Sam Spade's 2008 Senate/House Election Prediction Thread (FINALIZED - SEE P.18)

[Mr.Phips]

Democrats
Strong Dem
Delaware
Illinois
Massachusetts
Michigan
New Jersey
Rhode Island

Likely Dem
Arkansas
Iowa
Montana
South Dakota
West Virginia
Virginia

Lean Dem
Louisiana
Minnesota
Colorado
New Hampshire
Oregon

Republicans
Strong GOP
Alabama
Alaska
Kansas
Mississippi
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Texas
Wyoming
Wyoming

Likely GOP
Georgia
Idaho
Nebraska

Lean GOP
Kentucky
Maine
North Carolina
New Mexico
Tennessee (if Ford runs, otherwise likely GOP)

Here's a map for it:

At this point, I don't see Democrats winning Oregon.

[Mr.Phips]

Updated with Texas added in the House.

Calling Lampson a tossup might be being generous. Or maybe you're unimpressed with the Rep recruiting there? Are there any obvious favorites for the nomination among his half-a-score strong field of opponents?

Much like Charlie Cook, I don't put anything in more than toss-up, until after primaries, at least, so don't read too much into that. 

Among the candidates, boy it could really be anyone.  But last time I heard, the conventional Republican decisionmakers liked Pete Olson, who was Cornyn's chief of staff.  He also raised $200,000 last quarter, which puts him in the serious category.

But it could be anyone...

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Uh, Rodriguez is not in as little danger as Bean.  Bean is only there because her opponents have money.  Moreover, they only appear so close, because other CDs have not entered the list. 

I was really ambivalent about placing this one in toss-up or Lean D, so consider it right on the edge.  FYI, before Larson entered, this one was in toss-up in my mind

In addition, the Republican primary will be brutal (Canseco has money) and I expect the white guy to come out on top.  Plus, my gut tells me that Larson won't connect as well with certain border towns, like Bonilla did.  But if the Republicans nominate someone who won't drag them down along the border, like McCain, it'll go into the middle of toss-up immediately.  And I know about how general Presidential election turnout disproportionately favors Republicans more than any other type of election in this CD, so...

TX-23 is a lean Dem district with any Republican but Bush at the top of the ballot.  Just look at who has won the district under its current lines.  Landslide losers Ron Kirk in 2002 and Victor Morales in 1996 both carried this district. 

[Mr.Phips]

I do not think TX-22 should be under anything stronger than 'Toss-Up' either.  Its too early to start predicting the GOP can defeat Democratic incumbents yet, given the state the Republican Party is in, but regardless of that, the overall picture needs to become clearer. 

In TX-22, any Republican will be favored over any Democrat in a Presidential general election, regardless of incumbency.  Unless maybe it's Gibbs, but I don't see her getting past 9 other challengers (a few of whom are quite strong) and a runoff to boot.  That CD is partisan heaven, and Republicans have the edge (eroding as it may be).  It's also one of the few CDs in Texas where I suspect the Bush numbers are quite accurate generically.  It stays in toss-up for now, but it'll be moved in the future (barring something strange)

OTOH, the TX-23 arguments will go on ad infinitum.  I expect them to continue on into the future.

I will agree with you on TX-22 for the most part, but I could not disagree more on TX-23.  There is no way that a district that is 65% Hispanic is going to favor a white Republican over a Democrat with the last name Rodriguez.  Larson may carry the Bexar county portion of the district, but Rodriguez will likely rack up huge margins in the Border counties to more than overcome that. 

[Mr.Phips]

Poor Chet Edwards -- forever on the "Watch List." Oh, the vicissitudes of life as a Southern Caucasian Democratic Congressman.

His opponent is a third-tier candidate who lost Republican primaries back in 2000 and 2002 to face Edwards.  I don't really consider him in any danger.  Of course, the Republican will probably get 40% just by being there, but that doesn't win elections.

I agree with your designation of his race.  If the Democrats retake the TX State House, he could be around till 2022. By then, Texas may finally become a two-party state.

Remember though, that they would need to hold the House until after the 2010 elections in order to have any say so in designing maps.  And rural west Texas will likely be squeezed into fewer and fewer Congressional districts anyways.  Just something to keep in mind.

If Democrats can get the state House for the 2012 redistricting, a few significant changes are likely to happen.  First, Republicans are not going to be allowed to split the Democratic base in Tarrant county between four different districts.  A fair district will likely be created that inculdes all of Fort Worth(including its blacks which Republicans also split pretty thin).  This district would likely elect a Democrat.  Then Democrats will likely force Republicans to create fairer distrist in Dallas.  This would likely require linedrawers to "unpack" some minority voters that are segregated into the TX-30 in order to keep them from having any significant influence in nearby districts.  

