Sam Spade's 2008 Senate/House Election Prediction Thread (FINALIZED - SEE P.18)

[Sam Spade]

Updated, with Illinois CD rankings.

[MAS117]

Sam how come you don't have either NJ-3 or NJ-7 on your list for the House?

[jokerman]

With Huckabee out of the Senate race for sure, I think it's time to put Arkansas in the "safe" category.

[Sam Spade]

Sam how come you don't have either NJ-3 or NJ-7 on your list for the House?

Because New Jersey has not had its filing deadline yet (read above).  Even though, if the opponents become clear, I may rate it.  Part of the reason why I'm doing House races this way is that 1) I haven't had enough time to do all the seats; 2) People may still enter the races.

[Sam Spade]

With Huckabee out of the Senate race for sure, I think it's time to put Arkansas in the "safe" category.

As with the House races, I'm waiting until filing deadlines and playing it conservative till then, though I fully expect Arkansas to be in Safe before long.  I suspect Iowa, Michigan, Idaho, Nebraska and maybe Mississippi (depending on what happens there) to be on the list as well.  Probably not Texas, however

[Sam Spade]

Updated with Texas added in the House.

[minionofmidas]

Updated with Texas added in the House.

Calling Lampson a tossup might be being generous. Or maybe you're unimpressed with the Rep recruiting there? Are there any obvious favorites for the nomination among his half-a-score strong field of opponents?
Nice to hear you think Rodriguez is in as little danger as Bean.

[Sam Spade]

Updated with Texas added in the House.

Calling Lampson a tossup might be being generous. Or maybe you're unimpressed with the Rep recruiting there? Are there any obvious favorites for the nomination among his half-a-score strong field of opponents?

Much like Charlie Cook, I don't put anything in more than toss-up, until after primaries, at least, so don't read too much into that. 

Among the candidates, boy it could really be anyone.  But last time I heard, the conventional Republican decisionmakers liked Pete Olson, who was Cornyn's chief of staff.  He also raised $200,000 last quarter, which puts him in the serious category.

But it could be anyone...

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Uh, Rodriguez is not in as little danger as Bean.  Bean is only there because her opponents have money.  Moreover, they only appear so close, because other CDs have not entered the list. 

I was really ambivalent about placing this one in toss-up or Lean D, so consider it right on the edge.  FYI, before Larson entered, this one was in toss-up in my mind

In addition, the Republican primary will be brutal (Canseco has money) and I expect the white guy to come out on top.  Plus, my gut tells me that Larson won't connect as well with certain border towns, like Bonilla did.  But if the Republicans nominate someone who won't drag them down along the border, like McCain, it'll go into the middle of toss-up immediately.  And I know about how general Presidential election turnout disproportionately favors Republicans more than any other type of election in this CD, so...

[Mr.Phips]

Updated with Texas added in the House.

Calling Lampson a tossup might be being generous. Or maybe you're unimpressed with the Rep recruiting there? Are there any obvious favorites for the nomination among his half-a-score strong field of opponents?

Much like Charlie Cook, I don't put anything in more than toss-up, until after primaries, at least, so don't read too much into that. 

Among the candidates, boy it could really be anyone.  But last time I heard, the conventional Republican decisionmakers liked Pete Olson, who was Cornyn's chief of staff.  He also raised $200,000 last quarter, which puts him in the serious category.

But it could be anyone...

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Uh, Rodriguez is not in as little danger as Bean.  Bean is only there because her opponents have money.  Moreover, they only appear so close, because other CDs have not entered the list. 

I was really ambivalent about placing this one in toss-up or Lean D, so consider it right on the edge.  FYI, before Larson entered, this one was in toss-up in my mind

In addition, the Republican primary will be brutal (Canseco has money) and I expect the white guy to come out on top.  Plus, my gut tells me that Larson won't connect as well with certain border towns, like Bonilla did.  But if the Republicans nominate someone who won't drag them down along the border, like McCain, it'll go into the middle of toss-up immediately.  And I know about how general Presidential election turnout disproportionately favors Republicans more than any other type of election in this CD, so...

TX-23 is a lean Dem district with any Republican but Bush at the top of the ballot.  Just look at who has won the district under its current lines.  Landslide losers Ron Kirk in 2002 and Victor Morales in 1996 both carried this district. 

[Adlai Stevenson]

I do not think TX-22 should be under anything stronger than 'Toss-Up' either.  Its too early to start predicting the GOP can defeat Democratic incumbents yet, given the state the Republican Party is in, but regardless of that, the overall picture needs to become clearer. 

