Pete Wilson's crusade against immigrants in 1994 is still the main reason for Imperial County's Democratic edge. I agree with John, from my understandings.
Actually, I think we disagree unless I misunderstand you. I am saying that 187 has little at all to do with latinos aligning with the Democratic Party. Democrats get about the same share of the latino vote in California as in any other state, so I am arguing that 187 did not have some unique effect on California latinos. Latinos vote Democrat in California in the same proportion as they do elsewhere and they vote that way for the same reason they do elsewhere. I really doubt that 187 has much to do with anything.
I would also disagree that 187 is responsible for the Democratic edge in Imperial. Democrats have an edge in Imperial because of latinos voters, yes, but as I've said, I don't attribute their party affiliation to 187, and neither should anyone else.
Its also important to remember when talking about Pete Wilson that in 1994 when he ran for re-election and 187 was on the ballot, latinos were only 9% of the electorate. In 2004, it was 18%. So, a huge chunk of the latino vote in this state has little or no memory of Wilson or 187 (In fact, they were not in the electorate at all when 187 was on the ballot).
How can it be true that these voters are Democrats because of 187 when they are unlikely to have much memory of 187?
I thought Prop. 187 turned millions of Californian Hispanics against the GOP. I may be wrong, that was just my impression. I know they weren't strong GOP supporters to begin with, but 187 made things much harder.
As I've said, I just can't agree. Is there some substantial evidence that latino voters changed their affiliation because of 187? As far as I can tell, they voted aboiut 2/3rds Democrat before and after Prop 187. I see no shift in affiliation resulting from 187.
I also can't stress enough that latino voters are not a static group. Their membership is constantly being expanded by new immigrants, most of whom will be poor and therefore inclined towards the Democratic Party. Let's say there are 100 members of a group and they vote 50/50 for the Republicans and Democrats. Then, 20 new members of said group show up and they all vote Democrat. Suddenly, Democrats have gone from recieving 50% of this fictional group's vote to recieving 58% of the vote. No individual member of the group changed thier affiliation, but the new members changed the political identity of the group in the aggregate substantially.
