Sam Spade's 2008 Senate/House Election Prediction Thread (FINALIZED - SEE P.18)

[Conan]

Senate
Safe D

Arkansas (Huckabee's not running here, so I see no danger - the AR GOP is in pretty bad shape anywho)

Delaware (Biden's going nowhere - in the Prez election)

Illinois (there is presently a lot of infighting going on between Illinois Dems at the state level, but at the national level everything is just fine)

Massachusetts (Kerry's in more danger from a primary than anything else)

Michigan (Levin won't pull huge numbers, but he's safe)

Rhode Island (obviously - if Reed runs for re-election, still obviously otherwise)

West Virginia (see Rhode Island - less safe (LiIkely) if Rockefeller were for some reason to retire)

Likely D

Iowa (If Harkin can attract some GOP congressman to run, he'll win with around 54%-55% as normal, otherwise it's a larger margin and more safe)

Montana (Baucus has had close elections before - his opponent is a joke, but not an unknown joke)

New Jersey (go ahead and laugh - I am)

Lean D

Louisiana (Kennedy is not running (for now), but Landrieu is far from being out of the woods here)

South Dakota (I am still not convinced Johnson will be able to "return" from the Senate - time will tell, but time is running out)

Toss-up

Colorado* (R) (Udall v. Schaefer - Schaefer would obviously love to have Hillary at the top, but that's been clear for a while)

New Hampshire (R) (if Sununu gets Shaheen, put it in Lean D - otherwise this is where it belongs for now)

Lean R

Maine (probably at the bottom of my Lean R's but Allen is sure raising the cash - history is against him though)

Minnesota (I know, lots of questions here - they will be answered soon)

Oregon (well at least Smith now has an opponent - let's see whether he can show the goods - the race is here for now depending on Merkley's ability or lack thereof - at which point it moves back down)

Likely R

Alaska (lots of questions here - Stevens doesn't poll well now and is in scandal - GOPers may be waiting to bite, a la Murkowski 2006 - Dems are looking too, but no one worth a mention has entered - until these questions are answered, the race must stay here b/c of Alaska's natural GOP lean and Stevens' ability to bring in pork like it's going out of style)

Georgia (when Saxby switched back on immigration his numbers went back up - he does have a reasonable opponent in Jones (if Jones gets past primary) - and Saxby is not that popular)

Kentucky (since Mitch has a legit opponent, I'll definitely place him here - the Forgy crap is mucho overrated, Phil)

Nebraska (will Hagel run? I suspect not - he'll probably lose in the primary anyway.  If Bob Kerrey runs, the race will be higher up - if Fahey runs, it'll stay right here.  NE Dems can win Senate seats, but they're usually Governors beforehand)

New Mexico (Domenici is getting close to being put back in safe - his challengers are real jokes and his approval appears to have stabilized - and he's raising money, so retirement doesn't look like it's gonna happen)

North Carolina (I know, Dole doesn't poll well for now - but where's the opponent that I'm not laughing at)

Texas (since Cornyn's approvals are not that great and he has an opponent with money - it's best to be careful.  Though as usual I wouldn't be surprised if Noreiga beats him in the primary and follows the Morales v. Gramm 1996 pattern)

Virginia (you know the story - if Warner's runs, he'll probably win - if not - move to toss-up and see who the candidates are)

Safe R
Alabama (popular GOP Senator in Alabama - if Sessions runs for re-election, he's safe)

Idaho (regardless of whether Craig runs or no - if Dems couldn't win here in 2006, I can't see 2008 chances being any better)

Kansas (Roberts is not that popular, but I see no possible challengers that aren't jokes, so...)

Mississippi (looks like Cochran's running again (esp. with Pickering leaving - if so, definitely safe)

Oklahoma (Inhofe has a not-laughable (well, semi-laughable) opponent, but until I see something that does not back up that 60-24 approval rating I saw a few months ago, I'm not moving.  Plus, Inhofe talks like a guy who's seat is totally safe, as opposed to Cornyn, odd as this may sound)

South Carolina (Lindsay is more afraid of the primary than a Democrat)

Tennessee (Lamar's quite safe)

Wyoming#1 - Barrasso (should fear a primary challenge more)

Wyoming#2 - Enzi (obvious)

Those are my qualms. NH is toss up without Shaheen and likely D with her. MN is toss up. Georgia is safe. Texas is safe.

[Conan]

Conan:

Texas and Georgia should be safe, but I always play it more cautious coming out of the gate.

NH will be Lean D with Shaheen, sorry we disagree.  Too early to put anything in the Likely part of the other team's column unless an open seat.

MN may be tossup eventually, but it certainly not tossup now.

