I'm not a crystal ball wielding kind of guy, but I do enjoy reading other folks take on such things. Here's Chris Cillizza, over at the WaPo, take on the Senate seats most likely to flip as of now.
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/08/the_line_where_are_the_gop_sen.html10. Alaska: We never thought we'd write this, but Sen. Ted Stevens (R) appears to be in serious electoral jeopardy. Stevens, a legend in Alaska politics, has drawn considerable scrutiny from a federal investigation into a pay-to-play scandal involving an Alaska energy company. Democrats sense an opportunity and are optimistic that Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, the son of late Alaska Rep. Nick Begich (D), will decide to take on Stevens. A recent independent poll conducted in the state showed the depth of Stevens's potential problems: 44 percent felt favorably toward him while 40 percent felt unfavorably. Stevens, 83, insists he has no plans to retire. If the investigation continues to proceed, however, Stevens may rethink that plan. (Previous ranking: N/A)
9. South Dakota: All eyes will be on Tim Johnson (D) later this month when he makes his first trip to the state since emergency brain surgery late last year. While we believe Johnson wants to run for another term, we don't believe he has made a final decision. National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Ensign (Nev.) announced earlier this month that he would begin to put the pieces in place to find a serious candidate to challenge Johnson. The response by Johnson's office -- calling Ensign's announcement "a classless attack by a desperate chairman" -- was WAY over the top; Ensign's job, after all, is to elect more Republicans. Even so, it's hard to see a serious Republican emerging if Johnson decides to run for reelection. Gov. Mike Rounds (R) is the party's strongest candidate but would likely run only if Johnson decides to retire. (Previous ranking: 9)
8. Nebraska: Can anyone claim to know what's going on in the mind of Sen. Chuck Hagel (R)? The Fix expects him to announce his retirement from the Senate some time this fall, but Hagel has proved us wrong before. If Hagel retires, Democrats are expected to make a major push for his seat. The likely candidate is Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey, although former Sen. Bob Kerrey has also expressed some interest and might well have the right of first refusal. Republicans would quickly move to recruit Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns, a former Nebraska governor, but it's not clear that Attorney General Jon Bruning, who is already in the race, would back out. The eventual Republican nominee should be helped by the state's strong GOP bent. (Previous ranking:
7. Minnesota: Sen. Norm Coleman must be feeling pretty good about his reelection chances, since he is bringing President Bush into the state on Aug. 21 to raise money for his candidacy. Coleman can expect a bashing from both of his potential Democratic opponents -- comedian Al Franken and 2000 Senate candidate Mike Ciresi -- but he obviously calculated that the money he will raise from the Bush visit is worth it. It's hard to analyze this race until we know whether Franken or Ciresi will emerge from next summer's nominating convention as the party's nominee. Either way, Democrats will seek to make the race a referendum on Coleman and his relationship with President Bush. It's a potent argument in a state Bush lost in 2004 (albeit narrowly), but even Democrats acknowledge Coleman's political savvy and agree that this race is far from a slam dunk (don't forget that the GOP will hold its national convention in the Twin Cities next summer). Still, it is a testament to Democratic opportunities in 2008 that a race likely to be decided by a few percentage points is only ranked No. 7 on The Line. (Previous ranking: 5)
6. Maine: Democrats want the race between Rep. Tom Allen (D) and Sen. Susan Collins (R) to be about one thing -- Iraq. Allen voted against the war in 2002 while Collins supported it. Republicans argue that Iraq is only a part of this race; voters know and like Collins for her moderate positioning on a wide range of issues, they say, and respect the fact that she is trying to find a consensus solution somewhere between President Bush's surge proposal and Democrats' push for withdrawal. Who's right? We don't know. Here's two things we do know: First, Collins is in the fight of her political life; and second, her political skills are regularly underrated. (Previous ranking: 4)
5. Oregon: After a long search, Democrats have settled on state House Speaker Jeff Merkley as their preferred candidate against Sen. Gordon Smith (R). Merkley started the campaign on the right foot by recruiting Gov. Ted Kulongoski and former Gov. Barbara Roberts as his campaign chairs, although he still faces a primary from activist Steve Novick. Merkley is seeking to set the terms of the race early by making clear he opposed the war in Iraq from the start while Smith made an "election night reversal" on the issue. Smith is no slouch and will be very well-funded. But the national political environment could play heavily in this race. A poll conducted for Novick showed that just 21 percent of Oregonians thought Bush was doing an "excellent/good" job while a whopping 79 percent thought he was doing a "fair/poor" job. We known Smith isn't Bush, but that is a tough hill to climb for anyone with an "R" after his name. (Previous ranking: 7)
4. Virginia: This race continues to move up The Line based on two assumptions: Sen. John Warner (R) announces his retirement next month and former Gov. Mark Warner (D) quickly enters the race. If either of those events doesn't come to pass, then this race will drop down the rankings. But John Warner does seem set to leave the Senate after more than three decades in office, and Mark Warner is clearly itching to get back into political life following his sudden departure from the presidential race in the fall of 2006. Mark Warner, who left office as one of the most popular governors in the country, would almost certainly have the Democratic primary to himself. Republicans, meanwhile, would likely face a primary between Rep. Tom Davis and former Gov. Jim Gilmore, a race that could expose serious ideological division within the GOP. Regardless of whom Republicans pick, Mark Warner would be a favorite. (Previous ranking: 6)
3. Louisiana: We're leaving this race in the No. 3 position because we can't figure out where else to put it. On the one hand, even Democrats acknowledge that Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) is endangered due to the changing political nature of the Bayou State -- a process that was accelerated by the outmigration from the Democratic bastion of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. On the other hand, Republicans seem to be putting all of their hopes on state Treasurer John Kennedy, who is currently a Democrat. Party switching isn't the black mark in Louisiana that it is in other states, but Kennedy's flirtation with the state Attorney General's race this year (he eventually decided not to run) raises questions about how dedicated he is to challenging Landrieu. (Previous ranking: 3)
2. New Hampshire: Although Democrats are worried about premature celebration, most state and national party strategists believe former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) is going to announce next month that she will take on Sen. John Sununu (R). Shaheen's own husband has told supporters that his wife is "70 percent" likely to run, according to columnist Bob Novak. If Shaheen runs, she starts the race as the favorite. Sununu is a savvy senator but faces a very difficult task in running away from President Bush and the Republican label -- both of which are major problems in the Northeast. (Previous ranking: 2)
1. Colorado: The challenge before former Rep. Bob Schaffer (R) became clear late last month when a liberal activist group -- known as ProgressNowAction -- accused him of selling his vote on the state's Board of Education for a campaign contribution. Whether the accusation sticks is beside the point. Colorado has an incredibly well organized and well funded group of progressive groups that will be blasting away at Schaffer every day of the campaign. That means Rep. Mark Udall (D) can keep his hands clean, focusing on courting the political independents who will likely decide the race. (Previous ranking: 1)
