Sam Spade's 2008 Senate/House Election Prediction Thread (FINALIZED - SEE P.18)

[Sam Spade]

Senate/House Rankings
Senate

Safe D
Arkansas
Colorado (R)*
Delaware
Illinois
Iowa
Massachusetts
Michigan
Montana
New Jersey
New Mexico (R)*
Rhode Island
South Dakota
Virginia (R)*
West Virginia

Lean D
Alaska (R)
Oregon (R)
New Hampshire (R)
Louisiana

Toss-up
Minnesota (R)
North Carolina (R)

Lean R
Georgia
Mississippi #2 - Wicker
Kentucky

Safe R
Alabama
Idaho*
Kansas
Maine
Mississippi #1 - Cochran
Nebraska*
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Wyoming #1 - Barrasso
Wyoming #2 - Enzi
House

DEM Pickup List

Likely D
1. NY-13* (Fossella)
2. NY-25* (Walsh)

Lean D
3. VA-11* (Davis)
4. FL-24 (Feeney)
5. OH-16* (Regula)
6. CO-04 (Musgrave)
7. AZ-01* (Renzi)
8. IL-11* (Weller)

Toss-up/Lean D NOT COMPLETE BELOW HERE
9. FL-08 (Keller)
24. NM-02* (Pearce)
11. NJ-03* (Saxton)
12. NM-01* (Wilson)
13. OH-15* (Pryce)
14. AK-AL (Young)


Toss-up
9. NC-08 (Hayes)
8. NV-03 (Porter)

16. PA-03 (English)
17. NY-29 (Kuhl)
18. MI-09 (Knollenberg)
15. MN-03* (Ramstad)
[dividing line]
19. MI-07 (Walberg)
21. CT-04 (Shays)
22. OH-01 (Chabot)

Toss-up/Lean R
23. NJ-07* (Ferguson)

25. LA-04* (McCrery)
26. WA-08 (Reichert)
27. IL-10 (Kirk)
28. MD-01* (Gilchrest)
29. FL-21 (L. Diaz-Balart)

Lean R
30. NY-26* (Reynolds)
31. AZ-03 (Shadegg)
32. AL-02* (Everett)
33. MO-09* (Hulshof)
34. CA-04* (Doolittle)
35. KY-02* (Lewis)
36. MO-06 (Graves)
37. IN-03 (Souder)
38. ID-01 (Sali)
39. MN-06 (Bachmann)
40. NE-02 (Terry)

Likely R
41. FL-25 (M. Diaz-Balart)
42. OH-02 (Schmidt)
43. NV-02 (Heller)
44. VA-02 (Drake)
45. WY-AL* (Cubin)
46. FL-13 (Buchanan)
47. WV-02 (Capito)
48. IA-04 (Latham)
49. TX-07 (Culberson)
50. PA-15 (Dent)

Watch List (up to 65)
AL-03 (Rogers)
CA-03 (Lungren)
CA-46 (Rohrabacher)
CA-50 (Bilbray)
IL-06 (Roskam)
IL-18* (LaHood)
LA-07 (Boustany)
NJ-05 (Garrett)
OH-07* (Hobson)
OH-14 (LaTourette)
PA-06 (Gerlach)
SC-01 (Brown)
TX-10 (McCaul)
VA-05 (Goode)
VA-10 (Wolf)

GOP Pickup List

Likely R
1. FL-16 (Mahoney)

Toss-up/Lean R
2. TX-22 (Lampson)
3. PA-11 (Kanjorski)

Pure Toss-up
4. KS-02 (Boyda)
5. LA-06 (Cazayoux)
dividing line
6. NH-01 (Shea-Porter)
7. AL-05* (Cramer)

Toss-up/Lean D
8. PA-10 (Carney)
9. GA-08 (Marshall)
10. WI-08 (Kagen)

Lean D
11. IN-09 (Hill)
12. TX-23 (Rodriguez)
13. PA-04 (Altmire)
14. NY-20 (Gillibrand)
15. CT-05 (Murphy)

