Sam Spade's 2008 Senate/House Election Prediction Thread (FINALIZED - SEE P.18)

[DownWithTheLeft]

Bob Torricelli went out with an unblemished record, too, right?

Yes, he simply was too ill to hold office or something like that...

[Conan]

Bob Torricelli went out with an unblemished record, too, right?

Yes, he simply was too ill to hold office or something like that...

What does Torricelli have to do with anything?

[© tweed]

Bob Torricelli went out with an unblemished record, too, right?

Yes, he simply was too ill to hold office or something like that...

What does Torricelli have to do with anything?

he technically did not lose is the point being made.

[Sam Spade]

Moved a few races around very slightly (a spot here, a spot there), due to some fairly strong fundraising numbers today from the GOP non-incumbents Ozinga in IL-11 and Paulsen (now over a million in COH) in MN-03.  Same thing with Kirk in IL-10, but its not unexpected there.  Moved NY-25 and AZ-01 up the Dem takeover lists for obvious reasons.

[MarkWarner08]

Moved a few races around very slightly (a spot here, a spot there), due to some fairly strong fundraising numbers today from the GOP non-incumbents Ozinga in IL-11 and Paulsen (now over a million in COH) in MN-03.  Same thing with Kirk in IL-10, but its not unexpected there.  Moved NY-25 and AZ-01 up the Dem takeover lists for obvious reasons.

Good changes. Besides NM-01, MN-03 is probably the GOP's top hope for holding a contested open seat.

[MarkWarner08]

Finally, Martin Heinrich has caught a break. In a recent NYT article, Sheriff Darren White took a shot at Bill Richardson.   “You can’t go on the national stage and have people find out you have no problem with a bloody sport,” said Sherrif White, in reference to Gov. Richardson's weak stand on cockfighting.

This could motivate Big Bill to awaken from his political slumber to take on White. A politically active Richardson campaign for Heinrich is just what the Anglo liberal's flagging campaign needs.

[Sam Spade]

Finally, Martin Heinrich has caught a break. In a recent NYT article, Sheriff Darren White took a shot at Bill Richardson.   “You can’t go on the national stage and have people find out you have no problem with a bloody sport,” said Sherrif White, in reference to Gov. Richardson's weak stand on cockfighting.

This could motivate Big Bill to awaken from his political slumber to take on White. A politically active Richardson campaign for Heinrich is just what the Anglo liberal's flagging campaign needs.

I doubt Richardson alone can save it, but who knows.

Of course, Richardson's approvals have been slowly sinking over his problems with the Legislature (among other things).

[MarkWarner08]

Finally, Martin Heinrich has caught a break. In a recent NYT article, Sheriff Darren White took a shot at Bill Richardson.   “You can’t go on the national stage and have people find out you have no problem with a bloody sport,” said Sherrif White, in reference to Gov. Richardson's weak stand on cockfighting.

This could motivate Big Bill to awaken from his political slumber to take on White. A politically active Richardson campaign for Heinrich is just what the Anglo liberal's flagging campaign needs.

I doubt Richardson alone can save it, but who knows.

Of course, Richardson's approvals have been slowly sinking over his problems with the Legislature (among other things).

Richardson has also lost a little luster wit his failed Presidential run. He and Dodd seem to be suffering in state polls because for much of the last two years, they were more focused on Des Moines than Darien or Dona Ana County, respectively.

At time point I'm not sanguine about Heinrich's chances. Barring a full-out Richardson/DCCC media blitz, White will prevail by 4-6%.

[Sam Spade]

Finally, Martin Heinrich has caught a break. In a recent NYT article, Sheriff Darren White took a shot at Bill Richardson.   “You can’t go on the national stage and have people find out you have no problem with a bloody sport,” said Sherrif White, in reference to Gov. Richardson's weak stand on cockfighting.

This could motivate Big Bill to awaken from his political slumber to take on White. A politically active Richardson campaign for Heinrich is just what the Anglo liberal's flagging campaign needs.

I doubt Richardson alone can save it, but who knows.

Of course, Richardson's approvals have been slowly sinking over his problems with the Legislature (among other things).

Richardson has also lost a little luster wit his failed Presidential run. He and Dodd seem to be suffering in state polls because for much of the last two years, they were more focused on Des Moines than Darien or Dona Ana County, respectively.

