Sam Spade's 2008 Senate/House Election Prediction Thread (FINALIZED - SEE P.18)

[MarkWarner08]

Astute predictions - any partisan bias =  more agreement and fewer comments

[MarkWarner08]

Conan:

Texas and Georgia should be safe, but I always play it more cautious coming out of the gate.

NH will be Lean D with Shaheen, sorry we disagree.  Too early to put anything in the Likely part of the other team's column unless an open seat.

MN may be tossup eventually, but it certainly not tossup now.

Sam, would you agree that Mike Ciresi is a stronger nominee than Al Franken? While Norm Coleman is more charismatic and less prone to errors that Rod Grams, I see parallels between the 2000 race between liberal self-funder Mark Dayton and wishy-washy conservative Rod Grams.  I'd put Coleman in the toss-up category for now, largely because of  Minnesota's political history.

Minnesota has the longest streak of voting Democratic in  a Presidential election (and it nearly voted fro McGovern in '72), it has only elected one Republican to the Senate since 1990 and it's recently swung heavily towards the Democrats (Democrats have retaken the State House, solidified their majority in the State Senate, won a U.S House seat and nearly beat the relatively popular moderate Governor with a milquetoast candidate who had a propensity for profane statements). If Norm Coleman could barely beat a politician with cob-webbed political skills (Walter Mondale) in the most pro-Republican year since 1994, how can he possibly be secure in 2008?

[MarkWarner08]

Democrats
Strong Dem
Delaware
Illinois
Massachusetts
Michigan
New Jersey
Rhode Island

Likely Dem
Arkansas
Iowa
Montana
South Dakota
West Virginia
Virginia

Lean Dem
Louisiana
Minnesota
Colorado
New Hampshire
Oregon

Republicans
Strong GOP
Alabama
Alaska
Kansas
Mississippi
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Texas
Wyoming
Wyoming

Likely GOP
Georgia
Idaho
Nebraska

Lean GOP
Kentucky
Maine
North Carolina
New Mexico
Tennessee (if Ford runs, otherwise likely GOP)

Here's a map for it:

At this point, I don't see Democrats winning Oregon.

Umm, why?  I'd argue that Minnesota -- if the DFL picks Franken -- much more likely to vote GOP than Oregon is.

[MarkWarner08]

Updated

Great to see you're keeping tabs on these races. If I had more time (ie lighter course load), I'd post my House and Senate predictions. Oh, well, I guess I'll wait till Thanksgiving break.

[MarkWarner08]

Oregon (Dems look really disheveled here, especially with 3rd party looming)

For a person who's likely never set foot in the Beaver State, you've described our Senate race quite aptly and succinctly.

[MarkWarner08]

Poor Chet Edwards -- forever on the "Watch List." Oh, the vicissitudes of life as a Southern Caucasian Democratic Congressman.

[MarkWarner08]

Poor Chet Edwards -- forever on the "Watch List." Oh, the vicissitudes of life as a Southern Caucasian Democratic Congressman.

His opponent is a third-tier candidate who lost Republican primaries back in 2000 and 2002 to face Edwards.  I don't really consider him in any danger.  Of course, the Republican will probably get 40% just by being there, but that doesn't win elections.

I agree with your designation of his race.  If the Democrats retake the TX State House, he could be around till 2022. By then, Texas may finally become a two-party state.

[MarkWarner08]

Poor Chet Edwards -- forever on the "Watch List." Oh, the vicissitudes of life as a Southern Caucasian Democratic Congressman.

His opponent is a third-tier candidate who lost Republican primaries back in 2000 and 2002 to face Edwards.  I don't really consider him in any danger.  Of course, the Republican will probably get 40% just by being there, but that doesn't win elections.

Quick question: How come IL-06 is listed as "Likely Republican"? The Democrats had a colossal recruiting failure here. I'd take this race off the board.

[MarkWarner08]

Sam Spade, I read Baker of Louisiana is retiring, which might create some play.

Possibly.  I hear the Dems have a good conservative Dem candidate down there and I don't know whether we still have any idea the composition of the CD after Katrina.  Of course, Louisiana is one of the few states in the Union right now that I suspect has no anti-GOP trend at present and I suspect will have little in 2008.