Likely D
16. AZ-08 (Giffords)
17. AZ-05 (Mitchell)
18. KS-03 (Moore)
19. KY-03 (Yarmuth)
20. OR-05* (Hooley)
21. CA-11 (McNerney)
22. PA-08 (Murphy)
23. NH-02 (Hodes)
24. MS-01 (Childers)
25. MN-01 (Walz)

Watch List (up to 35)
CT-02 (Courtney)
IL-08 (Bean)
IL-14 (Foster)
IN-08 (Ellsworth)
ME-01* (Allen)
NC-11 (Shuler)
NY-19 (Hall)
NY-24 (Arcuri)
OH-18 (Space)
UT-02 (Matheson)

[Sam Spade]

Kinda surprised this thread hasn't got more action - predictions too reasonable, perhaps??? 

Bumping anyway.

[Sam Spade]

Nlm, I do take opinions by Cook (when he updates), Rothenberg, Cilizza (less so) and a couple of others into account when making my rankings, but thanks for posting it anyway.

[Sam Spade]

Conan:

Texas and Georgia should be safe, but I always play it more cautious coming out of the gate.

NH will be Lean D with Shaheen, sorry we disagree.  Too early to put anything in the Likely part of the other team's column unless an open seat.

MN may be tossup eventually, but it certainly not tossup now.

[Sam Spade]

If Norm Coleman could barely beat a politician with cob-webbed political skills (Walter Mondale) in the most pro-Republican year since 1994, how can he possibly be secure in 2008?

You sidestep the fact Mondale had never lost anything in Minnesota and was never expected to.

I get your point, but thanks for trying to be funny anyways. 

[Sam Spade]

Based on events of the past week, I have updated my Senate list.

[Sam Spade]

why do you think Warner v Davis would be only lean D?

B/c it's Virginia, which last time I checked is still considered a lean R state at the Prez level.  Warner would cut into Davis in rural Virginia.  Davis would cut into Warner in suburban Virginia.

[Sam Spade]

Updated

[Sam Spade]

Updated

Great to see you're keeping tabs on these races. If I had more time (ie lighter course load), I'd post my House and Senate predictions. Oh, well, I guess I'll wait till Thanksgiving break.

Well, I haven't done a thing about the House races myself, but I figure that the House races are still fairly fluid in many respects (challengers still likely to enter now).

[Sam Spade]

Updated, with Illinois CD rankings.

[Sam Spade]

Sam how come you don't have either NJ-3 or NJ-7 on your list for the House?

Because New Jersey has not had its filing deadline yet (read above).  Even though, if the opponents become clear, I may rate it.  Part of the reason why I'm doing House races this way is that 1) I haven't had enough time to do all the seats; 2) People may still enter the races.

[Sam Spade]

With Huckabee out of the Senate race for sure, I think it's time to put Arkansas in the "safe" category.

As with the House races, I'm waiting until filing deadlines and playing it conservative till then, though I fully expect Arkansas to be in Safe before long.  I suspect Iowa, Michigan, Idaho, Nebraska and maybe Mississippi (depending on what happens there) to be on the list as well.  Probably not Texas, however

[Sam Spade]

Updated with Texas added in the House.

[Sam Spade]

Updated with Texas added in the House.

Calling Lampson a tossup might be being generous. Or maybe you're unimpressed with the Rep recruiting there? Are there any obvious favorites for the nomination among his half-a-score strong field of opponents?

Much like Charlie Cook, I don't put anything in more than toss-up, until after primaries, at least, so don't read too much into that. 

Among the candidates, boy it could really be anyone.  But last time I heard, the conventional Republican decisionmakers liked Pete Olson, who was Cornyn's chief of staff.  He also raised $200,000 last quarter, which puts him in the serious category.

But it could be anyone...

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Uh, Rodriguez is not in as little danger as Bean.  Bean is only there because her opponents have money.  Moreover, they only appear so close, because other CDs have not entered the list. 