I think the little Countrywide Mortgage issue is more of a cause for Dodd than his failed Presidential run.  I thought Richardson's drop was more recent than the last two years (and more localized, I'm pretty sure).

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Media blitzes tend to not be very effective in this part of the world unless your advertising is very effective, because the voters are too weird and independent.  Who knows, maybe it'll be different this time. 

[minionofmidas]

Finally, Martin Heinrich has caught a break. In a recent NYT article, Sheriff Darren White took a shot at Bill Richardson.   “You can’t go on the national stage and have people find out you have no problem with a bloody sport,” said Sherrif White, in reference to Gov. Richardson's weak stand on cockfighting.

Cockfighting is legal in New Mexico... and the "weak" stand, certainly, consists of buckling under and following 47 states into banning it.
Which won't happen as long as Albuquerque doesn't outvote the remainder of the state. Shame White is running in Albuquerque... elsewheres being against cockfighting would cost him votes.

[Sam Spade]

Finally, Martin Heinrich has caught a break. In a recent NYT article, Sheriff Darren White took a shot at Bill Richardson.   “You can’t go on the national stage and have people find out you have no problem with a bloody sport,” said Sherrif White, in reference to Gov. Richardson's weak stand on cockfighting.

Cockfighting is legal in New Mexico... and the "weak" stand, certainly, consists of buckling under and following 47 states into banning it.
Which won't happen as long as Albuquerque doesn't outvote the remainder of the state. Shame White is running in Albuquerque... elsewheres being against cockfighting would cost him votes.

I didn't know you had sympathy for cockfighters.  cool.

[minionofmidas]

I say let the chicken choose whether to ban cockfighting or mass poultry farming. I know which would be banned.

[MarkWarner08]

Moved a few races around very slightly (a spot here, a spot there), due to some fairly strong fundraising numbers today from the GOP non-incumbents Ozinga in IL-11 and Paulsen (now over a million in COH) in MN-03.

Paulsen's not the only MN-03 candidate putting up gaudy fundraising numbers. Ashwin Madia (D): ~$650K raised (rumored) $693K raised; $738K CoH (press release)

Interestingly, I think Madia and Paulsen are both rising stars who could someday be senators. If Madia wins, he and Walz (if they're both still around) will be the top Democratic Senate candidates in 2014.

I see Paulsen as the next Paul Ryan, an adroit youngish conservative who can easily hold an otherwise marginal district. Both of these candidates have a lot of potential as legislators -- it's an unfortunate reality that one of them has to lose.

[Sam Spade]

So, it goes on the other side of Porter now.  I won't put it on the side of going Democrat without any polling on the race simply because of the history of this area of Minnesota and its tendencies.

In many ways, MN-03 and NJ-07 are sister CDs, with NJ-07 being slightly less marginal, and more importantly, with two candidates I know pretty well, henceforth the distinction.

[MarkWarner08]

So, it goes on the other side of Porter now.  I won't put it on the side of going Democrat without any polling on the race simply because of the history of this area of Minnesota and its tendencies.

In many ways, MN-03 and NJ-07 are sister CDs, with NJ-07 being slightly less marginal, and more importantly, with two candidates I know pretty well, henceforth the distinction.

Yep. If I could only watch the results of two House races, I'd choose those two. If Democrats win both, they'll have a very good night. A split hints at a decent Democratic showing. A double retention suggests Republicans will hold most "Leans R" seats and will not be blown out in open seat tossup races.

[Sam Spade]

So, it goes on the other side of Porter now.  I won't put it on the side of going Democrat without any polling on the race simply because of the history of this area of Minnesota and its tendencies.

In many ways, MN-03 and NJ-07 are sister CDs, with NJ-07 being slightly less marginal, and more importantly, with two candidates I know pretty well, henceforth the distinction.

Yep. If I could only watch the results of two House races, I'd choose those two. If Democrats win both, they'll have a very good night. A split hints at a decent Democratic showing. A double retention suggests Republicans will hold most "Leans R" seats and will not be blown out in open seat tossup races.

Well, I wouldn't be so drastic.  After all, it is possible that one or more of the candidates has a local "fcuk up" which doesn't affect the national mood.  But on the whole, you're probably right.  Of course, that's why NJ-07 is ranked where it is and MN-03 is ranked where it is.

You're also probably right on that other thread of yours that the night won't be that good for the Dems in the House should they not win the two Ohio seats.

