Sam Spade's 2008 Senate/House Election Prediction Thread (FINALIZED - SEE P.18)

[Nym90]

Kinda surprised this thread hasn't got more action - predictions too reasonable, perhaps??? 

Bumping anyway.

Yeah, I think that's it, at least for me. Nothing really to quibble with, and it's too early to have a good feel for most of these races yet.

[Nym90]

I would tend to agree that the bell cannot be unrung for Stevens when it comes to the trial, but I also suspect Republicans underpoll in Alaska, so who knows. Palin could well put him over the top by increasing turnout.

[Nym90]

I would tend to agree that the bell cannot be unrung for Stevens when it comes to the trial, but I also suspect Republicans underpoll in Alaska, so who knows. Palin could well put him over the top by increasing turnout.

I don't know whether Palin will help, but Republicans do tend to underpoll in Alaska, so I agree there.  Whichever, the trial is the important part.

True. If it were anywhere other than Alaska I'd say the scandal would doom him regardless of the results of the trial (dye cannot be uncast, bell can't be unrung, whatever metaphor is to your liking here....). But it's Alaska, and they do like their pork.

[Nym90]

Sam, I have a challenge for you and I think you'll enjoy it but maybe not.

Can you list the five-seven House races, and, perhaps, two Senate races, which you are most likely to be proven wrong on in election day?  Upsets of Sam's predidctions, if you will.  I know you already try and adjust for this type of thing (AK-AK-AK), but it'd be a good firewall for you   Even if you miss a race or two, you can still have them on that secondary "Maybe I'm Wrong" list.

Sort of thing I'm truly interested in.  I trust your judgment as rough estimate of the consensus, but I trust your judgment more on where the consensus could be failing to take other factors into account.     And it's not just CA-4 (which I'm surprised to note is already at #40, yay, higher than Politicker which has it at #53 or so) haha.   Besides the clear tossups, which races on November 4th would be the least predictable?

Or is your list already organized 100% in terms of confidence?

Yes, would be interested to see his take on these, as well.

Also looking to see if his upset picks pan out better this year than Steele in 2006 or Bush winning Hawaii in 2004.

Not that I'm being critical; at least he has the balls to make such picks, which I don't.

[Nym90]

Sam, I have a challenge for you and I think you'll enjoy it but maybe not.

Can you list the five-seven House races, and, perhaps, two Senate races, which you are most likely to be proven wrong on in election day?  Upsets of Sam's predidctions, if you will.  I know you already try and adjust for this type of thing (AK-AK-AK), but it'd be a good firewall for you   Even if you miss a race or two, you can still have them on that secondary "Maybe I'm Wrong" list.

Sort of thing I'm truly interested in.  I trust your judgment as rough estimate of the consensus, but I trust your judgment more on where the consensus could be failing to take other factors into account.     And it's not just CA-4 (which I'm surprised to note is already at #40, yay, higher than Politicker which has it at #53 or so) haha.   Besides the clear tossups, which races on November 4th would be the least predictable?

Or is your list already organized 100% in terms of confidence?

Yes, would be interested to see his take on these, as well.

Also looking to see if his upset picks pan out better this year than Steele in 2006 or Bush winning Hawaii in 2004.

Not that I'm being critical; at least he has the balls to make such picks, which I don't.

I have, in the past, chosen to make some upset picks.  This year, I probably won't, because when they're wrong they get pointed out and when I'm right - they don't. (e.g. Pombo in 2006)

Was truly looking forward to the upset pick.

You should pick Barkley to win in MN. Hell, if you won't, I just might have to pick up the slack!

[Nym90]

Ok, I understand now that you're saying how it will end up on election day.  Also, what is the deal with Mahoney?  Will he issue an apology ad?  Can that save him?

At this point, nothing can save him.  Do you not realize how brutally toxic his situation is?

What is it with FL-16 and sex scandals?