I've only really gotten a chance to get to Illinois and Texas House seats for the moment (because the filing deadlines are past) - but the rest of it will be up soon, probably after February 5.

I added this race to my "Potentially Competitive" category.

[MarkWarner08]

Sam Spade, plaudits for compiling a solid House race list. I have only a few disagreements. First, why do you rank CT-05 above the two vulnerable Arizona Democratic freshmen. The GOP candidate against Chris Murphy has underperformed in fundraising and has been chastised by local Republicans for his weak campaign operation. While Giffords is a rising star in the Democratic Party, she'll face the toughest challenge of her career against State Senate President Tim Bee, who will try to ride the McCain coattails to victory.

Second, I'd place CT-04 higher than NM-01. We both know that Heinrich is a weak Democratic candidate who is handicapped by race and lack of political experience. Sheriff White is a top-notch contender, someone who probably could've held this seat in 2006 for the GOP.  In CT-04, we have a Democratic contender who is a perfect fit for this district. Himes is a Harvard-educated Wall-Street millionaire turned do-gooder who volunteered in the poor precincts of this district. Himes has drawn on his extensive list of wealth contacts to nearly match Shays' fundraising.  Unlike the Farrell, who was allergic to door-to-door comapaigning, Himes is a campaign-aholic, someone who will knock on enough doors to enough victories. He simply can't be outworked.

He's also quite impressive on the stump. I remember reading an article with quotes from voters saying that he, not Obama and Clinton, should be the Democratic POTUS nominee. He's a policy wonk with a charisma, a compassionate politician with connections to big money, and he'll have the full backing of the DCCC. With Obama expected to carry this district by 5-10 points, I'd peg Himes as a slight favorite. This is one race where if I had to bet today, I'd go agaisnt the conventional wisdom and pick a Himes upset.

[MarkWarner08]

Policy wonks have a heck of a lot of trouble winning heated elections, I find.

Yes, but he's a policy wonk with a rare ability to distill complicated concepts into short sound bites. In one of his campaign events, he successfully explained the need for AMT reform to a group of senior citizens. Any politician who can explain tax policy to the Social Security crowd is truly gifted.

[MarkWarner08]

Sam Spade, plaudits for compiling a solid House race list. I have only a few disagreements. First, why do you rank CT-05 above the two vulnerable Arizona Democratic freshmen. The GOP candidate against Chris Murphy has underperformed in fundraising and has been chastised by local Republicans for his weak campaign operation. While Giffords is a rising star in the Democratic Party, she'll face the toughest challenge of her career against State Senate President Tim Bee, who will try to ride the McCain coattails to victory.

Second, I'd place CT-04 higher than NM-01. We both know that Heinrich is a weak Democratic candidate who is handicapped by race and lack of political experience. Sheriff White is a top-notch contender, someone who probably could've held this seat in 2006 for the GOP.  In CT-04, we have a Democratic contender who is a perfect fit for this district. Himes is a Harvard-educated Wall-Street millionaire turned do-gooder who volunteered in the poor precincts of this district. Himes has drawn on his extensive list of wealth contacts to nearly match Shays' fundraising.  Unlike the Farrell, who was allergic to door-to-door comapaigning, Himes is a campaign-aholic, someone who will knock on enough doors to enough victories. He simply can't be outworked.

He's also quite impressive on the stump. I remember reading an article with quotes from voters saying that he, not Obama and Clinton, should be the Democratic POTUS nominee. He's a policy wonk with a charisma, a compassionate politician with connections to big money, and he'll have the full backing of the DCCC. With Obama expected to carry this district by 5-10 points, I'd peg Himes as a slight favorite. This is one race where if I had to bet today, I'd go agaisnt the conventional wisdom and pick a Himes upset.

Pst, I have news for you. Himes isn't doing anything. He has a few horrible commericials, one of which is where his old teachers endorse him, and call him "Jimmy". Also, whatsherface got enough signatures to force a primary, so he'll have to wait a bit more before he can go after Chris.

 I say Chris wins this one with 52%-54%

Yes, Himes isn't doing anything, except matching Shays nearly dollar for dollar in fundraising, campaigning all across the district, all while investing in a solid GOTV operation. You might no like Himes introductory ads, but they're effective in defining the candidate before the Shays money machine can.