[Sam Spade]

Made a couple of modifications to the Senate list due to the FEC filing garbage, etc. - moved Oregon ahead of MS (Wicker) (I was planning on doing this one for a while now) and moved Texas down to safe (Noriega has absoluetly zero chance with raising that little money).

House movement will probably take me until the weekend, should I decide to make any.

[MarkWarner08]

Made a couple of modifications to the Senate list due to the FEC filing garbage, etc. - moved Oregon ahead of MS (Wicker) (I was planning on doing this one for a while now) and moved Texas down to safe (Noriega has absoluetly zero chance with raising that little money).

House movement will probably take me until the weekend, should I decide to make any.

I'll follow suit on the Senate races. I'm also bumping Minnesota up to Leans Republican. Franken seems to have weathered the worst attacks and his CoH numbers should sustain him through the fall. He'll have to grab onto those Obama coattails...

If I were you, I'd nudged NJ-03 up the competitiveness chart. I've also bumped IL-10 down to #17. I have this gut feeling that Kirk will survive even if Obama wins that district with 60%, which I think is unlikely. Kirk's excellent field operations, the delicate redistricting that removed many Democratic precincts, and Seals' lack of a political base are all factors in Kirk's favor. Don't be stunned if Kirk pulls a Gerlach and wins a race he should lose on paper.

[Sam Spade]

NJ-03, why?

On IL-10, I'll agree to put him behind Musgrave, but I'm leery of doing too much, considering coattails.  Same thing applies considering what's been going on in IL-11.

[MarkWarner08]

NJ-03, why?

On IL-10, I'll agree to put him behind Musgrave, but I'm leery of doing too much, considering coattails.  Same thing applies considering what's been going on in IL-11.

I'd move NJ-03 from Tossup to Lean D. That's what I meant.

I'm suspicious of the effect of coattails in district with politically wishy-washy affluent, well-educated professionals. They may vote for Kirk as a way to keep Obama honest on taxes.

[Sam Spade]

NJ-03, why?

On IL-10, I'll agree to put him behind Musgrave, but I'm leery of doing too much, considering coattails.  Same thing applies considering what's been going on in IL-11.

I'd move NJ-03 from Tossup to Lean D. That's what I meant.

I'm suspicious of the effect of coattails in district with politically wishy-washy affluent, well-educated professionals. They may vote for Kirk as a way to keep Obama honest on taxes.

As you well should be.  Yea, I'm close to doing that myself on NJ-03 also.

I could note some of the more important House fundraising news I've read today, but that's not for this thread.

[MarkWarner08]

Interesting KS-03 fundraising numbers:
                                                          Q2        CoH
KS-03     Dennis Moore     D-inc.     $336     $1,140     
KS-03    Nick Jordan    R                 $472    $616    

Jordan may be the toughest foe Moore has ever faced. In 1998, Moore defeated ultra-conservative freshman Congressman Vince Snowbarger. In 2002, the infamous Phill Kiline lost by 3%. Two years later, the NRCC's star recruit here lost in the GOP primary, but the primary winner held Moore to a 50%-47%. The last two cycles have ended with double-digit Moore wins over conservative candidates.

Now the GOP has found a moderate from Johnson County to run against Moore. If Jordan had run in 2002, he might be running for reelection now. While Jordan is the right fit for the district, he still faces the twin challenges of incumbency (Moore finally appears to be ensconced here) and the political climate.

I've bumped this race up to #17th most likely Democratic seat to flip.

[Mr.Phips]

Interesting KS-03 fundraising numbers:
                                                          Q2        CoH
KS-03     Dennis Moore     D-inc.     $336     $1,140     
KS-03    Nick Jordan    R                 $472    $616    

Jordan may be the toughest foe Moore has ever faced. In 1998, Moore defeated ultra-conservative freshman Congressman Vince Snowbarger. In 2002, the infamous Phill Kiline lost by 3%. Two years later, the NRCC's star recruit here lost in the GOP primary, but the primary winner held Moore to a 50%-47%. The last two cycles have ended with double-digit Moore wins over conservative candidates.

Now the GOP has found a moderate from Johnson County to run against Moore. If Jordan had run in 2002, he might be running for reelection now. While Jordan is the right fit for the district, he still faces the twin challenges of incumbency (Moore finally appears to be ensconced here) and the political climate.

I've bumped this race up to #17th most likely Democratic seat to flip.

