Electoral College: any changes coming?

[NorthernDog]

I take some comfort in knowing that the Electoral College, despite its shortcomings, is virtually written in stone.  There just isn't any widespread groundswell to throw it out.  The only problem I can foresee is if a 3rd party challenger garners enough electoral votes to throw the election into the House of Representatives.  I can't fathom what issue would split the country so much but a situation like 1968 will probably happen again.  

[NorthernDog]

A third party split of the EC is much more unlikely now than 1968

I agree that it is increasingly unlikely, but the following could happen in the future: Suppose the Democrats nominate Gephart, who supported the Iraq war. The anti-war people revolt and support a 3rd party candiate, who wins VT.  In the meantime Bush wins the same states as he did in 2000 except MO. Electoral Result (Updated EV count) : Bush 268, Gephart 267, 3rd party- 3.   Unlikely but possible if the 3rd party guy is Howard Dean.

[NorthernDog]

I don't believe that the EC requires broad geographic support in order to win. Actually, I believe the opposite is true. With the EC, it is possible to narrowly win in one area of the country and get blown out in other areas, and win the election. That's not possible with the popular vote.

Which area of the country could one win narrowly and achieve 270 electoral votes?  
I don't see how that could happen.

[NorthernDog]

NorthernDog,

Interesting scenario.  Unfortunately, I believe if an antiwar independent candidate got enough votes to win a state (close to a third of the vote at least) to win a single state, that candidate would also get enough votes in other states, and enough of those votes would otherwise go to the Democratic candidate, that President Bush would win a landslide electoral victory.  

I agree, but I just wanted to concoct a possible "tie" outcome in the EC for '04.  I don't foresee a 3rd party in 2004 unless Dean is torpedoed by the Dem establishment.

[NorthernDog]

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The only instance of this was 1888 when Grover Cleveland lost the EC by a wide margin despite carrying the popular vote by about 1%.  The rule of thumb now is if the popular vote is within 1/2%, you may get a divergence in the EC and popular vote like in 2000.