[Mr.Phips]

Poor Chet Edwards -- forever on the "Watch List." Oh, the vicissitudes of life as a Southern Caucasian Democratic Congressman.

His opponent is a third-tier candidate who lost Republican primaries back in 2000 and 2002 to face Edwards.  I don't really consider him in any danger.  Of course, the Republican will probably get 40% just by being there, but that doesn't win elections.

I agree with your designation of his race.  If the Democrats retake the TX State House, he could be around till 2022. By then, Texas may finally become a two-party state.

Remember though, that they would need to hold the House until after the 2010 elections in order to have any say so in designing maps.  And rural west Texas will likely be squeezed into fewer and fewer Congressional districts anyways.  Just something to keep in mind.

If Democrats can get the state House for the 2012 redistricting, a few significant changes are likely to happen.  First, Republicans are not going to be allowed to split the Democratic base in Tarrant county between four different districts.  A fair district will likely be created that inculdes all of Fort Worth(including its blacks which Republicans also split pretty thin).  This district would likely elect a Democrat.  Then Democrats will likely force Republicans to create fairer distrist in Dallas.  This would likely require linedrawers to "unpack" some minority voters that are segregated into the TX-30 in order to keep them from having any significant influence in nearby districts.  

Don't disagree, though some compromise may be worked out in that situation, especially considering where the new CDs are going to be.

Republicans will likely get the new districts, while Democrats would be given a shot at some of the existing districts as Republican territory is pared away to create new ones. 

[Mr.Phips]

Pretty good list.  The only thing I would change would be VA-11 and NY-25.  I just dont see anyway Republicans hold those increasingly Dem seats without incumbents.  I would move them to lean dem pickup. 

[Mr.Phips]

Pretty good list.  The only thing I would change would be VA-11 and NY-25.  I just dont see anyway Republicans hold those increasingly Dem seats without incumbents.  I would move them to lean dem pickup. 

1. NY-25:  You can certainly make a good case on that one.  Here, I am just being a tad conservative, but it could well be moved and probably will be long-term.

2. VA-11:  Have to disagree.  I know about the "trend" and let's face it, Dems selected the right candidate in Connelly over Byrne, but the fact is that this CD is still quite marginal in my book (even with the trend) and more importantly, I am not going to seriously think about moving it when the GOP candidate has $1 million in the bank.  Especially not at this early point.  You know, if the Dems would have nominated Byrne, the money factor and her weakness as a candidate probably would have had me place it on the other side of the tossup line.  Let's see, time will tell...

If Obama comes anywhere even close to winning Virginia, he will carry VA-11 by at least 10 points, which will make it almost impossible for the Republican to win. 

[Mr.Phips]

Interesting KS-03 fundraising numbers:
                                                          Q2        CoH
KS-03     Dennis Moore     D-inc.     $336     $1,140     
KS-03    Nick Jordan    R                 $472    $616    

Jordan may be the toughest foe Moore has ever faced. In 1998, Moore defeated ultra-conservative freshman Congressman Vince Snowbarger. In 2002, the infamous Phill Kiline lost by 3%. Two years later, the NRCC's star recruit here lost in the GOP primary, but the primary winner held Moore to a 50%-47%. The last two cycles have ended with double-digit Moore wins over conservative candidates.

Now the GOP has found a moderate from Johnson County to run against Moore. If Jordan had run in 2002, he might be running for reelection now. While Jordan is the right fit for the district, he still faces the twin challenges of incumbency (Moore finally appears to be ensconced here) and the political climate.

I've bumped this race up to #17th most likely Democratic seat to flip.

I dont know.  If Moore could survive in 2002, which was a pretty bad year for Democrats and then he faced moderate, pro-choice Adam Taff, I think he should be fine in 2008.  Johnson is really no moderate, he is pro-life(which is out of step with this socially moderate district) and doesnt seem to be very charismatic. 

Keep in mind that the last Republican to hold this district for a long time, Jan Myers(1984-1996) was strongly pro-choice. 

[Mr.Phips]

Interesting KS-03 fundraising numbers:
                                                          Q2        CoH
KS-03     Dennis Moore     D-inc.     $336     $1,140     
KS-03    Nick Jordan    R                 $472    $616    

Jordan may be the toughest foe Moore has ever faced. In 1998, Moore defeated ultra-conservative freshman Congressman Vince Snowbarger. In 2002, the infamous Phill Kiline lost by 3%. Two years later, the NRCC's star recruit here lost in the GOP primary, but the primary winner held Moore to a 50%-47%. The last two cycles have ended with double-digit Moore wins over conservative candidates.

