Sam Spade's 2008 Senate/House Election Prediction Thread (FINALIZED - SEE P.18)

[MAS117]

I would put NJ-7 into Toss-Up definitely.

[Sam Spade]

I would put NJ-7 into Toss-Up definitely.

Not with Lance as the candidate and the history of that area. 

In fact, it would be below NM-01, the other marginal open seat where Republicans have a strong advantage based on the particulars (excluding IL-18 of course), but-for Stender's cash advantage at present.

But if my opinion changes or the situation changes, rest assured the ranking will.  It's only the end of June, quite early in these types of races.

[Dan the Roman]

Good list. I know it is a small change but I have better feeling about the democrats prospects in Ohio 16 than in 15. I think the candidate line-up there is much better for them.

Also I think Chris Murphy is much safer than listed. He won by 12 points over the woman who based on past results was arguably the toughest Republican in the northeast, despite being vastly outspent. Yes the district was close in 2004, but this is precisely the type of northeastern seat where Obama will play well, and Murphy has a massive COH advantage over Capiello who would have been a decent candidate in 2002, but has no shot in 2008. I think it will be at least 15 points probably more.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Don't you think NC-8 belongs in the Toss-Up category?  In 2006, Kissell lost by just 329 votes.  This year, he will have Obama behind in a district that is 27% black and that Kerry managed to get 45% in.  I could see both Obama and Kissell carrying NC-8 with about 50% of the vote easily.

[Sam Spade]

Good list. I know it is a small change but I have better feeling about the democrats prospects in Ohio 16 than in 15. I think the candidate line-up there is much better for them.

Time will tell.  Quite frankly, I consider all contenders to these two seats to be quite legit.  Moreover, both candidates have raised enough funds to be considered credible (which is really a key point this early in the campaign).  The difference therefore, is the CD itself (one is about four-five points more Republican in the PVI than the other).  Thus, the ranking - but note where both are.  At this point in the election, it is impossible to say more.

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Freshman Rep.  District leans slightly Dem, but is marginal.  Challenger is an "A"-type challenger (compare that to a lot of the seats below him or on the watch list).

Any Obama "coattails" are only noted in two places for me (until we get much closer to the election):  1) Illinois; 2) open CD's with high black populations.  Everything else is merely wishful thinking right now, imho.  There also may be a bit of reverse coattail in highly HIspanic CDs due to turnout issues, but we're not there yet to taking that into account.  Otherwise TX-23 would be higher.

[Sam Spade]

Don't you think NC-8 belongs in the Toss-Up category?  In 2006, Kissell lost by just 329 votes.  This year, he will have Obama behind in a district that is 27% black and that Kerry managed to get 45% in.  I could see both Obama and Kissell carrying NC-8 with about 50% of the vote easily.

Ya, but Kissell was one of those candidates in one of those CDs that was seriously helped by the wave - to the tune of probably about 5 points (the wave was particularly strong in that area of the world).

Historically, Hayes is one of these candidates that gets into trouble when he gets complacent - like in 2006.  I don't see him being complacent this year.

Anyway, black turnout is only part of the equation.  If I didn't think black turnout would be higher, Kissell would be lower.  We shall see.  But note where Kissell is - the distinctions between the bottom of toss-up and Lean R/D at this point in the campaign are not "that" great. 

[Conan]

I would put NJ-7 into Toss-Up definitely.

Not with Lance as the candidate and the history of that area. 

In fact, it would be below NM-01, the other marginal open seat where Republicans have a strong advantage based on the particulars (excluding IL-18 of course), but-for Stender's cash advantage at present.

But if my opinion changes or the situation changes, rest assured the ranking will.  It's only the end of June, quite early in these types of races.

NJ-7 is a toss up in my book. Stender will outspend Lance, probably by a lot. Also, look at the history. It's a trending dem district and is only slightly republican. Plus, this is 2008, which looks to be a strong dem year, and this is NJ. At most it's barely lean Lance.