Do really think Himes will fall short of Diane "What's retail politics" Farrell' showing? Part of why Farrell underperformed in '06 was due to the decreased Bridgeport turnout. Obama will help Himes in that area. If Shays wins, it'll be a 51-49 win, not a 54-46 win.

[MarkWarner08]

Moved a few races around very slightly (a spot here, a spot there), due to some fairly strong fundraising numbers today from the GOP non-incumbents Ozinga in IL-11 and Paulsen (now over a million in COH) in MN-03.  Same thing with Kirk in IL-10, but its not unexpected there.  Moved NY-25 and AZ-01 up the Dem takeover lists for obvious reasons.

Good changes. Besides NM-01, MN-03 is probably the GOP's top hope for holding a contested open seat.

[MarkWarner08]

Finally, Martin Heinrich has caught a break. In a recent NYT article, Sheriff Darren White took a shot at Bill Richardson.   “You can’t go on the national stage and have people find out you have no problem with a bloody sport,” said Sherrif White, in reference to Gov. Richardson's weak stand on cockfighting.

This could motivate Big Bill to awaken from his political slumber to take on White. A politically active Richardson campaign for Heinrich is just what the Anglo liberal's flagging campaign needs.

[MarkWarner08]

Finally, Martin Heinrich has caught a break. In a recent NYT article, Sheriff Darren White took a shot at Bill Richardson.   “You can’t go on the national stage and have people find out you have no problem with a bloody sport,” said Sherrif White, in reference to Gov. Richardson's weak stand on cockfighting.

This could motivate Big Bill to awaken from his political slumber to take on White. A politically active Richardson campaign for Heinrich is just what the Anglo liberal's flagging campaign needs.

I doubt Richardson alone can save it, but who knows.

Of course, Richardson's approvals have been slowly sinking over his problems with the Legislature (among other things).

Richardson has also lost a little luster wit his failed Presidential run. He and Dodd seem to be suffering in state polls because for much of the last two years, they were more focused on Des Moines than Darien or Dona Ana County, respectively.

At time point I'm not sanguine about Heinrich's chances. Barring a full-out Richardson/DCCC media blitz, White will prevail by 4-6%.

[MarkWarner08]

Moved a few races around very slightly (a spot here, a spot there), due to some fairly strong fundraising numbers today from the GOP non-incumbents Ozinga in IL-11 and Paulsen (now over a million in COH) in MN-03.

Paulsen's not the only MN-03 candidate putting up gaudy fundraising numbers. Ashwin Madia (D): ~$650K raised (rumored) $693K raised; $738K CoH (press release)

Interestingly, I think Madia and Paulsen are both rising stars who could someday be senators. If Madia wins, he and Walz (if they're both still around) will be the top Democratic Senate candidates in 2014.

I see Paulsen as the next Paul Ryan, an adroit youngish conservative who can easily hold an otherwise marginal district. Both of these candidates have a lot of potential as legislators -- it's an unfortunate reality that one of them has to lose.

[MarkWarner08]

So, it goes on the other side of Porter now.  I won't put it on the side of going Democrat without any polling on the race simply because of the history of this area of Minnesota and its tendencies.

In many ways, MN-03 and NJ-07 are sister CDs, with NJ-07 being slightly less marginal, and more importantly, with two candidates I know pretty well, henceforth the distinction.

Yep. If I could only watch the results of two House races, I'd choose those two. If Democrats win both, they'll have a very good night. A split hints at a decent Democratic showing. A double retention suggests Republicans will hold most "Leans R" seats and will not be blown out in open seat tossup races.

[MarkWarner08]

Made a couple of modifications to the Senate list due to the FEC filing garbage, etc. - moved Oregon ahead of MS (Wicker) (I was planning on doing this one for a while now) and moved Texas down to safe (Noriega has absoluetly zero chance with raising that little money).

House movement will probably take me until the weekend, should I decide to make any.

I'll follow suit on the Senate races. I'm also bumping Minnesota up to Leans Republican. Franken seems to have weathered the worst attacks and his CoH numbers should sustain him through the fall. He'll have to grab onto those Obama coattails...