Now the GOP has found a moderate from Johnson County to run against Moore. If Jordan had run in 2002, he might be running for reelection now. While Jordan is the right fit for the district, he still faces the twin challenges of incumbency (Moore finally appears to be ensconced here) and the political climate.

I've bumped this race up to #17th most likely Democratic seat to flip.

Perhaps. Jordan is a  "moderate"  in the sense that he is a nonentity who has not taken part in the factional squabbles in the State Senate. Unfortunately, his effort to unite the Johnson CO GOP is going to be nuked by Phil Kline's run for DA. Kline is going to win a nasty primary, and then he is going to go down in flames in the general in a area he lost by 30 points two years ago.

Normally a local race would not have coattails in a Presidential year, but Kline is currently breaking the local party to pieces, and Jordan allowed himself to be sucked in on Kline's side earlier this year. It was probably a smart decision in the short run because opposing Kline might have triggered a far-right challenge, but it undid most of Jordan's moderate credentials. If Moore is smart he will make Kline's antics the issue, as Kline has become an enormously polarizing figure.

Ah... Phill Kline, a mesmerizingly charismatic public speaker who espouses views to the right of Sam Brownback's, whose mercurial career has yet to reach its eventual nadir.   Now Kline is trying to replace the Johnson County DA who replaced him as AG. I agree with your assessment of Kline's chance. Kline's presence on the ballot with hurt Jordan a little, but I doubt it will cost him the election. Voters know that Jordan is a "mod" and Kline is a"con," they'll distinguish between the two.

I expect Jordan to pull 45%-47% of the vote. If Jordan exceeds Kline's 2000 performance (which was before Kline went off the ideological deep end),  KS-03 will be one of the hottest races of the 2010 cycle. Moore may even retire if he barely wins in such a Democratic year.

2010 depends on who is elected President.  If its Obama, Moore could be in real trouble.  If its McCain, expect Moore's 2010 perecentage to increase. 

[Mr.Phips]

I don't know, for some reason I don't see Musgrave losing reelection.

Musgrave's going to suddenly start to get an ouch of political talent?

No, but the Cook PVI in the district seems too slanted to the Republicans for Markey to win.  I dunno.

The district is clearly moving to the Democrats.  Musgrave's margin of victory has gotten thinner and thinner in every election since her first in 2002.  Just look at Larimer county that makes almost half of the district's votes and is the fastest growing in the district.  George W. Bush won it by just 52%-47% in 2004 after he won it 53%-39% in 2000 and even Bob Dole won it by five points in 1996.  Obama will almost surely carry it by at least a few points and that will surely help Markey. 

[Mr.Phips]

I don't know, for some reason I don't see Musgrave losing reelection.

Musgrave's going to suddenly start to get an ouch of political talent?

No, but the Cook PVI in the district seems too slanted to the Republicans for Markey to win.  I dunno.

The district is clearly moving to the Democrats.  Musgrave's margin of victory has gotten thinner and thinner in every election since her first in 2002.  Just look at Larimer county that makes almost half of the district's votes and is the fastest growing in the district.  George W. Bush won it by just 52%-47% in 2004 after he won it 53%-39% in 2000 and even Bob Dole won it by five points in 1996.  Obama will almost surely carry it by at least a few points and that will surely help Markey. 

Uh, Bush won the district 58-41.  The only reason Larimer swung so much to Kerry was because the Nader votes (which constituted a high amount of votes in county in 2000) broke hard for Kerry in 2004.

McCain will be lucky to win it by five this year.  Larimer went from 53% in 2000 to just 52% for Bush in 2004 and the county is growing rapidly. 

[Mr.Phips]

Do you believe the PPP poll that shows Foxx up by just 2% in NC-05? The Democratic candidate is a teacher who is running an innovative campaign, yet hasn't received any IE help from the DCCC. This may sound familiar (shades of Kissell in '06), but Kissell was in a more marginal district than Carter is in. 

I'm unsure as to whether this seat is actually competitive, which is why I've placed in the Potentially Competitive (R) category.

I dont think any Democrat would ever win NC-05 in its present form.  Democrats drew it to keep Republicans out of NC-12 and NC-13 and pack as many Republicans as possible in NC-05.  If Democrats were to redraw the district to include all of Forsyth county and cut out heavily Republican counties like Wilkes and Iredell like they did up until the early 1990s, Foxx would likely be toast. 

