Sam Spade's 2008 Senate/House Election Prediction Thread (FINALIZED - SEE P.18)

[MarkWarner08]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/1008/DCCC_adds_eight_candidates_to_list_of_top_recruits.html
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added eight new Democratic challengers to its "Red-to-Blue" list of leading recruits.

The list, once viewed as a gold standard for the party's strongest candidates, now resembles more of a compilation of any Democrat with even a small chance of winning.

One of the additions is Louisiana technology executive Jim Harlan, running in a district that gave President Bush 71 percent of the vote in 2004.  He's running against Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.), who won a special election for Bobby Jindal's old House seat.  Harlan has been self-financing much of his long-shot campaign.

Another inclusion is blind rabbi Dennis Shulman, running against Rep. Scott Garrett (R-N.J.).

The full list of additions are below:

Josh Segall (AL 03)
Nick Leibham (CA 50)
Becky Greenwald (IA 04)
Jim Harlan (LA 01)
Elwyn Tinklenberg (MN 06)
Dennis Shulman (NJ 05)
Linda Ketner (SC 01)
Larry Joe Doherty (TX 10)

Wow... the DCCC is really digging at the bottom of the barrel. Those are all the sort of candidates who will only win if the Democrats are picking up 40+ seats, which is quite a rosy scenario for them.

[Sam Spade]

You know, Lunar - I do read other websites.

[Lunar]

You read the ScoreCard?

[MarkWarner08]

The Miami Herald today endorsed Mario Diaz-Balart for reelection, but snubbed his brother Lincoln  in favor of Democrat Raul Martinez.

I still can't figure out which one of these races is closer.

[Sam Spade]

The Miami Herald today endorsed Mario Diaz-Balart for reelection, but snubbed his brother Lincoln  in favor of Democrat Raul Martinez.

I still can't figure out which one of these races is closer.

Good question.  Rothenberg seems to think Mario is safer.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/1008/DCCC_adds_eight_candidates_to_list_of_top_recruits.html
Another inclusion is blind rabbi Dennis Shulman, running against Rep. Scott Garrett (R-N.J.).

Hell yeah!

[MarkWarner08]

The Miami Herald today endorsed Mario Diaz-Balart for reelection, but snubbed his brother Lincoln  in favor of Democrat Raul Martinez.

I still can't figure out which one of these races is closer.

Good question.  Rothenberg seems to think Mario is safer.

Interesting.  A quick aside: I just checked Rothenberg's ratings and I noticed that he also ranks AK-AL as "Likely Democratic." Factoring the Palin effect and the irascible ol' devil Young's ability to squeak out wins, I've bumped this race down to the lower part of the Pure Tossup category.

Rothenberg also sees FL-24 as "Leans Democratic," which is a bit higher than I'd rank it.

[Sam Spade]

The Miami Herald today endorsed Mario Diaz-Balart for reelection, but snubbed his brother Lincoln  in favor of Democrat Raul Martinez.

I still can't figure out which one of these races is closer.

Good question.  Rothenberg seems to think Mario is safer.

Interesting.  A quick aside: I just checked Rothenberg's ratings and I noticed that he also ranks AK-AL as "Likely Democratic." Factoring the Palin effect and the irascible ol' devil Young's ability to squeak out wins, I've bumped this race down to the lower part of the Pure Tossup category.

Rothenberg also sees FL-24 as "Leans Democratic," which is a bit higher than I'd rank it.

Rothenberg trusts Alaska polling more than I do (which is incredibly little, except factoring that the Republican is always understimated).

He also still has PA-03 as Toss-up/Tilts R, which I disagree with.  I agree with you on FL-24.

[Lief 🗽]

The full list of additions are below:

Josh Segall (AL 03)
Nick Leibham (CA 50)
Becky Greenwald (IA 04)
Jim Harlan (LA 01)
Elwyn Tinklenberg (MN 06)
Dennis Shulman (NJ 05)
Linda Ketner (SC 01)
Larry Joe Doherty (TX 10)

Good stuff.

[MarkWarner08]

More rapid fire political news: The DCCC is spending $487k (!) to make a 1900 point ad buy (!!) in IN-03 (!!!). http://indiana.typepad.com/fwob/2008/10/breaking-487k-i.html

The Democrat in this race is a young lawyer who has outraised sluggish incumbent Mark Souder. This is JLT's old district, so the DCCC may be counting on her GOTV effort to bolster Democrat Mike Montagano's chances.