[Spaghetti Cat]

I would put NJ-7 into Toss-Up definitely.

Not with Lance as the candidate and the history of that area. 

In fact, it would be below NM-01, the other marginal open seat where Republicans have a strong advantage based on the particulars (excluding IL-18 of course), but-for Stender's cash advantage at present.

But if my opinion changes or the situation changes, rest assured the ranking will.  It's only the end of June, quite early in these types of races.

NJ-7 is a toss up in my book. Stender will outspend Lance, probably by a lot. Also, look at the history. It's a trending dem district and is only slightly republican. Plus, this is 2008, which looks to be a strong dem year, and this is NJ. At most it's barely lean Lance.

But she didnt win in 2006, which was a worse year for Republicans than 2008 will be, and I can guarentee you that.

[Brittain33]

But she didnt win in 2006, which was a worse year for Republicans than 2008 will be, and I can guarentee you that.

You can not guarantee 2008 won't be as bad as 2006 was, both as a whole and in the case of this seat. For one, Republicans are no longer defending a majority with ample funds, but are a fractured minority without the money to compete with the Democrats. For two, the top-of-the-ticket dynamic favors Democrats in a Presidential election in N.J. For three, it's now an open seat, and not an incumbent defense. Some people have argued this cuts both ways with Ferguson, but that's a challenging case to make.

Whatever else, we can all agree that you can't draw a straight line from '06 to '08 and say '08 will be better for Republicans, so any Democrat who didn't win last time is S.O.L.

[Spaghetti Cat]

No it doesn't mean she can't win, but it doesn't mean you put in the "leans gop" category either.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Dick Zimmer being on the ballot should likely help Lance.  They have the same key base, and so both should be relentlessly targeting the same voters.

And you do have to remember that Stender's near miss in 2006 was more due to Foley than anything else.  (Specifically, the relevance it gave Ferguson's Washington DC bar scandal.)

[Conan]

Dick Zimmer being on the ballot should likely help Lance.  They have the same key base, and so both should be relentlessly targeting the same voters.

And you do have to remember that Stender's near miss in 2006 was more due to Foley than anything else.  (Specifically, the relevance it gave Ferguson's Washington DC bar scandal.)

That is ridiculous. Completely nothing to do with Foley and there's nothing to suggest that. Her near miss was because the district is about 50/50 and she was a well funded candidate. There's really no stronger explanation. We shouldn't ignore the most simplest of facts.

Let's also get straight that yes, the district has been lean GOP for quite some time. Lance is a good candidate for the district. I happen to believe it's a toss-up and lean Lance at Best. Also, Stender isn't even the best candidate the dems could get for this district.

I happen to think that her fundraising, Lance's so far lack of, the timing, the marginal demographics of the district, and Obama will carry her over.  Obama did his best in the counties (except Middlesex) that make up this district in the primary. (Haven't specifically looked up the district though)

[MarkWarner08]

Sam Spade, plaudits for compiling a solid House race list. I have only a few disagreements. First, why do you rank CT-05 above the two vulnerable Arizona Democratic freshmen. The GOP candidate against Chris Murphy has underperformed in fundraising and has been chastised by local Republicans for his weak campaign operation. While Giffords is a rising star in the Democratic Party, she'll face the toughest challenge of her career against State Senate President Tim Bee, who will try to ride the McCain coattails to victory.

Second, I'd place CT-04 higher than NM-01. We both know that Heinrich is a weak Democratic candidate who is handicapped by race and lack of political experience. Sheriff White is a top-notch contender, someone who probably could've held this seat in 2006 for the GOP.  In CT-04, we have a Democratic contender who is a perfect fit for this district. Himes is a Harvard-educated Wall-Street millionaire turned do-gooder who volunteered in the poor precincts of this district. Himes has drawn on his extensive list of wealth contacts to nearly match Shays' fundraising.  Unlike the Farrell, who was allergic to door-to-door comapaigning, Himes is a campaign-aholic, someone who will knock on enough doors to enough victories. He simply can't be outworked.