If I were you, I'd nudged NJ-03 up the competitiveness chart. I've also bumped IL-10 down to #17. I have this gut feeling that Kirk will survive even if Obama wins that district with 60%, which I think is unlikely. Kirk's excellent field operations, the delicate redistricting that removed many Democratic precincts, and Seals' lack of a political base are all factors in Kirk's favor. Don't be stunned if Kirk pulls a Gerlach and wins a race he should lose on paper.

[MarkWarner08]

NJ-03, why?

On IL-10, I'll agree to put him behind Musgrave, but I'm leery of doing too much, considering coattails.  Same thing applies considering what's been going on in IL-11.

I'd move NJ-03 from Tossup to Lean D. That's what I meant.

I'm suspicious of the effect of coattails in district with politically wishy-washy affluent, well-educated professionals. They may vote for Kirk as a way to keep Obama honest on taxes.

[MarkWarner08]

Interesting KS-03 fundraising numbers:
                                                          Q2        CoH
KS-03     Dennis Moore     D-inc.     $336     $1,140     
KS-03    Nick Jordan    R                 $472    $616    

Jordan may be the toughest foe Moore has ever faced. In 1998, Moore defeated ultra-conservative freshman Congressman Vince Snowbarger. In 2002, the infamous Phill Kiline lost by 3%. Two years later, the NRCC's star recruit here lost in the GOP primary, but the primary winner held Moore to a 50%-47%. The last two cycles have ended with double-digit Moore wins over conservative candidates.

Now the GOP has found a moderate from Johnson County to run against Moore. If Jordan had run in 2002, he might be running for reelection now. While Jordan is the right fit for the district, he still faces the twin challenges of incumbency (Moore finally appears to be ensconced here) and the political climate.

I've bumped this race up to #17th most likely Democratic seat to flip.

[MarkWarner08]

Interesting KS-03 fundraising numbers:
                                                          Q2        CoH
KS-03     Dennis Moore     D-inc.     $336     $1,140     
KS-03    Nick Jordan    R                 $472    $616    

Jordan may be the toughest foe Moore has ever faced. In 1998, Moore defeated ultra-conservative freshman Congressman Vince Snowbarger. In 2002, the infamous Phill Kiline lost by 3%. Two years later, the NRCC's star recruit here lost in the GOP primary, but the primary winner held Moore to a 50%-47%. The last two cycles have ended with double-digit Moore wins over conservative candidates.

Now the GOP has found a moderate from Johnson County to run against Moore. If Jordan had run in 2002, he might be running for reelection now. While Jordan is the right fit for the district, he still faces the twin challenges of incumbency (Moore finally appears to be ensconced here) and the political climate.

I've bumped this race up to #17th most likely Democratic seat to flip.

Perhaps. Jordan is a  "moderate"  in the sense that he is a nonentity who has not taken part in the factional squabbles in the State Senate. Unfortunately, his effort to unite the Johnson CO GOP is going to be nuked by Phil Kline's run for DA. Kline is going to win a nasty primary, and then he is going to go down in flames in the general in a area he lost by 30 points two years ago.

Normally a local race would not have coattails in a Presidential year, but Kline is currently breaking the local party to pieces, and Jordan allowed himself to be sucked in on Kline's side earlier this year. It was probably a smart decision in the short run because opposing Kline might have triggered a far-right challenge, but it undid most of Jordan's moderate credentials. If Moore is smart he will make Kline's antics the issue, as Kline has become an enormously polarizing figure.

Ah... Phill Kline, a mesmerizingly charismatic public speaker who espouses views to the right of Sam Brownback's, whose mercurial career has yet to reach its eventual nadir.   Now Kline is trying to replace the Johnson County DA who replaced him as AG. I agree with your assessment of Kline's chance. Kline's presence on the ballot with hurt Jordan a little, but I doubt it will cost him the election. Voters know that Jordan is a "mod" and Kline is a"con," they'll distinguish between the two.

I expect Jordan to pull 45%-47% of the vote. If Jordan exceeds Kline's 2000 performance (which was before Kline went off the ideological deep end),  KS-03 will be one of the hottest races of the 2010 cycle. Moore may even retire if he barely wins in such a Democratic year.

