My 2008 Prediction.....What's Yours?

[Bacon King]

If the GOP wins expect the northeast, west coast and Hawaii to walk out of the union.

Hahahahahahahahahahahaha, that's so stupid!

It's Straha. Rule number one of the Atlas forum is to put him on ignore so you don't have to see what he types.

Is it just me, or is he trolling a LOT more now than he was before?

He's desperate for attention, I would imagine.

[Jaggerjack]

If the GOP wins expect the northeast, west coast and Hawaii to walk out of the union.

Hahahahahahahahahahahaha, that's so stupid!

It's Straha. Rule number one of the Atlas forum is to put him on ignore so you don't have to see what he types.

Is it just me, or is he trolling a LOT more now than he was before?

He's desperate for attention, I would imagine.

How long till he starts posting porn for that attention he so wants? xD

[Stranger in a strange land]

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I think her VP will be Tom Vilsack.
[/quote]

I have a feeling the Dems will hold strickland in reserve as future presidential material. Bayh would be a good VP for Hillary or Obama if for nothing else because his image and persona scream "white male" and while he;ll help in the midwest, I think the dems have little hope of winning Indiana unless the election is a complete rout for the republicans.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

My Prediction at present:

[Lincoln Republican]

I'm ready to call the Democratic ticket and go on record for 2008.

Senator Hillary Clinton (NY)/Senator Evan Bayh (IN)

Game, set, match.

You read it here first.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I'll say that I still believe the tickets will be as follows:

Fred Thompson/Bill Owens vs. Hillary Clinton/Joe Biden

[HappyWarrior]

That is totally stupid, first of all Thompson has no chance, it's to easy to portray him as a lazy do nothing.  Second, Hillary and Biden are two experienced capable leaders.  That ticket would be easy for them to beat.

[MasterJedi]

If Bush couldn't win those states in 2004 there's no way Thompson would win them in 2008. And Nevada wouldn't go Dem while Michigan and Pennsylvania vote Repub.

[Person Man]

If Bush couldn't win those states in 2004 there's no way Thompson would win them in 2008. And Nevada wouldn't go Dem while Michigan and Pennsylvania vote Repub.

I don't know about that. Things get a little "funny" when a anti-gun GOPer runs, or a pro-choice one for that matter. It could make one part of the country trend harder than the other parts. Being anti-gun will make you perform worse in the west while being pro-choice will make you run better in the west and vice-versa for the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes.

[angus]

My prediction:

Your initial assessment is very good. 2008 will definitely be a realignment election. Much as the Reagan sweep of 1980 and re-sweep of 1984, the campaign may start close between the two major parties, but will break wide open for Clinton in October 2008. I predict that Clinton will take all of the Gore states (with landslides in states that were marginally for Gore, like MN, IA, WI) plus FLA, OH, NV, AZ, CO, MT and perhaps AK, even IN. She may lose NH, as Gore did. The GOP will keep GA, but barely. GA will be the next southern state to slowly move back into the blue column. I predict a similar vote turnout as in 2004, around 130,000,000 voters, and Clinton will take well over 70,000,000 of them.

The huge paradigm shift in the west will become more and more obvious, with MO slowly turning blue and the SE states of NM / AZ / CO (yeah, I know, is officially a mountain state) falling reliably into the DEM column. Clinton will sweep the east coast with figures over 70%, likewise California.

Her running mate? Could be Richardson, but I have a feeling she will tip Evan Bayh. Bayh has the perfect look for a VP and could win IN for the dems. Another candidate for VP: Gov. Strickland out of Ohio, who is on his way to becoming the most popular Governor in Ohio history. He is also a methodist minister and practically untouchable in the "family values" category.

Kucinich will fight up to the nomination and then will go into the trash heap of history. Likewise Gravel.  The first middle-tier candidate to jump off the bandwagon will be Richardson, followed by Biden. Obama will stall in mid-campaign and at some time, Edward's "I'm for the poor" routine will no longer play.

a bold prediction indeed.  you do realize that indiana hasn't awarded its electoral voted to any Democrat since gasoline was 33 cents per gallon and none us of were born yet.  Of course it happened at a time when Republicans nominated Barry Goldwater, who was so far to the right that he scared most of the country, and handed Lyndon Johnson an easy victory (isn't it striking that neither party has learned to consistently nominate from the middle). 

