Sam Spade's 2008 Senate/House Election Prediction Thread (FINALIZED - SEE P.18)

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If Norm Coleman could barely beat a politician with cob-webbed political skills (Walter Mondale) in the most pro-Republican year since 1994, how can he possibly be secure in 2008?

You sidestep the fact Mondale had never lost anything in Minnesota and was never expected to.

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I'd also like to note Himes' GoldmanSachs touch. Goldmans never lose.

Jack Ryan?

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Bob Torricelli went out with an unblemished record, too, right?

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Sam, why is Stevens less vulnerable than Young?

I'm not Sam, but Stevens lobbied for statehood for Alaska in the first place.  Contrast that with Young, who couldn't get elected until the House seat opened up unexpectedly.

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It's nice to see that you agree Phil English is now in serious trouble.  We also agree that IL-10 is an overrated pickup opportunity for the Democrats. Kirk has now raised over $4.6 million and even Democrats concede that Seals is running a mediocre campaign. Despite the top-ballot atmospherics, it's not a good year to be an Illinois Democrat.

Sure it is!  Seals is one of just two I can think of looking unlikely to reap the rewards.

On Illinois, Halvorson's weakness is fascinating and I have to wonder how she'll do if Blago gets indicted (which I think is becoming almost a foregone conclusion eventually).

I'd love to talk with you about this one some time.

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He and Vito Fossella should start a cover band together after the election.

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Lastly, I'm burying Steve Pearce today...

That race was over when Pearce won the primary.

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I think there is a good chance Merkley (D-OR) wins by more than Udall (D-CO).

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While all the focus was on FL-21, I was more worried about FL-25.  I can see Joe Garcia squeaking through before a felon like Raul Martinez.