I dont know.  If Moore could survive in 2002, which was a pretty bad year for Democrats and then he faced moderate, pro-choice Adam Taff, I think he should be fine in 2008.  Johnson is really no moderate, he is pro-life(which is out of step with this socially moderate district) and doesnt seem to be very charismatic. 

Keep in mind that the last Republican to hold this district for a long time, Jan Myers(1984-1996) was strongly pro-choice. 

[Dan the Roman]

Interesting KS-03 fundraising numbers:
                                                          Q2        CoH
KS-03     Dennis Moore     D-inc.     $336     $1,140     
KS-03    Nick Jordan    R                 $472    $616    

Jordan may be the toughest foe Moore has ever faced. In 1998, Moore defeated ultra-conservative freshman Congressman Vince Snowbarger. In 2002, the infamous Phill Kiline lost by 3%. Two years later, the NRCC's star recruit here lost in the GOP primary, but the primary winner held Moore to a 50%-47%. The last two cycles have ended with double-digit Moore wins over conservative candidates.

Now the GOP has found a moderate from Johnson County to run against Moore. If Jordan had run in 2002, he might be running for reelection now. While Jordan is the right fit for the district, he still faces the twin challenges of incumbency (Moore finally appears to be ensconced here) and the political climate.

I've bumped this race up to #17th most likely Democratic seat to flip.

Perhaps. Jordan is a  "moderate"  in the sense that he is a nonentity who has not taken part in the factional squabbles in the State Senate. Unfortunately, his effort to unite the Johnson CO GOP is going to be nuked by Phil Kline's run for DA. Kline is going to win a nasty primary, and then he is going to go down in flames in the general in a area he lost by 30 points two years ago.

Normally a local race would not have coattails in a Presidential year, but Kline is currently breaking the local party to pieces, and Jordan allowed himself to be sucked in on Kline's side earlier this year. It was probably a smart decision in the short run because opposing Kline might have triggered a far-right challenge, but it undid most of Jordan's moderate credentials. If Moore is smart he will make Kline's antics the issue, as Kline has become an enormously polarizing figure.

[MarkWarner08]

Interesting KS-03 fundraising numbers:
                                                          Q2        CoH
KS-03     Dennis Moore     D-inc.     $336     $1,140     
KS-03    Nick Jordan    R                 $472    $616    

Jordan may be the toughest foe Moore has ever faced. In 1998, Moore defeated ultra-conservative freshman Congressman Vince Snowbarger. In 2002, the infamous Phill Kiline lost by 3%. Two years later, the NRCC's star recruit here lost in the GOP primary, but the primary winner held Moore to a 50%-47%. The last two cycles have ended with double-digit Moore wins over conservative candidates.

Now the GOP has found a moderate from Johnson County to run against Moore. If Jordan had run in 2002, he might be running for reelection now. While Jordan is the right fit for the district, he still faces the twin challenges of incumbency (Moore finally appears to be ensconced here) and the political climate.

I've bumped this race up to #17th most likely Democratic seat to flip.

Perhaps. Jordan is a  "moderate"  in the sense that he is a nonentity who has not taken part in the factional squabbles in the State Senate. Unfortunately, his effort to unite the Johnson CO GOP is going to be nuked by Phil Kline's run for DA. Kline is going to win a nasty primary, and then he is going to go down in flames in the general in a area he lost by 30 points two years ago.

Normally a local race would not have coattails in a Presidential year, but Kline is currently breaking the local party to pieces, and Jordan allowed himself to be sucked in on Kline's side earlier this year. It was probably a smart decision in the short run because opposing Kline might have triggered a far-right challenge, but it undid most of Jordan's moderate credentials. If Moore is smart he will make Kline's antics the issue, as Kline has become an enormously polarizing figure.

Ah... Phill Kline, a mesmerizingly charismatic public speaker who espouses views to the right of Sam Brownback's, whose mercurial career has yet to reach its eventual nadir.   Now Kline is trying to replace the Johnson County DA who replaced him as AG. I agree with your assessment of Kline's chance. Kline's presence on the ballot with hurt Jordan a little, but I doubt it will cost him the election. Voters know that Jordan is a "mod" and Kline is a"con," they'll distinguish between the two.

I expect Jordan to pull 45%-47% of the vote. If Jordan exceeds Kline's 2000 performance (which was before Kline went off the ideological deep end),  KS-03 will be one of the hottest races of the 2010 cycle. Moore may even retire if he barely wins in such a Democratic year.