Like Jim Esch, Montagano is a young Democrat who could (if he wins) be positioned to hold this seat for a long time.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

More rapid fire political news: The DCCC is spending $487k (!) to make a 1900 point ad buy (!!) in IN-03 (!!!). http://indiana.typepad.com/fwob/2008/10/breaking-487k-i.html

The Democrat in this race is a young lawyer who has outraised sluggish incumbent Mark Souder. This is JLT's old district, so the DCCC may be counting on her GOTV effort to bolster Democrat Mike Montagano's chances.

Like Jim Esch, Montagano is a young Democrat who could (if he wins) be positioned to hold this seat for a long time.

I thought JLT's district was more or less what IN-2 is now.

[MarkWarner08]

More rapid fire political news: The DCCC is spending $487k (!) to make a 1900 point ad buy (!!) in IN-03 (!!!). http://indiana.typepad.com/fwob/2008/10/breaking-487k-i.html

The Democrat in this race is a young lawyer who has outraised sluggish incumbent Mark Souder. This is JLT's old district, so the DCCC may be counting on her GOTV effort to bolster Democrat Mike Montagano's chances.

Like Jim Esch, Montagano is a young Democrat who could (if he wins) be positioned to hold this seat for a long time.

I thought JLT's district was more or less what IN-2 is now.

While much of her old district is now in IN-02,  part of her political base (cue HardRCafe saying "JLT and political base in the same sentence is a joke") is in the Fort Wayne area, which is in IN-03.

[Spaghetti Cat]

Hey guys, haven't been on in a while (so busy, but football will be over soon) and now I'll try to be on more often.  Sam, I agree with your analysis pretty well, but a few changes.  I think NM-02 is more likely to go Dem at this point (put it in front of the next five or six), I would move NH-01 down 2 or 3 (somehow, I think she'll pull off a win), and I think Dems will gain maybe two or three more than what you have now (17 Dem pickups, 6 GOP, for a net total of 11 Dem pickups).  Also, as far as the Boyda-Jenkins race goes, I think the debate tonite may have a major effect on the outcome of the race.

[Sam Spade]

Hey guys, haven't been on in a while (so busy, but football will be over soon) and now I'll try to be on more often.  Sam, I agree with your analysis pretty well, but a few changes.  I think NM-02 is more likely to go Dem at this point (put it in front of the next five or six), I would move NH-01 down 2 or 3 (somehow, I think she'll pull off a win), and I think Dems will gain maybe two or three more than what you have now (17 Dem pickups, 6 GOP, for a net total of 11 Dem pickups).  Also, as far as the Boyda-Jenkins race goes, I think the debate tonite may have a major effect on the outcome of the race.

If the elections were today, the Dems would probably gain a net of 20 or so (probably 23-24 seats, while losing 3-4 to the GOP).  Rothenberg's prediction of 25-30 is possible, but I consider that the outer limit for now.  This, however, is not a *today* prediction.  Rather, it's a future one which will change as circumstances do.

MW08 and I agree on NH-01.  No more to say there.

NM-02 is a seat where the GOP is going to throw some money (and the GOP candidate has money).  Teague is from a GOP part of the CD, and that helps substantially, the question in my mind is going to be how Dona Ana goes.  Tinsley has some rep there and should perform slightly better than generic R in a even race.  How much may determine a win vs. a loss.  The internal dynamics of that seat simply favor the GOP generically.  Henceforth, tossup/Lean R.  I do suspect Teague is up a couple of points right now.

In KS-02, Jenkins has been a very impressive fundraiser and as we saw against Ryun, saved it all to the end for the last-minute bomb, which was very successful.  The DCCC will be absent here because Boyda wants it.  Boyda has shown more talent than I expected, but still... It is the closest thing to a toss-up in my mind right now.

[Spaghetti Cat]

Ok, I understand now that you're saying how it will end up on election day.  Also, what is the deal with Mahoney?  Will he issue an apology ad?  Can that save him?

[Sam Spade]

Ok, I understand now that you're saying how it will end up on election day.  Also, what is the deal with Mahoney?  Will he issue an apology ad?  Can that save him?

Mahoney is almost assuredly going down.  Watch the next thread I post.