[Sam Spade]

I do not think TX-22 should be under anything stronger than 'Toss-Up' either.  Its too early to start predicting the GOP can defeat Democratic incumbents yet, given the state the Republican Party is in, but regardless of that, the overall picture needs to become clearer. 

In TX-22, any Republican will be favored over any Democrat in a Presidential general election, regardless of incumbency.  Unless maybe it's Gibbs, but I don't see her getting past 9 other challengers (a few of whom are quite strong) and a runoff to boot.  That CD is partisan heaven, and Republicans have the edge (eroding as it may be).  It's also one of the few CDs in Texas where I suspect the Bush numbers are quite accurate generically.  It stays in toss-up for now, but it'll be moved in the future (barring something strange)

OTOH, the TX-23 arguments will go on ad infinitum.  I expect them to continue on into the future.

[Mr.Phips]

I do not think TX-22 should be under anything stronger than 'Toss-Up' either.  Its too early to start predicting the GOP can defeat Democratic incumbents yet, given the state the Republican Party is in, but regardless of that, the overall picture needs to become clearer. 

In TX-22, any Republican will be favored over any Democrat in a Presidential general election, regardless of incumbency.  Unless maybe it's Gibbs, but I don't see her getting past 9 other challengers (a few of whom are quite strong) and a runoff to boot.  That CD is partisan heaven, and Republicans have the edge (eroding as it may be).  It's also one of the few CDs in Texas where I suspect the Bush numbers are quite accurate generically.  It stays in toss-up for now, but it'll be moved in the future (barring something strange)

OTOH, the TX-23 arguments will go on ad infinitum.  I expect them to continue on into the future.

I will agree with you on TX-22 for the most part, but I could not disagree more on TX-23.  There is no way that a district that is 65% Hispanic is going to favor a white Republican over a Democrat with the last name Rodriguez.  Larson may carry the Bexar county portion of the district, but Rodriguez will likely rack up huge margins in the Border counties to more than overcome that. 

[MarkWarner08]

Poor Chet Edwards -- forever on the "Watch List." Oh, the vicissitudes of life as a Southern Caucasian Democratic Congressman.

[Sam Spade]

Poor Chet Edwards -- forever on the "Watch List." Oh, the vicissitudes of life as a Southern Caucasian Democratic Congressman.

His opponent is a third-tier candidate who lost Republican primaries back in 2000 and 2002 to face Edwards.  I don't really consider him in any danger.  Of course, the Republican will probably get 40% just by being there, but that doesn't win elections.

[MarkWarner08]

Poor Chet Edwards -- forever on the "Watch List." Oh, the vicissitudes of life as a Southern Caucasian Democratic Congressman.

His opponent is a third-tier candidate who lost Republican primaries back in 2000 and 2002 to face Edwards.  I don't really consider him in any danger.  Of course, the Republican will probably get 40% just by being there, but that doesn't win elections.

I agree with your designation of his race.  If the Democrats retake the TX State House, he could be around till 2022. By then, Texas may finally become a two-party state.

[MarkWarner08]

Poor Chet Edwards -- forever on the "Watch List." Oh, the vicissitudes of life as a Southern Caucasian Democratic Congressman.

His opponent is a third-tier candidate who lost Republican primaries back in 2000 and 2002 to face Edwards.  I don't really consider him in any danger.  Of course, the Republican will probably get 40% just by being there, but that doesn't win elections.

Quick question: How come IL-06 is listed as "Likely Republican"? The Democrats had a colossal recruiting failure here. I'd take this race off the board.

[Sam Spade]

Poor Chet Edwards -- forever on the "Watch List." Oh, the vicissitudes of life as a Southern Caucasian Democratic Congressman.

His opponent is a third-tier candidate who lost Republican primaries back in 2000 and 2002 to face Edwards.  I don't really consider him in any danger.  Of course, the Republican will probably get 40% just by being there, but that doesn't win elections.

I agree with your designation of his race.  If the Democrats retake the TX State House, he could be around till 2022. By then, Texas may finally become a two-party state.

Remember though, that they would need to hold the House until after the 2010 elections in order to have any say so in designing maps.  And rural west Texas will likely be squeezed into fewer and fewer Congressional districts anyways.  Just something to keep in mind.

[Sam Spade]

Poor Chet Edwards -- forever on the "Watch List." Oh, the vicissitudes of life as a Southern Caucasian Democratic Congressman.

His opponent is a third-tier candidate who lost Republican primaries back in 2000 and 2002 to face Edwards.  I don't really consider him in any danger.  Of course, the Republican will probably get 40% just by being there, but that doesn't win elections.