He's also quite impressive on the stump. I remember reading an article with quotes from voters saying that he, not Obama and Clinton, should be the Democratic POTUS nominee. He's a policy wonk with a charisma, a compassionate politician with connections to big money, and he'll have the full backing of the DCCC. With Obama expected to carry this district by 5-10 points, I'd peg Himes as a slight favorite. This is one race where if I had to bet today, I'd go agaisnt the conventional wisdom and pick a Himes upset.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Policy wonks have a heck of a lot of trouble winning heated elections, I find.

[MarkWarner08]

Policy wonks have a heck of a lot of trouble winning heated elections, I find.

Yes, but he's a policy wonk with a rare ability to distill complicated concepts into short sound bites. In one of his campaign events, he successfully explained the need for AMT reform to a group of senior citizens. Any politician who can explain tax policy to the Social Security crowd is truly gifted.

[Sam Spade]

Your points on CT-05 and CT-04 are quite valid, although Shays will be hard to oust.  I seriously thought about putting AZ-08 higher myself, but I decided not to. 

I don't know whether White would have won in 2006 - would he have been able to get Madrid to crack for the ad Wilson got - probably not.  And otherwise overcome the wave.  If there's one CD where that might occur - it's here, but consider me ambivalent.  I should not that Novak rated this race Lean D because not having Wilson on the top might not get the requisite turnout on the East Side.  Doesn't he realize that White was the head of the Republican effort here in 2004?  Just a side comment.

Really, with a lot of these Lean Rs/Lean Ds, it's more about gauging where they should fall rather than getting it *exactly* right.

The only minor changes I might make right now as to the list since creating it is to push Sali up to the bottom of Lean R and bump Hill down a little bit within Lean D  (at least below Mitchell, maybe below Ciro).

[AndrewTX]

Sam Spade, plaudits for compiling a solid House race list. I have only a few disagreements. First, why do you rank CT-05 above the two vulnerable Arizona Democratic freshmen. The GOP candidate against Chris Murphy has underperformed in fundraising and has been chastised by local Republicans for his weak campaign operation. While Giffords is a rising star in the Democratic Party, she'll face the toughest challenge of her career against State Senate President Tim Bee, who will try to ride the McCain coattails to victory.

Second, I'd place CT-04 higher than NM-01. We both know that Heinrich is a weak Democratic candidate who is handicapped by race and lack of political experience. Sheriff White is a top-notch contender, someone who probably could've held this seat in 2006 for the GOP.  In CT-04, we have a Democratic contender who is a perfect fit for this district. Himes is a Harvard-educated Wall-Street millionaire turned do-gooder who volunteered in the poor precincts of this district. Himes has drawn on his extensive list of wealth contacts to nearly match Shays' fundraising.  Unlike the Farrell, who was allergic to door-to-door comapaigning, Himes is a campaign-aholic, someone who will knock on enough doors to enough victories. He simply can't be outworked.

He's also quite impressive on the stump. I remember reading an article with quotes from voters saying that he, not Obama and Clinton, should be the Democratic POTUS nominee. He's a policy wonk with a charisma, a compassionate politician with connections to big money, and he'll have the full backing of the DCCC. With Obama expected to carry this district by 5-10 points, I'd peg Himes as a slight favorite. This is one race where if I had to bet today, I'd go agaisnt the conventional wisdom and pick a Himes upset.

Pst, I have news for you. Himes isn't doing anything. He has a few horrible commericials, one of which is where his old teachers endorse him, and call him "Jimmy". Also, whatsherface got enough signatures to force a primary, so he'll have to wait a bit more before he can go after Chris.

 I say Chris wins this one with 52%-54%

[MarkWarner08]

Sam Spade, plaudits for compiling a solid House race list. I have only a few disagreements. First, why do you rank CT-05 above the two vulnerable Arizona Democratic freshmen. The GOP candidate against Chris Murphy has underperformed in fundraising and has been chastised by local Republicans for his weak campaign operation. While Giffords is a rising star in the Democratic Party, she'll face the toughest challenge of her career against State Senate President Tim Bee, who will try to ride the McCain coattails to victory.

