Sam Spade's 2008 Senate/House Election Prediction Thread (FINALIZED - SEE P.18)

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why do you think Warner v Davis would be only lean D?

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I might put Minnesota closer to tossup than lean R but that's about all...  when I did these things I made two categories entitled "Tossup D" and "Tossup R" to differentiate.  Minnesota this year seems made for the "Tossup R" category, at least for now.

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Bob Torricelli went out with an unblemished record, too, right?

Yes, he simply was too ill to hold office or something like that...

What does Torricelli have to do with anything?

he technically did not lose is the point being made.

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why is GA likely as opposed to lean?  I'd think that Martin's chances are closer to Musgrove's than to Allen's... I actually think he might be slightly more likely to win than Musgrove is (but also more likely to lose by 8-10%).

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isn't WY-AL as 'Likely R' a bit of stretch...?

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isn't WY-AL as 'Likely R' a bit of stretch...?

Once again - reexamine the poll and tell me who the undecideds are.  I'm not getting ruined on my predictions like I did with Idaho in 2006 where the same thing occurred.

I understand that and agree with your implication that most undecideds will come home and pull Lummis across the finish line.  but 'likely' to me implies >90% or so chance of victory which just doesn't quite work for me...

this is a bit of an academic point as we agree Lummis is likely to win anyway but I'd put Trauner's chances closer to Musgrove's (lean) than I would Tom Allen's (likely).