European Parliament 2009

[Ethelberth]

d

[afleitch]

I'm hoping to stand.

[Harry Hayfield]

I'm hoping to stand.

Under the rules of the treaties that allowed Romania and Bulgaria to become EU members on January 1st 2007, the UK agreed to lose six MEP's at the next Euro Elections in 2009. Today the Electoral Commission has announced which UK regions will lose MEP's, those regions are:

East Midlands: Was 6, Recommended 5: Bill Newton Dunn (Lib Dem) OUT
London: Was 9, Recommended 8: Robert Evans (Lab) OUT
North West: Was 9, Recommended 8: Saj Karim (Lib Dem) OUT
South West: Was 7, Recommended 6: Giles Chichester (Con) OUT
West Midlands: Was 7, Recommended 6: Malcolm Harbour (Con) OUT
Scotland: Was 7, Recommended 6: John Purvis (Con) OUT
All other regions unchanged

Notional 2004 result (and changes): Con 24 (-3) Lab 18 (-1) UKIP 12 (n/c) Lib Dem 10 (-2), SNP 2 (n/c), Green 2 (n/c), Plaid 1 (n/c), NI Parties 3 (n/c)

Scotland 2004 Notionals: 1st seat Lab, 2nd seat SNP, 3rd seat Con, 4th seat Lab, 5th seat Lib Dem, 6th seat SNP.

My inital assessement is that you would have be placed either first or second to be assured a place in Europe, third is pushing your luck and fourth or lower means forget it.

[Hash]

France will be interesting. Will the MoDem and PSLE run seperate or together? Can the PCF and FN hold on to their seats after the 2007 humiliation(s)?

[Tender Branson]

Austria will also be interesting, because I´m sure that Hans-Peter Martin and his ETI list won´t be able to defend the 14% and 2 Euro Parliament seats they gained in 2004. He´s a bit worn out recently and was just able to get 3% in the 2006 Austrian federal elections.

So probably lot´s of his voters will cross over to the Far-Right Freedom Party (FPÖ) which just had 6% in 2004, but reached 11% in last years federal elections.

It also remains to be seen if the Conservative-Centrist ÖVP or the Social Democrats (SPÖ) will be first. Also, the Green Party could reach 15% in 2009, which would be a new high. The BZÖ and the Communist Party though are unlikely to get any seats.

[afleitch]

The report has criticised the governments distribution of seats across the UK; while it recommends Scotland loosing one MSP based on the governments method it says that Scotland's 'unique' position should be given greater consideration. There may be a review.

[Ben.]

On the face of it I'd expect a modest recovery for Labour, while Conservative hopes are tied up with the extent to which the UKIP vote unravels and with UKIP effectively broke and the the contests' status as a second order election i cant help but think that the Conservative position should improve some what as UKIP collapses. 

[Democratic Hawk]

I'm hoping to stand.

Good luck if you do

I hate the system whereby the UK currently elects it's MEPs. F***ing abominable and that's swearing

In 2004, the Northeast voted 34.1% Labour; 18.6% Conservative and 17.8% Lib Dem and what did we get? One Labour, one Tory and a Lib Dem. STV would be preferable to the closed party list system. Indeed, it's the system I find objectionable rather than the result

Dave

[Umengus]

France will be interesting. Will the MoDem and PSLE run seperate or together? Can the PCF and FN hold on to their seats after the 2007 humiliation(s)?

1) separate

2) probably for FN. Last ifop poll showed a (first) disaffection of sarkozy amongst Fn voters, compensed by more favorable views amongst left voters. For now.

But next (2008), it's local elections and a close look on henin beaumont which could play the same role than Dreux in early 80's. briois will first and marine second (she did 45% on the city at the second turn of the legislative).

Paris will be interessant, Lyon, Toulouse, Lille also. And of courses wave of not.

[Hash]

France will be interesting. Will the MoDem and PSLE run seperate or together? Can the PCF and FN hold on to their seats after the 2007 humiliation(s)?

1) separate

2) probably for FN. Last ifop poll showed a (first) disaffection of sarkozy amongst Fn voters, compensed by more favorable views amongst left voters. For now.