Second, I'd place CT-04 higher than NM-01. We both know that Heinrich is a weak Democratic candidate who is handicapped by race and lack of political experience. Sheriff White is a top-notch contender, someone who probably could've held this seat in 2006 for the GOP.  In CT-04, we have a Democratic contender who is a perfect fit for this district. Himes is a Harvard-educated Wall-Street millionaire turned do-gooder who volunteered in the poor precincts of this district. Himes has drawn on his extensive list of wealth contacts to nearly match Shays' fundraising.  Unlike the Farrell, who was allergic to door-to-door comapaigning, Himes is a campaign-aholic, someone who will knock on enough doors to enough victories. He simply can't be outworked.

He's also quite impressive on the stump. I remember reading an article with quotes from voters saying that he, not Obama and Clinton, should be the Democratic POTUS nominee. He's a policy wonk with a charisma, a compassionate politician with connections to big money, and he'll have the full backing of the DCCC. With Obama expected to carry this district by 5-10 points, I'd peg Himes as a slight favorite. This is one race where if I had to bet today, I'd go agaisnt the conventional wisdom and pick a Himes upset.

Pst, I have news for you. Himes isn't doing anything. He has a few horrible commericials, one of which is where his old teachers endorse him, and call him "Jimmy". Also, whatsherface got enough signatures to force a primary, so he'll have to wait a bit more before he can go after Chris.

 I say Chris wins this one with 52%-54%

Yes, Himes isn't doing anything, except matching Shays nearly dollar for dollar in fundraising, campaigning all across the district, all while investing in a solid GOTV operation. You might no like Himes introductory ads, but they're effective in defining the candidate before the Shays money machine can.

Do really think Himes will fall short of Diane "What's retail politics" Farrell' showing? Part of why Farrell underperformed in '06 was due to the decreased Bridgeport turnout. Obama will help Himes in that area. If Shays wins, it'll be a 51-49 win, not a 54-46 win.

[Conan]

Sam Spade, plaudits for compiling a solid House race list. I have only a few disagreements. First, why do you rank CT-05 above the two vulnerable Arizona Democratic freshmen. The GOP candidate against Chris Murphy has underperformed in fundraising and has been chastised by local Republicans for his weak campaign operation. While Giffords is a rising star in the Democratic Party, she'll face the toughest challenge of her career against State Senate President Tim Bee, who will try to ride the McCain coattails to victory.

Second, I'd place CT-04 higher than NM-01. We both know that Heinrich is a weak Democratic candidate who is handicapped by race and lack of political experience. Sheriff White is a top-notch contender, someone who probably could've held this seat in 2006 for the GOP.  In CT-04, we have a Democratic contender who is a perfect fit for this district. Himes is a Harvard-educated Wall-Street millionaire turned do-gooder who volunteered in the poor precincts of this district. Himes has drawn on his extensive list of wealth contacts to nearly match Shays' fundraising.  Unlike the Farrell, who was allergic to door-to-door comapaigning, Himes is a campaign-aholic, someone who will knock on enough doors to enough victories. He simply can't be outworked.

He's also quite impressive on the stump. I remember reading an article with quotes from voters saying that he, not Obama and Clinton, should be the Democratic POTUS nominee. He's a policy wonk with a charisma, a compassionate politician with connections to big money, and he'll have the full backing of the DCCC. With Obama expected to carry this district by 5-10 points, I'd peg Himes as a slight favorite. This is one race where if I had to bet today, I'd go agaisnt the conventional wisdom and pick a Himes upset.

Pst, I have news for you. Himes isn't doing anything. He has a few horrible commericials, one of which is where his old teachers endorse him, and call him "Jimmy". Also, whatsherface got enough signatures to force a primary, so he'll have to wait a bit more before he can go after Chris.