Quick question: How come IL-06 is listed as "Likely Republican"? The Democrats had a colossal recruiting failure here. I'd take this race off the board.

The CD is not that Republican (margins are declining) and the incumbent is a first-term incumbent, which to me is the weakest kind.  I understand the candidate problems, but I will likely give some Dem takeovers in 2006 similar designations.

[Mr.Phips]

Poor Chet Edwards -- forever on the "Watch List." Oh, the vicissitudes of life as a Southern Caucasian Democratic Congressman.

His opponent is a third-tier candidate who lost Republican primaries back in 2000 and 2002 to face Edwards.  I don't really consider him in any danger.  Of course, the Republican will probably get 40% just by being there, but that doesn't win elections.

I agree with your designation of his race.  If the Democrats retake the TX State House, he could be around till 2022. By then, Texas may finally become a two-party state.

Remember though, that they would need to hold the House until after the 2010 elections in order to have any say so in designing maps.  And rural west Texas will likely be squeezed into fewer and fewer Congressional districts anyways.  Just something to keep in mind.

If Democrats can get the state House for the 2012 redistricting, a few significant changes are likely to happen.  First, Republicans are not going to be allowed to split the Democratic base in Tarrant county between four different districts.  A fair district will likely be created that inculdes all of Fort Worth(including its blacks which Republicans also split pretty thin).  This district would likely elect a Democrat.  Then Democrats will likely force Republicans to create fairer distrist in Dallas.  This would likely require linedrawers to "unpack" some minority voters that are segregated into the TX-30 in order to keep them from having any significant influence in nearby districts.  

[Sam Spade]

Poor Chet Edwards -- forever on the "Watch List." Oh, the vicissitudes of life as a Southern Caucasian Democratic Congressman.

His opponent is a third-tier candidate who lost Republican primaries back in 2000 and 2002 to face Edwards.  I don't really consider him in any danger.  Of course, the Republican will probably get 40% just by being there, but that doesn't win elections.

I agree with your designation of his race.  If the Democrats retake the TX State House, he could be around till 2022. By then, Texas may finally become a two-party state.

Remember though, that they would need to hold the House until after the 2010 elections in order to have any say so in designing maps.  And rural west Texas will likely be squeezed into fewer and fewer Congressional districts anyways.  Just something to keep in mind.

If Democrats can get the state House for the 2012 redistricting, a few significant changes are likely to happen.  First, Republicans are not going to be allowed to split the Democratic base in Tarrant county between four different districts.  A fair district will likely be created that inculdes all of Fort Worth(including its blacks which Republicans also split pretty thin).  This district would likely elect a Democrat.  Then Democrats will likely force Republicans to create fairer distrist in Dallas.  This would likely require linedrawers to "unpack" some minority voters that are segregated into the TX-30 in order to keep them from having any significant influence in nearby districts.  

Don't disagree, though some compromise may be worked out in that situation, especially considering where the new CDs are going to be.

[Mr.Phips]

Poor Chet Edwards -- forever on the "Watch List." Oh, the vicissitudes of life as a Southern Caucasian Democratic Congressman.

His opponent is a third-tier candidate who lost Republican primaries back in 2000 and 2002 to face Edwards.  I don't really consider him in any danger.  Of course, the Republican will probably get 40% just by being there, but that doesn't win elections.

I agree with your designation of his race.  If the Democrats retake the TX State House, he could be around till 2022. By then, Texas may finally become a two-party state.

Remember though, that they would need to hold the House until after the 2010 elections in order to have any say so in designing maps.  And rural west Texas will likely be squeezed into fewer and fewer Congressional districts anyways.  Just something to keep in mind.

If Democrats can get the state House for the 2012 redistricting, a few significant changes are likely to happen.  First, Republicans are not going to be allowed to split the Democratic base in Tarrant county between four different districts.  A fair district will likely be created that inculdes all of Fort Worth(including its blacks which Republicans also split pretty thin).  This district would likely elect a Democrat.  Then Democrats will likely force Republicans to create fairer distrist in Dallas.  This would likely require linedrawers to "unpack" some minority voters that are segregated into the TX-30 in order to keep them from having any significant influence in nearby districts.  

Don't disagree, though some compromise may be worked out in that situation, especially considering where the new CDs are going to be.

Republicans will likely get the new districts, while Democrats would be given a shot at some of the existing districts as Republican territory is pared away to create new ones. 

[Adlai Stevenson]

Poor Chet Edwards -- forever on the "Watch List." Oh, the vicissitudes of life as a Southern Caucasian Democratic Congressman.