[MarkWarner08]

Guess who the NRCC thinks is safer? Mario or Lincoln?

The IEs say it all:
 
      FL-21   NRCC   13-Oct   Direct Mail   $22,272.22

   FL-21   NRCC   13-Oct   Media Prod.   $9027.18

          FL-21   NRCC   13-Oct   Media Buy   $488,000.00

   FL-21   NRCC   10-Oct   Direct Mail   $22,815.97

   FL-21   NRCC   10-Oct   Polling   $19,074.00

         FL-25 NRCC      $0


The DCCC hasn't spent a dime in either race.  Maybe the NRCC fears that Raul Martinez's solid base in his home town is enough to carry him to victory. (A similar situation occurred in the AZ-05 race in 2006.)


BTW, the NRCC is also now up in MO-06, CO-04, OH-15, and PA-03. Existing NRCC ad buys cover WI-08, MI-07, AL-02, AL-05, and OH-01. The NRCC is now running ads in ten districts, eight of which are currently held by the GOP.

This is the first  time all cycle that the NRCC has been a relevant entity. For many of these districts, the mold may have already hardened, as Tom Davis noted.
               

[Sam Spade]

CO-04 probably.  PA-03, maybe.  Dems are still spending exceptionally heavy in OH-15, so I doubt things have hardened there.  MO-06, the Dems haven't spent much there and I agree with Stu that it's at Lean R.  Incumbent protection?

WI-08, I really doubt the chances, although it's better than other Dem-held CDs.  MI-07 is a complete toss-up to me.  So is OH-01, but Chabot has talent.  AL-02 and AL-05 make sense.

Oh, and the money does say something.  Garcia's (FL-25) people released a poll showing him 3 down today.  When that's the best you can do...

[MarkWarner08]

CO-04 probably.  PA-03, maybe.  Dems are still spending exceptionally heavy in OH-15, so I doubt things have hardened there.  MO-06, the Dems haven't spent much there and I agree with Stu that it's at Lean R.  Incumbent protection?

WI-08, I really doubt the chances, although it's better than other Dem-held CDs.  MI-07 is a complete toss-up to me.  So is OH-01, but Chabot has talent.  AL-02 and AL-05 make sense.

Oh, and the money does say something.  Garcia's (FL-25) people released a poll showing him 3 down today.  When that's the best you can do...

I agree that OH-01, OH-15, and MI-07 remain tossups. Kilroy suffers from lingering high negatives and Stivers is a strong candidate.  Chabot is a political Houdini -- but even he may not be able to pull his greatest act of all, surviving in this political climate. MI-07 is a pure tossup.  News that Garcia's own internal shows him down 3% is reason enough for me to bump that race down.

On other thought: the DCCC has expended nearly $1 million in AZ-01 and they put up a new ad today. Is Sydney Hay holding up better than Randy Graf did?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Ok, I understand now that you're saying how it will end up on election day.  Also, what is the deal with Mahoney?  Will he issue an apology ad?  Can that save him?

At this point, nothing can save him.  Do you not realize how brutally toxic his situation is?

[Lunar]

How long before he cancels his reelection bid?

[MarkWarner08]

Ok, I understand now that you're saying how it will end up on election day.  Also, what is the deal with Mahoney?  Will he issue an apology ad?  Can that save him?

At this point, nothing can save him.  Do you not realize how brutally toxic his situation is?

The GOP will likely pick up TX-22 and FL-16, two seats it only lost because of a series of unfortunate circumstances. Any gains for the GOP beyond those two seats will be impressive. At this point, I doubt the DCCC cares if  Mahoney hangs on.

[HardRCafé]

He and Vito Fossella should start a cover band together after the election.

[MarkWarner08]

How long before he cancels his reelection bid?

The ballots have already been printed. Any guesses on what % of the vote he pulls?

I'm guessing around 40%.

He and Vito Fossella should start a cover band together after the election.

Good one. Maybe they'll let in Tom DeLay and Bob Ney so they can form the "I f***ed my party's campaign committee" band.

[Nym90]

Ok, I understand now that you're saying how it will end up on election day.  Also, what is the deal with Mahoney?  Will he issue an apology ad?  Can that save him?

At this point, nothing can save him.  Do you not realize how brutally toxic his situation is?

What is it with FL-16 and sex scandals?