 I say Chris wins this one with 52%-54%

Yes, Himes isn't doing anything, except matching Shays nearly dollar for dollar in fundraising, campaigning all across the district, all while investing in a solid GOTV operation. You might no like Himes introductory ads, but they're effective in defining the candidate before the Shays money machine can.

Do really think Himes will fall short of Diane "What's retail politics" Farrell' showing? Part of why Farrell underperformed in '06 was due to the decreased Bridgeport turnout. Obama will help Himes in that area. If Shays wins, it'll be a 51-49 win, not a 54-46 win.

I'd also like to note Himes' GoldmanSachs touch. Goldmans never lose.

[Sam Spade]

Updated.

[AndrewTX]

Sam Spade, plaudits for compiling a solid House race list. I have only a few disagreements. First, why do you rank CT-05 above the two vulnerable Arizona Democratic freshmen. The GOP candidate against Chris Murphy has underperformed in fundraising and has been chastised by local Republicans for his weak campaign operation. While Giffords is a rising star in the Democratic Party, she'll face the toughest challenge of her career against State Senate President Tim Bee, who will try to ride the McCain coattails to victory.

Second, I'd place CT-04 higher than NM-01. We both know that Heinrich is a weak Democratic candidate who is handicapped by race and lack of political experience. Sheriff White is a top-notch contender, someone who probably could've held this seat in 2006 for the GOP.  In CT-04, we have a Democratic contender who is a perfect fit for this district. Himes is a Harvard-educated Wall-Street millionaire turned do-gooder who volunteered in the poor precincts of this district. Himes has drawn on his extensive list of wealth contacts to nearly match Shays' fundraising.  Unlike the Farrell, who was allergic to door-to-door comapaigning, Himes is a campaign-aholic, someone who will knock on enough doors to enough victories. He simply can't be outworked.

He's also quite impressive on the stump. I remember reading an article with quotes from voters saying that he, not Obama and Clinton, should be the Democratic POTUS nominee. He's a policy wonk with a charisma, a compassionate politician with connections to big money, and he'll have the full backing of the DCCC. With Obama expected to carry this district by 5-10 points, I'd peg Himes as a slight favorite. This is one race where if I had to bet today, I'd go agaisnt the conventional wisdom and pick a Himes upset.

Pst, I have news for you. Himes isn't doing anything. He has a few horrible commericials, one of which is where his old teachers endorse him, and call him "Jimmy". Also, whatsherface got enough signatures to force a primary, so he'll have to wait a bit more before he can go after Chris.

 I say Chris wins this one with 52%-54%

Yes, Himes isn't doing anything, except matching Shays nearly dollar for dollar in fundraising, campaigning all across the district, all while investing in a solid GOTV operation. You might no like Himes introductory ads, but they're effective in defining the candidate before the Shays money machine can.

Do really think Himes will fall short of Diane "What's retail politics" Farrell' showing? Part of why Farrell underperformed in '06 was due to the decreased Bridgeport turnout. Obama will help Himes in that area. If Shays wins, it'll be a 51-49 win, not a 54-46 win.

I'm considering mainly the fact that in 2004 and 2006, you saw Diane Farrell everywhere this time of year. Most of the people I know dont even know who Jim Himes is, which isnt a very good thing for the democrats in the district.

[Spaghetti Cat]

Politico had this poll (http://www.politico.com/blogs/thecrypt/0608/Poll_shows_Schmidt_vulnerable.html) that has Schmidt in a questionable position.  I'm not sure if I'd keep her in Potentially Competative or move her down to Likely Republican.

[HardRCafé]

I'd also like to note Himes' GoldmanSachs touch. Goldmans never lose.

Jack Ryan?

[Conan]

I'd also like to note Himes' GoldmanSachs touch. Goldmans never lose.

Jack Ryan?

He won the primary...never lost an election.

[HardRCafé]

Bob Torricelli went out with an unblemished record, too, right?