But it sort of trails off into weakness and abiguity in the end (e.g., "obama will stall in mid-campaign") and doesn't really offer any couter paradigm shift, which is what would be expected in any two-party system when one regional culture goes en masse from the less nationalistic to the more nationalistic party.  Unless you're assuming a generation-long lag in the GOP, much like that inside the Democrat party in the late 1800s.  It's possible.  If the public is so fed up with the expense of the imperialistic projects that are at the heart of the neoconservative movement, and if the public has been sufficiently convinced that the problem caused by too much government involvement in health care (i.e., that we spend 16% of our GNP on it) will be cured by yet more government involvement in health care, then we may see that lag occur.  Then the Republican party would have to undergo that long soul search--how to reconcile abject nationalism with compassion and morality, that sort of thing.  Not necessarily a bad thing for them, assuming we could live with the consequences of Democrat party rule for a couple of decades.

Hmmm.  I guess I'm not really predicting any of that.  But yours is a bold and interesting read.

[opebo]

...if the public has been sufficiently convinced that the problem caused by too much government involvement in health care (i.e., that we spend 16% of our GNP on it) will be cured by yet more government involvement in health care...

Please explain this completely unsupported assertion, angus.  After all, as far as I've heard, all the countries with 'socialized medicine' spend much less than 16% of GDP on health care.

[angus]

?!

(that's a double-take.  maybe there's an emoticon for it but I don't know what it'd be.)

what assertion are you referring to?  the fact that we spend a huge amount on health care?  look it up, it's astronomical.  like around 16% as I recall.  or the fact that we didn't spend nearly that much till big government regulations got in the way of old-fashioned doctoring?  look that up as well.  it's a fact that until about 1955 we spent an estimated four percent of our gdp on health care, as nearly as I can remember.  and yes I'm aware that nobody else spends that amount of their gdp on it.  I'm not sure that this last piece of well-known information has anything to do with what I was getting at in my post, though.

not getting your point at all.  seriously, I love to argue with you, but I'm a bit clueless at the moment.  let me know what you'd like to argue about and I'll give it a shot.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

I believe Mitt Romney will win the Republican Nomination, after taking out Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. He will be unstoppable, if Romney manages to pull off this feet. For Vice President, Governor Romney would select the conservative Senator from Kansas, Sam Brownback.

Whilst on the Democratic side, I believe it will be a two man fight for the nomination between Hillary and Obama, with most of the other candidates dropping out early. After months of battling for the nomination, Hillary Clinton will emerge the Democrats nominee. For Vice President, Senator Clinton would select the experienced Governor of New Mexico Bill Richardson.

The election would probably be close until the final weeks of the campaign, where the Democratic ticket of Clinton/Richardson would emerge victorious over Romney/Brownback.

Clinton/Richardson 321 EV 51%
Romney/Brownback 217 EV 47%
Third Parties 0 EV 2%

[wdecker1]

Clinton wins the nomination, and if the President is still has low ratings in 2008, then the Democrats will win.  Under this scenario I believe Clinton will pick up IA and NM, which went with Gore in 2000 and was barely won by Bush in 2004.  I believe she will pick up MO and OH b/c they tend to follow national trends.  If VA continues it trend toward the Dems, then she can pick up that state.  She will pick up AR b/c the Clintons are still popular there, the Dems still have a stronghold over the state, and Kerry got 45% there, by far his best showing in the Deep South, excluding FL.  FL will go to Clinton based on it being a moderate state.  CO seems to be trending Dem with the Dems winning the Senate in 04 and the Gov's seat in 06, so she will pick up that.  The other state she will pick up is NV, which Kerry lost by just a couple of points.  However, she will not pick up WV b/c it has trended too far to the GOP (Kerry lost by over 10 points there).  The same with Louisania.  As for Kentucky she has a chance.  Even though Kerry lost close to 20 points there, Bill won the state in 92 and 96.  Further, the Dems are gaining ground w/in the state b/c the current GOP Gov is polling very bad and will likely lose the election this year, and McConnell is not polling well in his bid for reelection in 08.

[Verily]

I believe Mitt Romney will win the Republican Nomination, after taking out Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. He will be unstoppable, if Romney manages to pull off this feet. For Vice President, Governor Romney would select the conservative Senator from Kansas, Sam Brownback.

Whilst on the Democratic side, I believe it will be a two man fight for the nomination between Hillary and Obama, with most of the other candidates dropping out early. After months of battling for the nomination, Hillary Clinton will emerge the Democrats nominee. For Vice President, Senator Clinton would select the experienced Governor of New Mexico Bill Richardson.

The election would probably be close until the final weeks of the campaign, where the Democratic ticket of Clinton/Richardson would emerge victorious over Romney/Brownback.

Clinton/Richardson 321 EV 51%
Romney/Brownback 217 EV 47%
Third Parties 0 EV 2%

This sounds like a reasonable prediction, though I'm not sure Romney would choose Brownback. (Why go for a conservative Catholic when he could go for a conservative Protestant?)