I was really ambivalent about placing this one in toss-up or Lean D, so consider it right on the edge.  FYI, before Larson entered, this one was in toss-up in my mind

In addition, the Republican primary will be brutal (Canseco has money) and I expect the white guy to come out on top.  Plus, my gut tells me that Larson won't connect as well with certain border towns, like Bonilla did.  But if the Republicans nominate someone who won't drag them down along the border, like McCain, it'll go into the middle of toss-up immediately.  And I know about how general Presidential election turnout disproportionately favors Republicans more than any other type of election in this CD, so...

[Sam Spade]

I do not think TX-22 should be under anything stronger than 'Toss-Up' either.  Its too early to start predicting the GOP can defeat Democratic incumbents yet, given the state the Republican Party is in, but regardless of that, the overall picture needs to become clearer. 

In TX-22, any Republican will be favored over any Democrat in a Presidential general election, regardless of incumbency.  Unless maybe it's Gibbs, but I don't see her getting past 9 other challengers (a few of whom are quite strong) and a runoff to boot.  That CD is partisan heaven, and Republicans have the edge (eroding as it may be).  It's also one of the few CDs in Texas where I suspect the Bush numbers are quite accurate generically.  It stays in toss-up for now, but it'll be moved in the future (barring something strange)

OTOH, the TX-23 arguments will go on ad infinitum.  I expect them to continue on into the future.

[Sam Spade]

Poor Chet Edwards -- forever on the "Watch List." Oh, the vicissitudes of life as a Southern Caucasian Democratic Congressman.

His opponent is a third-tier candidate who lost Republican primaries back in 2000 and 2002 to face Edwards.  I don't really consider him in any danger.  Of course, the Republican will probably get 40% just by being there, but that doesn't win elections.

[Sam Spade]

Poor Chet Edwards -- forever on the "Watch List." Oh, the vicissitudes of life as a Southern Caucasian Democratic Congressman.

His opponent is a third-tier candidate who lost Republican primaries back in 2000 and 2002 to face Edwards.  I don't really consider him in any danger.  Of course, the Republican will probably get 40% just by being there, but that doesn't win elections.

I agree with your designation of his race.  If the Democrats retake the TX State House, he could be around till 2022. By then, Texas may finally become a two-party state.

Remember though, that they would need to hold the House until after the 2010 elections in order to have any say so in designing maps.  And rural west Texas will likely be squeezed into fewer and fewer Congressional districts anyways.  Just something to keep in mind.

[Sam Spade]

Poor Chet Edwards -- forever on the "Watch List." Oh, the vicissitudes of life as a Southern Caucasian Democratic Congressman.

His opponent is a third-tier candidate who lost Republican primaries back in 2000 and 2002 to face Edwards.  I don't really consider him in any danger.  Of course, the Republican will probably get 40% just by being there, but that doesn't win elections.

Quick question: How come IL-06 is listed as "Likely Republican"? The Democrats had a colossal recruiting failure here. I'd take this race off the board.

The CD is not that Republican (margins are declining) and the incumbent is a first-term incumbent, which to me is the weakest kind.  I understand the candidate problems, but I will likely give some Dem takeovers in 2006 similar designations.

[Sam Spade]

Poor Chet Edwards -- forever on the "Watch List." Oh, the vicissitudes of life as a Southern Caucasian Democratic Congressman.

His opponent is a third-tier candidate who lost Republican primaries back in 2000 and 2002 to face Edwards.  I don't really consider him in any danger.  Of course, the Republican will probably get 40% just by being there, but that doesn't win elections.

I agree with your designation of his race.  If the Democrats retake the TX State House, he could be around till 2022. By then, Texas may finally become a two-party state.

Remember though, that they would need to hold the House until after the 2010 elections in order to have any say so in designing maps.  And rural west Texas will likely be squeezed into fewer and fewer Congressional districts anyways.  Just something to keep in mind.

If Democrats can get the state House for the 2012 redistricting, a few significant changes are likely to happen.  First, Republicans are not going to be allowed to split the Democratic base in Tarrant county between four different districts.  A fair district will likely be created that inculdes all of Fort Worth(including its blacks which Republicans also split pretty thin).  This district would likely elect a Democrat.  Then Democrats will likely force Republicans to create fairer distrist in Dallas.  This would likely require linedrawers to "unpack" some minority voters that are segregated into the TX-30 in order to keep them from having any significant influence in nearby districts.  

