In 2004 someone said: "The taller candidate has always won." In 2000, it was "The winner of the popular vote has almost always won the electoral college." In 1996, it was "No democrat since WW2 has won a second full term." In 1988, they said "No sitting vice-president has won the White House since Martin van Buren."
History is a tricky temptress. Trite historical analogies don't fly when it comes to today's politics.
Very true. Call it the Sesame Street school of thought in political analysis....each of these things is like one of the others.....the idea that we need to figure out which past election the current election is like, and that will tell us what's going to happen.
The reality is that each election is unique, and the issues, candidates, and campaigns can never be and never are duplicated.