[MarkWarner08]

Interesting KS-03 fundraising numbers:
                                                          Q2        CoH
KS-03     Dennis Moore     D-inc.     $336     $1,140     
KS-03    Nick Jordan    R                 $472    $616    

Jordan may be the toughest foe Moore has ever faced. In 1998, Moore defeated ultra-conservative freshman Congressman Vince Snowbarger. In 2002, the infamous Phill Kiline lost by 3%. Two years later, the NRCC's star recruit here lost in the GOP primary, but the primary winner held Moore to a 50%-47%. The last two cycles have ended with double-digit Moore wins over conservative candidates.

Now the GOP has found a moderate from Johnson County to run against Moore. If Jordan had run in 2002, he might be running for reelection now. While Jordan is the right fit for the district, he still faces the twin challenges of incumbency (Moore finally appears to be ensconced here) and the political climate.

I've bumped this race up to #17th most likely Democratic seat to flip.

Perhaps. Jordan is a  "moderate"  in the sense that he is a nonentity who has not taken part in the factional squabbles in the State Senate. Unfortunately, his effort to unite the Johnson CO GOP is going to be nuked by Phil Kline's run for DA. Kline is going to win a nasty primary, and then he is going to go down in flames in the general in a area he lost by 30 points two years ago.

Normally a local race would not have coattails in a Presidential year, but Kline is currently breaking the local party to pieces, and Jordan allowed himself to be sucked in on Kline's side earlier this year. It was probably a smart decision in the short run because opposing Kline might have triggered a far-right challenge, but it undid most of Jordan's moderate credentials. If Moore is smart he will make Kline's antics the issue, as Kline has become an enormously polarizing figure.

Ah... Phill Kline, a mesmerizingly charismatic public speaker who espouses views to the right of Sam Brownback's, whose mercurial career has yet to reach its eventual nadir.   Now Kline is trying to replace the Johnson County DA who replaced him as AG. I agree with your assessment of Kline's chance. Kline's presence on the ballot with hurt Jordan a little, but I doubt it will cost him the election. Voters know that Jordan is a "mod" and Kline is a"con," they'll distinguish between the two.

I expect Jordan to pull 45%-47% of the vote. If Jordan exceeds Kline's 2000 performance (which was before Kline went off the ideological deep end),  KS-03 will be one of the hottest races of the 2010 cycle. Moore may even retire if he barely wins in such a Democratic year.

2010 depends on who is elected President.  If its Obama, Moore could be in real trouble.  If its McCain, expect Moore's 2010 perecentage to increase. 

Exactly. As of right now, I expect Obama to win. Which is why I think Moore could be in trouble if Jordan wins >47%.

[MarkWarner08]

One quick thought: In KY-02, the Democrat's fundraising has been abysmal. According to the buzz in the KY political blogosphere, his campaign is far behind where Mike Weaver's was at this point in the cycle. Of course, Weaver lost by 10% in the most favorable political climate to Democrats since 1974. Even the flush DCCC hasn't committed to spending there. Which is surprising because they're spending money in other long shot open seats like NM-02 and CA-04.

[MarkWarner08]

One quick thought: In KY-02, the Democrat's fundraising has been abysmal. According to the buzz in the KY political blogosphere, his campaign is far behind where Mike Weaver's was at this point in the cycle. Of course, Weaver lost by 10% in the most favorable political climate to Democrats since 1974. Even the flush DCCC hasn't committed to spending there. Which is surprising because they're spending money in other long shot open seats like NM-02 and CA-04.

It's only that one poll.  I expect it to move lower on my list, frankly, and will probably do so.

Okay. I just mention this because I think it'll be hard for him to capitalize on a slight lead in a summer poll when he's down 10-1 in CoH.

Then again, that doesn't seem to matter to those who think Leonard Lance will win....
(MW08 crouches under a table as he waits for the Jersey Republicans to remind him that Lance is actually leading in the polls, and that Stender was tarred by over $2 million in "Stender is a Spender" ads.)

[MarkWarner08]

Hmm... Why did you move MO-09 below MO-06? Have you bought into the "Baker is too LIBRUL to win in rural MO" buzz?