[Mr.Phips]

FINAL PREDICTIONS(not complete)

SENATE 2008 (56 Democrats, 42 Republicans, 2 Independents)
WINNER IN RED

Alabama: Figures (D) 35, Sessions (R) 65 GOP HOLD
Alaska: Begich (D) 50, Stevens (R) 45, Others 5 DEM PICKUP
Arkansas: Pryor (D) 92, Others 8 DEM HOLD
Colorado* Udall (D) 53, Schaffer 45, Others 2 DEM PICKUP
Delaware: Biden (D) 65, O'Connell (R) 35 DEM HOLD
Georgia: Martin (D) 46, Chambliss (R) 49, Others 5 SENT TO RUNOFF (GOP HOLD)
Idaho* LaRocco (D) 39, Risch (R) 58, Others 3 GOP HOLD (humor prediction)
Illinois: Durbin (D) 63, Sauerberg (R) 35, Others 2 DEM HOLD
Iowa: Harkin (D) 59, Reed (R) 41 DEM HOLD
Kansas: Slattery (D) 38, Roberts (R) 59, Others 3 GOP HOLD
Kentucky: Lunsford (D) 47, McConnell 53 GOP HOLD
Louisiana:Landrieu (D) 53, Kennedy 46, Others 1 DEM HOLD
Maine: Allen (D) 43, Collins (R) 57 GOP HOLD
Massachusetts: Kerry (D) 61, Beatty (R) 36, Others 3 DEM HOLD
Michigan: Levin (D) 60, Hoogendyk (R) 38, Others 1 DEM HOLD
Minnesota: Franken (D) 40, Coleman (R) 43, Barkley (I) 16, Others 1 GOP HOLD
Mississippi - A: Fleming (D) 37, Cochran (R) 63 GOP HOLD
Mississippi - B: Musgrove (D) 46, Wicker (R) 54 GOP HOLD
Montana: Baucus (D) 65, Kelleher (R) 33, Others 2 DEM HOLD
Nebraska* Kleeb (D) 36, Johanns (R) 61, Others 3 GOP HOLD
New Hampshire: Shaheen (D) 52, Sununu (R) 47, Others 1 DEM PICKUP
New Jersey: Lautenberg (D) 55, Zimmer (R) 43, Others 2 DEM HOLD
New Mexico* Udall (D) 56, Pearce (R) 43, Others 1 DEM PICKUP
North Carolina: Hagan (D) 51, Dole (R) 47, Others 2 DEM PICKUP
Oklahoma: Rice 39 (D), Inhofe (R) 58, Others 3 GOP HOLD
Oregon: Merkley (D) 50, Smith (R) 45, Others 5 DEM PICKUP
Rhode Island: Reed (D) 78, Tingle (R) 22 DEM HOLD
South Carolina: Conley (D) 43, Graham (R) 57 GOP HOLD
South Dakota: Johnson (D) 59, Dykstra (R) 40, Others 1 DEM HOLD
Tennessee: Tuke (D) 37, Alexander (R) 61, Others 2 GOP HOLD
Texas: Noriega (D) 43, Cornyn (R) 55, Others 2 GOP HOLD
Virginia* Warner (D) 59, Gilmore (R) 38, Other 3 DEM PICKUP
West Virginia: Rockefeller (D) 64, Wolfe (R) 36 DEM HOLD
Wyoming - A: Rothfuss (D) 31, Enzi (R) 69 GOP HOLD
Wyoming - B: Carter (D) 34, Barrasso (R) 66 GOP HOLD

HOUSE 2008

Likely DEM PICKUP
AK-AL
AZ-01*
CA-04*
CO-04
CT-04
FL-08
FL-24
IL-10
IL-11*
IN-03
MI-07
MI-09
NC-08
NJ-03*
NM-01*
NM-02*
NV-03
NY-13*
NY-25*
NY-29
OH-15*
OH-16*
PA-03
VA-11*

GOP PICKUP
FL-16
KS-02
PA-11
TX-22

DEM HOLDS
AL-05*
NH-01
PA-08
PA-10
PA-12
WI-08

GOP HOLDS
FL-25
LA-04* (runoff)
MD-01*
MN-03*
MN-06
MO-06
NJ-07*
OH-01
VA-02
WA-08
WV-02
WY-AL

You really think Chabot in OH-01 can hold on with such swelled African American turnout?  I think he is toast. 

[Mr.Phips]

The Kilroy win is a big victory for Democrats.  This is the kind of seat that they will be able to hold for a long time.