowadays and the Tory M.P's majority isn't one to boast about...
I'd say the Tories are slight favourites to hold on, although it could depend on national trends.
Any local major local issues?

[Ben.]

Any local major local issues?

Urban Growth (lots of new housing estates but most for professionals or families few for first time home owners, there is also an issue with "urban sprawl").

Hospitals (smaller surgeries have been closed in some cases and services reduced else where).

Gypsies (the antipathy many in the South of the constituency, around Harbourgh its self, hold for the large communities around the Northamptonshire/ Leicestershire border, is quite striking).

Post Offices (this could be big issue for those in the villages in particular, but this will probably just reinforce the Tory advantage in their traditional heartland)


... as for Leicester South, I can see some LibDem resources being spent there, but I think they are more likely to prioritise hitting marginal conservative seats especially those held by May, Letwin and Davis and seats where UKIP are expected to do well enough to split the Tory vote and "let the Liberals in"... I think that in Brent (which I expect Labour to retake by a few thousand votes) will be treated as an extension of the operation in Hughes’ Bermondsey fiethdom however I think the Liberal concentration on marginal Tory and suburban Labour seats will mean that both Brent and Leicester will be lower priorities neither Teather nor Gill are that important to the LibDems nationally... well Gill certainly is not, Teather has some symbolic and sentimental value within the Liberal Party as a whole but that is no reason to go to extreme length to defend her to the detriment of the national operation, she’s largely going to be on her own I think…  

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Gypsies (the antipathy many in the South of the constituency, around Harbourgh its self, hold for the large communities around the Northamptonshire/ Leicestershire border, is quite striking).

Ickky. Another bad place for Anti-Gypsy racism is Northern Herefordshire (around Leominster).
That's an issue that'll help the Tories methinks...

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Fiefdom is accurate. Very, very accurate