His opponent is a third-tier candidate who lost Republican primaries back in 2000 and 2002 to face Edwards.  I don't really consider him in any danger.  Of course, the Republican will probably get 40% just by being there, but that doesn't win elections.

I agree with your designation of his race.  If the Democrats retake the TX State House, he could be around till 2022. By then, Texas may finally become a two-party state.

Remember though, that they would need to hold the House until after the 2010 elections in order to have any say so in designing maps.  And rural west Texas will likely be squeezed into fewer and fewer Congressional districts anyways.  Just something to keep in mind.

If Democrats can get the state House for the 2012 redistricting, a few significant changes are likely to happen.  First, Republicans are not going to be allowed to split the Democratic base in Tarrant county between four different districts.  A fair district will likely be created that inculdes all of Fort Worth(including its blacks which Republicans also split pretty thin).  This district would likely elect a Democrat.  Then Democrats will likely force Republicans to create fairer distrist in Dallas.  This would likely require linedrawers to "unpack" some minority voters that are segregated into the TX-30 in order to keep them from having any significant influence in nearby districts. 

Don't disagree, though some compromise may be worked out in that situation, especially considering where the new CDs are going to be.

Republicans will likely get the new districts, while Democrats would be given a shot at some of the existing districts as Republican territory is pared away to create new ones. 

Some of the Dallas-area Republicans could be threatened, like Pete Sessions.  They were reduced to below 60% of the vote in 2006, and Bush lost ground in this area in 2004.  It was traditionally Republican-terain that elected his father to the House in 1966 - wealthy, white suburban and urban voters who care more about a candidate's economic than social values.  In the next few years perhaps the right kind of Democratic candidate could stage a comeback to win here - someone with Clintonesque economic virtues. 

[Sam Spade]

Poor Chet Edwards -- forever on the "Watch List." Oh, the vicissitudes of life as a Southern Caucasian Democratic Congressman.

His opponent is a third-tier candidate who lost Republican primaries back in 2000 and 2002 to face Edwards.  I don't really consider him in any danger.  Of course, the Republican will probably get 40% just by being there, but that doesn't win elections.

I agree with your designation of his race.  If the Democrats retake the TX State House, he could be around till 2022. By then, Texas may finally become a two-party state.

Remember though, that they would need to hold the House until after the 2010 elections in order to have any say so in designing maps.  And rural west Texas will likely be squeezed into fewer and fewer Congressional districts anyways.  Just something to keep in mind.

If Democrats can get the state House for the 2012 redistricting, a few significant changes are likely to happen.  First, Republicans are not going to be allowed to split the Democratic base in Tarrant county between four different districts.  A fair district will likely be created that inculdes all of Fort Worth(including its blacks which Republicans also split pretty thin).  This district would likely elect a Democrat.  Then Democrats will likely force Republicans to create fairer distrist in Dallas.  This would likely require linedrawers to "unpack" some minority voters that are segregated into the TX-30 in order to keep them from having any significant influence in nearby districts. 

Don't disagree, though some compromise may be worked out in that situation, especially considering where the new CDs are going to be.

Republicans will likely get the new districts, while Democrats would be given a shot at some of the existing districts as Republican territory is pared away to create new ones. 

Some of the Dallas-area Republicans could be threatened, like Pete Sessions.  They were reduced to below 60% of the vote in 2006, and Bush lost ground in this area in 2004.  It was traditionally Republican-terain that elected his father to the House in 1966 - wealthy, white suburban and urban voters who care more about a candidate's economic than social values.  In the next few years perhaps the right kind of Democratic candidate could stage a comeback to win here - someone with Clintonesque economic virtues. 

It's an interesting conversation, but a lot depends on whether Democrats can take control of the House or the Governorship in 2010 (Senate control changeover is nil for a number of reasons).  Because if the Republicans have control of all three branches, they will deal with things in such a way that will not be pretty to Democrats, except to probably try and feed another CD to the Hispanics (not to mention trigger more lawsuits).

[Torie]

Sam Spade, I read Baker of Louisiana is retiring, which might create some play.

[Sam Spade]

Sam Spade, I read Baker of Louisiana is retiring, which might create some play.

Possibly.  I hear the Dems have a good conservative Dem candidate down there and I don't know whether we still have any idea the composition of the CD after Katrina.  Of course, Louisiana is one of the few states in the Union right now that I suspect has no anti-GOP trend at present and I suspect will have little in 2008.

I've only really gotten a chance to get to Illinois and Texas House seats for the moment (because the filing deadlines are past) - but the rest of it will be up soon, probably after February 5.