Don't disagree, though some compromise may be worked out in that situation, especially considering where the new CDs are going to be.

[Sam Spade]

Poor Chet Edwards -- forever on the "Watch List." Oh, the vicissitudes of life as a Southern Caucasian Democratic Congressman.

His opponent is a third-tier candidate who lost Republican primaries back in 2000 and 2002 to face Edwards.  I don't really consider him in any danger.  Of course, the Republican will probably get 40% just by being there, but that doesn't win elections.

I agree with your designation of his race.  If the Democrats retake the TX State House, he could be around till 2022. By then, Texas may finally become a two-party state.

Remember though, that they would need to hold the House until after the 2010 elections in order to have any say so in designing maps.  And rural west Texas will likely be squeezed into fewer and fewer Congressional districts anyways.  Just something to keep in mind.

If Democrats can get the state House for the 2012 redistricting, a few significant changes are likely to happen.  First, Republicans are not going to be allowed to split the Democratic base in Tarrant county between four different districts.  A fair district will likely be created that inculdes all of Fort Worth(including its blacks which Republicans also split pretty thin).  This district would likely elect a Democrat.  Then Democrats will likely force Republicans to create fairer distrist in Dallas.  This would likely require linedrawers to "unpack" some minority voters that are segregated into the TX-30 in order to keep them from having any significant influence in nearby districts. 

Don't disagree, though some compromise may be worked out in that situation, especially considering where the new CDs are going to be.

Republicans will likely get the new districts, while Democrats would be given a shot at some of the existing districts as Republican territory is pared away to create new ones. 

Some of the Dallas-area Republicans could be threatened, like Pete Sessions.  They were reduced to below 60% of the vote in 2006, and Bush lost ground in this area in 2004.  It was traditionally Republican-terain that elected his father to the House in 1966 - wealthy, white suburban and urban voters who care more about a candidate's economic than social values.  In the next few years perhaps the right kind of Democratic candidate could stage a comeback to win here - someone with Clintonesque economic virtues. 

It's an interesting conversation, but a lot depends on whether Democrats can take control of the House or the Governorship in 2010 (Senate control changeover is nil for a number of reasons).  Because if the Republicans have control of all three branches, they will deal with things in such a way that will not be pretty to Democrats, except to probably try and feed another CD to the Hispanics (not to mention trigger more lawsuits).

[Sam Spade]

Sam Spade, I read Baker of Louisiana is retiring, which might create some play.

Possibly.  I hear the Dems have a good conservative Dem candidate down there and I don't know whether we still have any idea the composition of the CD after Katrina.  Of course, Louisiana is one of the few states in the Union right now that I suspect has no anti-GOP trend at present and I suspect will have little in 2008.

I've only really gotten a chance to get to Illinois and Texas House seats for the moment (because the filing deadlines are past) - but the rest of it will be up soon, probably after February 5.

[Sam Spade]

updated...

Come on josh22 and Harry, you know you want to post something...

[Sam Spade]

updated...

Come on josh22 and Harry, you know you want to post something...

I appreciate that you can look at the race objectively, unlike most of the Republicans on this board who remain certain of a Wicker double-digit victory.

I didn't say that a double-digit victory wouldn't occur - rather this is an observation of a race as it stands right now.  Naturally, you know what I expect to happen.

[Sam Spade]

I might put Minnesota closer to tossup than lean R but that's about all...  when I did these things I made two categories entitled "Tossup D" and "Tossup R" to differentiate.  Minnesota this year seems made for the "Tossup R" category, at least for now.

No.  Not with Franken.

[Sam Spade]

Considering the GOP got the best possible match-up in terms of winning the election, I think NJ should be moved to Likely D rather than Safe D.  I'd say Zimmer winds up losing by less than 5%

So, in other words, Zimmer will lose by double-digits.  Thanks.