With Shaheen polling near 60% this far away from the election and Sununu's unwillingness to moderate, it's likely dem with her at this moment, and I guess it's only one poll for MN, if there's some more confirmation of those polls then it's def toss up now.

[Conan]

I would put NJ-7 into Toss-Up definitely.

Not with Lance as the candidate and the history of that area. 

In fact, it would be below NM-01, the other marginal open seat where Republicans have a strong advantage based on the particulars (excluding IL-18 of course), but-for Stender's cash advantage at present.

But if my opinion changes or the situation changes, rest assured the ranking will.  It's only the end of June, quite early in these types of races.

NJ-7 is a toss up in my book. Stender will outspend Lance, probably by a lot. Also, look at the history. It's a trending dem district and is only slightly republican. Plus, this is 2008, which looks to be a strong dem year, and this is NJ. At most it's barely lean Lance.

[Conan]

Dick Zimmer being on the ballot should likely help Lance.  They have the same key base, and so both should be relentlessly targeting the same voters.

And you do have to remember that Stender's near miss in 2006 was more due to Foley than anything else.  (Specifically, the relevance it gave Ferguson's Washington DC bar scandal.)

That is ridiculous. Completely nothing to do with Foley and there's nothing to suggest that. Her near miss was because the district is about 50/50 and she was a well funded candidate. There's really no stronger explanation. We shouldn't ignore the most simplest of facts.

Let's also get straight that yes, the district has been lean GOP for quite some time. Lance is a good candidate for the district. I happen to believe it's a toss-up and lean Lance at Best. Also, Stender isn't even the best candidate the dems could get for this district.

I happen to think that her fundraising, Lance's so far lack of, the timing, the marginal demographics of the district, and Obama will carry her over.  Obama did his best in the counties (except Middlesex) that make up this district in the primary. (Haven't specifically looked up the district though)

[Conan]

Sam Spade, plaudits for compiling a solid House race list. I have only a few disagreements. First, why do you rank CT-05 above the two vulnerable Arizona Democratic freshmen. The GOP candidate against Chris Murphy has underperformed in fundraising and has been chastised by local Republicans for his weak campaign operation. While Giffords is a rising star in the Democratic Party, she'll face the toughest challenge of her career against State Senate President Tim Bee, who will try to ride the McCain coattails to victory.

Second, I'd place CT-04 higher than NM-01. We both know that Heinrich is a weak Democratic candidate who is handicapped by race and lack of political experience. Sheriff White is a top-notch contender, someone who probably could've held this seat in 2006 for the GOP.  In CT-04, we have a Democratic contender who is a perfect fit for this district. Himes is a Harvard-educated Wall-Street millionaire turned do-gooder who volunteered in the poor precincts of this district. Himes has drawn on his extensive list of wealth contacts to nearly match Shays' fundraising.  Unlike the Farrell, who was allergic to door-to-door comapaigning, Himes is a campaign-aholic, someone who will knock on enough doors to enough victories. He simply can't be outworked.

He's also quite impressive on the stump. I remember reading an article with quotes from voters saying that he, not Obama and Clinton, should be the Democratic POTUS nominee. He's a policy wonk with a charisma, a compassionate politician with connections to big money, and he'll have the full backing of the DCCC. With Obama expected to carry this district by 5-10 points, I'd peg Himes as a slight favorite. This is one race where if I had to bet today, I'd go agaisnt the conventional wisdom and pick a Himes upset.

Pst, I have news for you. Himes isn't doing anything. He has a few horrible commericials, one of which is where his old teachers endorse him, and call him "Jimmy". Also, whatsherface got enough signatures to force a primary, so he'll have to wait a bit more before he can go after Chris.

 I say Chris wins this one with 52%-54%

Yes, Himes isn't doing anything, except matching Shays nearly dollar for dollar in fundraising, campaigning all across the district, all while investing in a solid GOTV operation. You might no like Himes introductory ads, but they're effective in defining the candidate before the Shays money machine can.

Do really think Himes will fall short of Diane "What's retail politics" Farrell' showing? Part of why Farrell underperformed in '06 was due to the decreased Bridgeport turnout. Obama will help Himes in that area. If Shays wins, it'll be a 51-49 win, not a 54-46 win.

I'd also like to note Himes' GoldmanSachs touch. Goldmans never lose.

[Conan]

I'd also like to note Himes' GoldmanSachs touch. Goldmans never lose.

Jack Ryan?

He won the primary...never lost an election.

[Conan]

Bob Torricelli went out with an unblemished record, too, right?

Yes, he simply was too ill to hold office or something like that...

What does Torricelli have to do with anything?