But next (2008), it's local elections and a close look on henin beaumont which could play the same role than Dreux in early 80's. briois will first and marine second (she did 45% on the city at the second turn of the legislative).

Paris will be interessant, Lyon, Toulouse, Lille also. And of courses wave of not.

Although Marine Le Pen didn't win in any commune come the second round of voting in Henin-Beaumont (she did win Henin-Beaumont commune round one). Who is the FN candidate there anyways?
Seperate? Could be, although NC-PSLE was formed to participate in the majority, not because they hated Bayrou's guts (although they kind of must now).

[Hash]

France will be interesting. Will the MoDem and PSLE run seperate or together? Can the PCF and FN hold on to their seats after the 2007 humiliation(s)?

1) separate

2) probably for FN. Last ifop poll showed a (first) disaffection of sarkozy amongst Fn voters, compensed by more favorable views amongst left voters. For now.

But next (2008), it's local elections and a close look on henin beaumont which could play the same role than Dreux in early 80's. briois will first and marine second (she did 45% on the city at the second turn of the legislative).

Paris will be interessant, Lyon, Toulouse, Lille also. And of courses wave of not.

You forgot cantonales and Senatorial elections.

[Harry Hayfield]

If you're annoyed with the North Eastern Result, I don't know what you'd make of South East:

Con 35% (4 MEP's) = 8.75% per MEP
Lab 14% (1 MEP) = 14% per MEP
LDm 15% (2 MEP's) = 7.5% per MEP
Green 8% (1 MEP) = 8% per MEP
UKIP 20% (2 MEP's) = 10% per MEP

Hardly proportional is it?

[Hash]

If you're annoyed with the North Eastern Result, I don't know what you'd make of South East:

Con 35% (4 MEP's) = 8.75% per MEP
Lab 14% (1 MEP) = 14% per MEP
LDm 15% (2 MEP's) = 7.5% per MEP
Green 8% (1 MEP) = 8% per MEP
UKIP 20% (2 MEP's) = 10% per MEP

Hardly proportional is it?

Uh?

[Angel of Death]

3. The new "commonsense right" from Benelux (PVV in Netherlands and List Decker in Belgium)

PVV commonsense? Oh, please! It's nothing more than an Islamophobic party led by an Israel-firster.

[Verily]

I'm hoping to stand.

Good luck if you do

I hate the system whereby the UK currently elects it's MEPs. F***ing abominable and that's swearing

In 2004, the Northeast voted 34.1% Labour; 18.6% Conservative and 17.8% Lib Dem and what did we get? One Labour, one Tory and a Lib Dem. STV would be preferable to the closed party list system. Indeed, it's the system I find objectionable rather than the result

Dave

The problem is that the Northeast is too small. It should be combined with Yorkshire and The Humber (or with the Northwest, but I think the former would be more popular).

[Democratic Hawk]

If you're annoyed with the North Eastern Result, I don't know what you'd make of South East:

Con 35% (4 MEP's) = 8.75% per MEP
Lab 14% (1 MEP) = 14% per MEP
LDm 15% (2 MEP's) = 7.5% per MEP
Green 8% (1 MEP) = 8% per MEP
UKIP 20% (2 MEP's) = 10% per MEP

Hardly proportional is it?

It's bleeding awful

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

I'm hoping to stand.

Good luck if you do

I hate the system whereby the UK currently elects it's MEPs. F***ing abominable and that's swearing

In 2004, the Northeast voted 34.1% Labour; 18.6% Conservative and 17.8% Lib Dem and what did we get? One Labour, one Tory and a Lib Dem. STV would be preferable to the closed party list system. Indeed, it's the system I find objectionable rather than the result

Dave

The problem is that the Northeast is too small. It should be combined with Yorkshire and The Humber (or with the Northwest, but I think the former would be more popular).

Of the two, Yorkshire and The Humber is certainly the more logical given that we were once, many moons ago, part of the same Anglo-Saxon kingdom. It still wouldn't change the way I feel about the putrid closed party list system

Dave